Properties of Census Dual System Population Size Estimators

We study parametric and non‐parametric approaches for assessing the accuracy and coverage of a population census based on dual system surveys. The two parametric approaches being considered are post‐stratification and logistic regression, which have been or will be implemented for the US Census dual system surveys. We show that the parametric model‐based approaches are generally biased unless the model is correctly specified. We then study a local post‐stratification approach based on a non‐parametric kernel estimate of the Census enumeration functions. We illustrate that the non‐parametric approach avoids the risk of model mis‐specification and is consistent under relatively weak conditions. The performances of these estimators are evaluated numerically via simulation studies and an empirical analysis based on the 2000 US Census post‐enumeration survey data.     

基于过程管理视角的开放式创新关系治理研究

开放式创新集价值创造与价值获取于一体,对于促进合作研发与创新成果转化具有积极作用。但是,创新主体间目标分歧、利益冲突等关系治理问题影响创新绩效与商业化成败,已成为制约开放式创新实践的主要障碍。基于“知识搜索→知识整合→商业化”的过程管理视角,考察了开放式创新关系治理问题的表现与产生机理,发现解决关系治理问题的关键是维护价值创造与价值获取间动态均衡,提出了以信任及关系规范为主体的关系治理机制理论框架,并从合作关系的内在规则与外在行为两个方面论证了关系治理机制的作用效果。     

规制俘获理论跨学科研究进展述评

规制俘获理论是刻画政府规制过程中各利益集团相互行为关系的理论,它将经济学的有关理论及分析方法引入对政府规制目标和效果的研究,从而大大拓展了规制研究的视野。随着规制环境的变化,规制俘获理论研究呈现出跨学科、跨边界、跨层次的趋势,管理学、法学、政治学和社会学与经济学中规制俘获理论的交叉、融合,发展了许多新的研究内容和领域。本文从规制俘获的前因、方式、结果和治理措施等方面对这些领域的理论基础、研究范式和最新进展进行介绍,并结合现有各学科研究的特点与不足,提出为形成科学的理论体系,在未来研究中需要进一步拓展的方向。     

Faltering fisheries and ascendant aquaculture: Implications for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh has made considerable progress against human development indicators in recent years, but malnutrition resulting from poor dietary diversity and low micronutrient intakes remains entrenched. Fish is central to the Bangladeshi diet and small fish species are an important micronutrient source. Although fish consumption per capita has increased in recent years as a result of rapid expansion of aquaculture, it is likely that consumption of fish from capture fisheries (including small indigenous species particularly rich in micronutrients), has declined. This paper evaluates data on fish consumption collected in Bangladesh by the International Food Policy Research Institute in 1996/7 and 2006/7 to assess changing patterns of fish consumption and their implications for food and nutrition security. This analysis indicates that growth of aquaculture has been positive, mitigating a sharp reduction in the quantity of fish consumed from capture fisheries and smoothing out seasonal variability in consumption. However, increased availability of fish from aquaculture may not have fully compensated for the loss of fish from capture fisheries in terms of dietary diversity, micronutrient intakes and food and nutrition security, particularly for the poorest consumers. A range of approaches are recommended to sustain and enhance the contributions capture fisheries and aquaculture make to food and nutrition security in Bangladesh     

Using Video Surveys to Access Dispersed Backcountry Visitors' Norms

Image Capture Technology (ICT), or the capture and editing of photographic images using microcomputers, has been used in a variety of settings to assess social and ecological impacts. This study illustrates the application of this technology in a VHS videotape survey designed to assess visitors' norms for varying numbers of watercraft, sounds from aircraft and motorized boats, and the acceptability of floating outfitting camps. Acceptability ratings for three setting contexts (access areas, attraction sites, and wild places) within Gwaii Haanas National Park Reserve, British Columbia, were evaluated. Methodologically, use of the videotape survey proved to be a cost effective vehicle in evaluating both sight and sound impacts. More than 75% of the respondents indicated that the images served as useful reminders of their visit and helped them articulate their norms. These normative standards were consistent with other studies conducted in backcountry areas. The implications of this technology for addressing natural resource management issues are discussed.     

A Review of the Use of Conditional Likelihood in Capture‐Recapture Experiments

We present a modern perspective of the conditional likelihood approach to the analysis of capture‐recapture experiments, which shows the conditional likelihood to be a member of generalized linear model (GLM). Hence, there is the potential to apply the full range of GLM methodologies. To put this method in context, we first review some approaches to capture‐recapture experiments with heterogeneous capture probabilities in closed populations, covering parametric and non‐parametric mixture models and the use of covariates. We then review in more detail the analysis of capture‐recapture experiments when the capture probabilities depend on a covariate.     

Economic marginalism and the microstate,the impact of donor conditionality requirements in international aid programmes on a SHRM training project in the Cook Islands

Donor conditionality involves the formal terms and commitments under which major international aid agencies, such as the World Bank and the IMF grant aid or arrange loans for developing countries. In doing so, said agencies have tended to emulate, as a matter of policy, private-sector market reforms based on the contemporary neoclassical model. As a consequence, donor conditionality tends to place formalized and regular stress on inflationary control, privatization of publicly owned equity and the deregulation of public-sector employment. In turn, the functional utility of strategic human resource management as a vehicle able to obtain major change-related outcomes has tended to give it an important role in the implementation process. This paper reports on events that took place in the Cook Islands, a central Pacific microstate, during a university-based training course for public service managers in which the government imposed on a virtual exercise the full weight of real decisionmaking process. It will attempt to place this action in a larger context by, first, critically examining the tendency for SHRM initiatives to be distorted - a situation that arises when the requirements of donor conditionality do not fit the economic, social and cultural conditions in which they are to be applied. It will conclude by reviewing some of the issues to be debated should the tendency to use a single model of reform be replaced by a more country-friendly programme of requirements.     

Trade-mediated biotechnology transfer and its effective absorption: an application to the U.S. forestry sector

In this paper, we analyze the consequences of biotechnology innovations in the United States forest sector (logging) by modeling technology transfer embodied in trade flows and its absorption. A seven-region, seven-traded-commodity version of a dynamic computable general equilibrium model is used to achieve this task. A 0.63% Hicks-neutral biotechnological progress in the source region (U.S.) has differential impacts on the productivity of the log-using sectors in the domestic as well as in the recipient regions. Since recipient regions' ability to utilize biotechnology innovations depends on their absorptive capacity (AC) and structural similarity (SS), we construct the AC and SS indices based on multiplicity of factors such as human capital endowments, skill content and social appropriateness of the new innovations. The model results show that biotechnological innovations in the U.S. forest sector result in a significant increase in timber production. Following the productivity improvements and its embodied spillover, wood products and pulp and paper sectors in the U.S. register higher productivity growth. The role of AC and SS in capturing technical change is shown to be evident. In the face of growing regulations on timber production from public forests, increasing productivity through biotechnology may be the most effective way to meet the consumer demand for forest products.     

政府管制俘虏理论对我国非法小煤矿监管的启示

运用"政府管制俘虏理论"来解释当前非法小煤矿大量存在的问题,被管制者矿主通过不同的手段对政府管制者进行寻租俘虏,诱使管制者目标出现多元化,制定对他们有利的措施并利用这些措施为自身谋取私利,这是俘虏行为发生的原因.