Permit markets,carbon prices and the creation of innovation clusters

Innovation clusters combining public and private effort to develop breakthrough technologies promise greater technological advances to slow down climate change. We use a multi-country model with an emission trading system to examine whether and how international climate policy can incentivize countries to create such innovation clusters. We find that a minimal carbon price is needed to attract applied research firms, but countries may nevertheless fail to invest in complementary research infrastructure. We construct a mechanism that leads to innovation clusters when emissions targets are set before uncertainty surrounding technological developments is resolved. It is a combination of low permit endowments for the country with the lowest costs to build the needed infrastructure, compensation for this country by profits from permit trade, and maximal possible permit endowments for the remaining countries. We outline how the EU-ETS can be further refined according to this mechanism.     

新一轮税改致力于完成的六大任务

启动新一轮税制改革,首先必须明确它所要完成的任务。这些任务包括:恰当界定宏观税负水平;政府收入行为及其机制的规范化;融入经济全球化;与财政安排体系相协调;税收中性与税收调控相结合;提升国家竞争力。     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

Impacts of an EC carbon/energy tax and deregulating thermal power supply on CO2, SO2 and NOx emissions

Emission of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x are all closely linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Here we report on simulations done by linking a Sectoral European Energy Model (SEEM), covering energy demand in nine Western European countries, with the emission-transport-deposition model RAINS developed by IIASA. The study analyses emissions of CO₂, SO₂ and NO_x, deposition of sulphur and nitrogen and the extent of areas where the critical load for sulphur is exceeded in year 2000 under four different energy scenarios. Two different sets of future behavioural patterns for the thermal electric power production sector are considered. In one regime, called the plan-efficient regime, the sector is assumed to follow official plans with regard to investment in new capacity. In the other regime, called the cost-efficient regime, the thermal power sector is assumed to behave in a cost minimizing manner. The effects of the proposed EC carbon/energy tax are studied under both regimes, giving rise to altogether four scenarios.In both regimes the effect of the EC tax is to reduce emissions by between 6 and 10 per cent in year 2000 relative to the scenarios without the tax. A change of regime, from the regulated, plan-efficient regime to the market-based, cost-efficient regime, will, by itself, reduce emissions of CO₂ and NO_x by approximately 3 per cent, while SO₂ emissions are reduced by 13 per cent. The EC tax will reduce sulphur deposition by more than 5 per cent in the nine model countries under the plan-efficient regime. A change of regime further reduces the total deposition by 9 per cent. The area where depositions exceed the critical load is reduced by approximately 6 per cent in year 2000 by the tax in both regimes. Changing from the plan-efficient to the cost-efficient regime has a similar impact.Although the emission reductions due to the EC tax may seem modest, they are shown to have a sizeable effect on the technological abatement costs of reaching targets like those prescribed in the Sofia protocol on the stabilisation of NO_x emissions, and the Helsinki protocol on SO₂ emission reductions. This is part of what can be considered to be secondary benefits of the EC carbon/energy tax.     

关于宏观调控若干问题的思考

宏观调控是一个中性概念。宏观调控本身就包含了限制与发展、紧缩与扩张、后退与前进几方面的内容。1992年正式提出向建立社会主义市场经济体制过渡以后，市场经济意义的宏观调控逐步走上历史舞台。从1993年到2003年，中国经济经过了紧缩性和扩张性两轮正相反的宏观调控。目前，中国经济进入新一轮的上升周期。此轮宏观调控转向“中性”政策。所谓“中性”政策，是相对于扩张性政策和紧缩性政策而言的，是一种有保有压、有紧有松、上下微调、松紧适度的政策。“软着陆”的经济含义是，国民经济的运行经过一段过度扩张以后，平稳地回落到适度增长区间。目前，中国的经济增长率和物价上涨率都在正常区间，所以整体上不存在所谓“软着陆”问题。     

碳纤维加固技术在实际工程中的应用

由于具有自重轻、强度高、工期短、造价低、施工简便等优点,碳纤维复合材料(CFRP)在建筑梁、板、柱、墙等的加固工程中得到广泛应用.文中在对长春市生物制品研究所制药车间因增加设备荷载进行评估的基础上,提出了采用碳纤维布加固技术对其而需对框架梁进行加宽加固,以满足该车间要求的使用功能的需要.其加固工艺可为同类型框架梁加固提供参考.     

机械设备故障监测与诊断系统综述

主要介绍了机械设备故障监测与诊断系统以及故障诊断的常用方法，并分析各种诊断方法的优缺点，最后简要指出了故障诊断技术的发展方向。     

Valuing and Pricing Retail Leases with Renewal and Overage Options

We consider retail leases with landlord overages options, with tenant renewal options, with both and with neither. We illustrate how the ratio of initial expected sales to the sales threshold can be manipulated to equate the value of the landlord overage options to that of the tenant renewal option at the same initial rent. Not only are the values equal, but the cumulative distributions of potential IRRs on the two leases are nearly identical, suggesting that these leases are equally attractive to risk-averse investors and thus that the same risky discount rate can be used in valuing the leases. In contrast, the appropriate risky discount rate for the overage lease is calculated to be 75–160 basis points greater than that for the renewal lease.     

Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

传统能源及碳交易价格与新能源股价——基于VAR和CAPM-GARCH模型的分析

文章构建VAR模型和CAPM-GARCH模型,分析检验了2010年7月初至2013年底期间传统能源和碳排放权交易价格对国内新能源上市公司股价波动的影响及新能源股票收益率的波动特点,研究发现:国内煤价对新能源公司股价有显著的正向影响,而国际油价的影响不显著;碳排放权交易价格也是引起新能源投资价值从而上市公司股价变动的重要因素;新能源公司股价指数对高科技股价指数并不敏感,反映出国内新能源上市公司科技含量不足,资本市场关注更多的是新能源的概念而非技术优势;国内新能源股票整体的系统风险在1.125~1.131之间,利好消息比利空消息能引起新能源股票收益率更大的波动。