Catching up and falling behind,a vintage model approach

The literature on catching up suggests that due to diffusion and imitation, relatively backward countries should grow at a faster rate. A model along lines suggested by Abramovitz is constructed to examine this. A country's change in productivity (technological gap) is supposed to depend on the productivity gap itself (relatively backwardness), social capability of adopting new technology, and R&D-activity. Together with a vintage growth model, this set-up gives a lot of different possible explanations of why growth rates differ among nations. The possibilities of both catching up and falling behind are considered.     

Voting requirements, concessions, international side payments and the European Monetary Union

This paper addresses the question of criteria for selection of EMU members. We identify two factors in the decision process: (1) The costs and benefits which the individual countries attribute to alternative EMU arrangements (`hard-core', medium-sized, all EU members), and (2) the binding institutional restrictions, i.e., the distribution of votes in the European Council and the minimum vote requirements. Within this framework the EU countries are assigned to different groups according to their degree of convergence. Based on stability concessions and side payments these groups decide on the final EMU composition. We show that minimum vote requirements can lead to a suboptimal size of the EMU and can threaten the feasibility of a multi-speed monetary union.     

Analyzing a panel of seasonal time series: Does seasonality in industrial production converge across Europe?

In this paper we consider deterministic seasonal variation in quarterly industrial production for several European countries, and we address the question whether this variation has become more similar across countries over time. Due to economic and institutional factors, one may expect convergence across business cycles. When these have similar characteristics as seasonal cycles, one may perhaps also find convergence in seasonality. To this aim, we propose a method that is based on treating the set of production series as a panel. By testing for the relevant parameter restrictions for moving window samples, we examine the hypothesis of convergence in deterministic seasonality while allowing for seasonal unit roots. Our main empirical finding is that there is no evidence for convergence in seasonality.     

改革以来中国农村发展地区差距分析

本文在扩展农业部门新古典经济增长模型的基础上,构建了基于农业生产率指数和农村地区劳动力就业结构的农村发展指标,以此来衡量农村发展水平及其变化状况.为了考察中国农村发展地区差距的变化趋势,我们采用面板数据单位根检验的不同方法对其收敛性进行了严格的计量检验.检验结果显示,在考虑了时间和省份特殊效应、序列相关等因素的影响后,中国各省农村发展差距以及东中西部地区农村发展的内部差距均存在条件性β收敛.     

技术效率、资本深化与地区差异——基于随机前沿模型的中国地区收敛分析

本文提出了基于随机前沿生产函数的地区增长差异分析框架,将各地区劳均产出差距分解为劳均资本差异、经济规模差异和全要素生产率差异三个部分。利用改革时期的省级数据,本文发现尽管要素投入仍然是中国经济增长的主要源泉,但全要素生产率是造成地区差异的重要原因,在地区劳均产出差异中的贡献份额不断提高,将成为今后中国地区增长差异的主要决定力量。而且,1990年以来中国地区全要素生产率呈现出绝对发散趋势,严重的技术扩散壁垒加剧了体制转轨过程中的“马太效应”,短期内地区差距不会随经济发展而缩小,政府需要通过适当的政策对地区发展进行调节,尤其要促进地区间技术扩散,使各地区更好地分享技术创新和体制创新的成果。     

公司治理、会计环境与会计准则国际趋同

本文分析了公司治理、会计环境与会计准则国际趋同的内在关系,认为会计准则国际趋同的实现有赖于完善的公司治理与相关的会计环境适应机制。会计准则国际趋同的实现也会推动公司治理的完善,并为保证会计准则国际趋同有效实行提供了新思路。     

中国经济增长空间相关性研究——基于"长三角"与"珠三角"的实证

本文建立了两套回归模型:无空间相关变量的单向和双向固定效应模型;有空间相关变量的单向和双向固定效应模型。对比分析后得出的结论有:"长三角"和"珠三角"区域内部的确存在经济增长的空间相关性,"珠三角"区域内部经济增长的空间相关性略大于"长三角"区域,但两者在统计上并没有显著的差别;两个地区都存在经济增长的β收敛,但"珠三角"地区呈现出更强的收敛性;对于影响"长三角"和"珠三角"经济增长的因素,有些相同和不同点值得关注。     

中国的经济发展战略与地区收入差距

本文认为 ,当前中国大陆各省区市之间发展水平差距的主要原因在于 ,重工业优先发展的赶超战略下形成的生产要素存量配置结构 ,与许多省区市的要素禀赋结构决定的比较优势相违背 ,从而导致大量的赶超企业缺乏自生能力。基于各省区市的数据进行的实证研究与我们的假说相容。     

试析媒介融合背景下二维码对广告业的影响

在媒介融合的时代背景下,手机广告作为一种新兴的广告形式日益引起人们广泛关注。相对于传统媒体广告,二维码广告具有受众卷入程度高、传播内容立体化、较强的伴随性和互动性等特点。本文从精确测定广告效果、精准定位消费者、拓宽广告营销渠道、改变广告传播方式等四方面探讨了二维码对广告业的影响,并预测随着互联网的发展、智能手机的普及、3G服务的渗透,手机直接访问互联网将越来越便利,二维码这一新型广告形式将大有作为。     

Aid econometrics: Lessons from a stochastic growth model

This paper evaluates the standard empirical methods employed in the study of foreign aid, when the data generating process is a calibrated stochastic growth model in which aid recipients make optimal investment and consumption decisions. When recipients receive a stochastic flow of aid and wish to smooth consumption, standard methods fail to distinguish between the response to transient and permanent aid shocks, and hence yield misleading results concerning the object of interest to policy makers: the long-run impact of aid.