Strategies to offset dissatisfactory product performance: The role of post-purchase marketing

This research examines the role of post-purchase recovery initiatives in offsetting the negative effect of a dissatisfactory product experience. Experiment 1 explores the effect of counterfactual thinking, a mental simulation process of reflecting upon past events and generating alternative possible outcomes, on product evaluations after an individual experiences a negative purchase outcome. Experiment 2 builds on these findings and shows how customer surveys can be used as tactical tools to boost post-purchase product evaluations. The results indicate that post-purchase marketing efforts, such as customer surveys, can engage consumers in counterfactual thinking and positively affect their product evaluations.     

参与电商会促进猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳吗?——基于倾向得分匹配的反事实估计

本文利用陕西、四川两省686户猕猴桃种植户的调查数据,在采用变异系数法度量猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳程度的基础上,利用倾向得分匹配法构建反事实框架,实证分析参与电商对猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳的影响效应。结果表明:猕猴桃种植户绿色生产子技术的重要性依次为测土配方施肥技术、物理防治技术、套袋技术、无公害农药使用技术、有机肥施用技术;在控制样本选择偏差后,参与电商对猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳有显著的正向影响;参与电商对不同资本禀赋的猕猴桃种植户绿色生产技术采纳的促进效应存在差异;参与电商通过提升产品价格预期、提升经济收益水平、提升信息获取能力、追求正向社会评价四条路径来影响猕猴桃种植户的绿色生产技术采纳。     

税收优惠政策与高技术产业创新效率

研究目标：分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响以及创新效率的收敛性,测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究方法：构建随机前沿模型测度高技术产业的创新效率,采用σ收敛和β收敛检验方法检验创新效率收敛性,并采用反事实计量方法测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究发现：税收优惠政策对研发效率有显著正影响,对市场转化效率的影响为正但不显著,政策实施后效率分布也更集中;研发效率的收敛主要是由东中西地区内部之间差距的缩小造成的,而市场转化效率的收敛是由三大地区内部差距的缩小以及中西部和东部地区的差距缩小共同造成的;税收优惠政策使研发效率大约上升了8%～10%,带来的创新产出占总产出的比重也一直维持在10%以上。研究创新：从效率水平和收敛性两个角度来定量分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响。研究价值：为更好地采取措施提高创新效率和减小地区创新效率差距提供经验证据。     

Causality: a Statistical View

Statistical aspects of causality are reviewed in simple form and the impact of recent work discussed. Three distinct notions of causality are set out and implications for densities and for linear dependencies explained. The importance of appreciating the possibility of effect modifiers is stressed, be they intermediate variables, background variables or unobserved confounders. In many contexts the issue of unobserved confounders is salient. The difficulties of interpretation when there are joint effects are discussed and possible modifications of analysis explained. The dangers of uncritical conditioning and marginalization over intermediate response variables are set out and some of the problems of generalizing conclusions to populations and individuals explained. In general terms the importance of search for possibly causal variables is stressed but the need for caution is emphasized.     

国有单位工资结构及其就业规模变化的收入分配效应:1988—2007

本文使用1988年、1995年、2002年、2007年CHIP城镇入户调查数据考察国有单位工资结构及其就业规模变化的收入分配效应。为此,本文采用了分位数回归方法、以多重分位数回归为基础的Machado&Mata(2005)反事实分解方法及作者扩展了的方法。各结果表明:国有企业就业份额大幅度下降导致中国城镇工资收入差距显著下降;然而国有企业减员增效改革完成以后,国有企业工资高于非国有企业的幅度及其不合理部分大幅度上升,其结果是城镇工资收入差距扩大。     

郑州航空港经济综合实验区政策效用评估

航空港经济综合实验区作为经济技术开发区的一种重要形式,对内陆地区而言,是抢占现代产业体系制高点、突破地理条件约束、挖掘自身区位优势的全新探索。应用双重差分法评估郑州航空港试验区对区域经济的作用,结果表明：航空港对区域经济增长具有积极贡献。同时结果显示区域经济增长的重要推动力是通过航空港自身大量基础设施等投资实现的,但在短期内整合、带动区域其它资源禀赋方面尚未达到预期效果。在此基础上,从长期着眼,对航空港本身在整合区域资源、改善区内资源禀赋方面提出建议,为其它省份通过航空港建设推动区域经济增长提供借鉴。     

企业投资效率演进与中国总产出波动

本文将企业投资效率的变动过程引入包含名义和实际刚性等多种结构特征的新凯恩斯主义宏观模型,并用贝叶斯极大似然方法估计了模型的结构参数。边际数据密度比较结果显示,刚性价格-工资模型能够较好的解释实际数据。同时,我们还就企业投资效率冲击对实际总产出波动的解释力和历史贡献进行了评估,波动性分解的结果说明投资效率冲击对产出波动具有30%以上的解释力,是所有冲击中贡献最大的。历史分解和反事实模拟的结果显示投资效率是动态演化的,在本届政府的两个任期内,投资效率呈现总体改善趋势,相对于十五计划时期,十一五计划时期的投资效率更稳定、效率水平也更高。投资效率改善对2006年后产出增长有显著拉动作用,需要强调的是,如果没有投资效率改善所形成的产出拉动,2008年金融危机所导致的经济衰退要比实际情形严重很多倍。     

Seeing and Doing: the Concept of Causation

This note is an extended review of the book by Judea Pearl (2000) on causality, in which the basic concepts therein are explained in a form that statisticians will hopefully appreciate, including some comments on their relevance to inference and decision-making.     

German Monetary Union: An historical counterfactual analysis

This paper views German Monetary Union as a sequence of large asymmetric shocks to the European economies. As such it can be analysed with a large, new-Keynesian macro-econometric model of the relevant economies such as NiGEM. The ‘news’ in the sequence of shocks is assessed by analysing contemporary, NiGEM based, forecasts, and important events are then ‘peeled-off’ in reverse order. The resulting counterfactual history analyses the effects of the collapse of the Soviet economy on the EC and Scandinavian economies, and it is argued that the recession in countries such as Finland was not primarily caused by trade effects. The costs of support programmes for East Germany are then removed, creating a negative fiscal shock. Finally the paper analyses the overall effects of the set of shocks. In each part of the counterfactual history, individuals from forward looking expectations and the authorities operate fiscal solvency rules and target monetary aggregates.     

Whether low-cost-carrier passengers spend more on duty-free goods at the airport? Evidence from Incheon International Airport

With a dramatic growth in the low-cost carrier (LCC) traffic around the world, many airports have built budget terminals to accommodate the LCC flights with cheaper airport charge to the airlines but inferior shopping environment and service quality to the passengers. This study aims to answer the following research questions: i). Whether the LCC passengers have higher purchasing power than FSC (full-service carrier) passengers for the airport concessions, particularly the duty-free goods? ii). Would the budget terminal design contribute to or jeopardize the LCC passengers' airport concession expenditure? iii). How could the airport operator maximize its concession revenue by re-designing terminal or re-allocating flight slots? We collect the actual airport duty-free transaction data from Incheon International Airport (ICN) for an empirical investigation. Our empirical evidence first suggests that LCC passengers could have comparable or even higher purchasing power than FSC passengers in consuming duty-free goods at the airport. Among all the LCC passengers, Chinese have the highest purchasing power. Second, the inferior shopping environment and service quality of budget terminal seriously jeopardize the duty-free sales from the LCC passengers. Third, counterfactual analyses show that, if ICN could convert its budget terminal into a conventional terminal, 44 million USD more duty-free sales can be generated per year. Even keeping the current terminal design, re-allocating the LCC flights between the budget terminal and conventional terminal could bring approximately 4.9 million USD more duty-free sales per year. The findings provide managerial implications to ICN and other airports for effective airport revenue management. First, the budget terminal design may not be ideal to accommodate LCC traffic as it damages the concession revenue from particular LCC passengers with high purchasing power. Second, exploring the concession revenue from the growing LCC traffic could help maintain an airport's advantage in aeronautical charge under single-till regulation.