新形势下我国耕地保护的长效机制研究

耕地是人类赖以生存的物质基础，是国民经济和社会发展的宝贵资源，耕地数量的多少和质量优劣直接关系到国家粮食安全和社会稳定。因此，在新形势下，如何保护好有限的耕地资源，促进经济社会科学、合理地发展，已成为当今世界的重大课题。本文根据我国耕地减少的现实危机及原因，提出一套科学、合理的耕地保护长效机制，力求为进一步有效地保护耕地资源提供理论基础和现实途径。     

Evidence on the existence of speculative bubbles in farmland prices

We conduct tests for the contribution of speculative bubbles to farmland prices. These tests are carried out under the hypothesis that farmland investors rationally form expectations. The outcome of tests reported here allows us to infer whether farmland prices are determined by market fundamentals-discounted returns from the highest economic land use-or whether rumors about farmland price movements are self-fulfilling. The tests are stationarity and cointegration tests relating farmland prices to rents. The tests are carried out using data from three farm production regions-the Corn Belt, the Northern Plains, and the Lake States. In each region, we find little evidence to reject the hypothesis that market fundamentals determine farmland prices.     

农地非农化的利益集团及新的农地制度安排

本文将农地①非农化过程中的不同利益主体划分为地方政府、农民、用地单位。通过对这三者的行为目标及其损益进行分析,认为导致征地纠纷的内在根源是不合理的农地产权制度,并为此提出了改革的建议。     

The impact of farmland property rights security on the farmland investment in rural China

This paper aims to estimate the effect of the security of farmland property rights on land-attached and long-term investment. Based on the data from a nationally representative sample with 5887 plots of 1175 households among 5 provinces in rural China, we adopt Probit, Ordinary Least Squares / Tobit, and the household fixed effect methods to yield the consistent results. The results show that the security of farmland property rights have significant and positive effects on the possibility and amount of the overall farmland investment. However, it has different effects on the different types of investments. The share of farmland retained significantly affects the investments in soil quality improvement and changing use of the plots but does not affect the investment in water conservancy facilities. The types of farmland property rights affect investments in water conservancy facilities and changing use of plots, but do not affect investment in soil quality improvement. The findings imply that the Chinese government should be the principal investor in water conservancy facilities and enlarge the operational scale of farmland by facilitating farmland transfer to increase private investment.     

Labor migration and the decoupling of the crop-livestock system in a rural mountainous area: Evidence from Chongqing,China

Massive out-migration of rural labor force brings both challenges and opportunities to crop-livestock integrated production system (crop-livestock system) in smallholder economy. Compared with previous researches that have paid major attention to the effect of labor migration on either crop production or livestock husbandry, this study considers the mediating role of crop production in predicting the effect of labor migration on livestock raising. Our econometric estimation based on a 2012 survey of 974 rural households in Chongqing, a mountainous region of China, showed the following. (1) The massive migration of rural labor force had led to significant increase in farmland abandonment and considerable changes in the pattern of livestock raising. (2) The livestock raising number per household began to differentiate, with the livestock system separating from the traditional crop-livestock system and becoming a specialized business. (3) In terms of the pathways through which rural labor migration exerts impact on livestock raising number, though the increased opportunity costs of rural labor greatly reduced farmers’ willingness to raise livestock, the decoupling of the crop-livestock system partly alleviated the declining trend in the livestock raising number because of the availability of household labor force freed from cropping via farmland abandonment. These findings have important policy implications for rural development and agricultural restructuring in mountainous areas of China, and provide references for other developing countries.     

How do institutional market players matter in farmland pricing?

In this paper we analyse how institutional sellers within the privatisation process shape price formation in agricultural land markets by taking the German reunification as an example. These institutions sell the formerly state owned land within first-price sealed bid auctions, publish calls and obtained prices, and are hypothesised to exploit their market power. Based on the conceptual framework of hedonic pricing models, we use a spatio-temporal modelling approach to empirically quantify these impacts. We thereby control for land productivity characteristics, potential buyers and whether farmers purchase the land. We find that privatisation agencies sell at significantly higher prices, while one agency sells at lower prices to farmers.     

Measuring the effects of preservation on farm profits in a continuous treatment setting

Despite billions of dollars of public appropriations to state purchase of development rights (PDR) programmes, there has been limited evaluation of the effects of these investments on the economic performance of preserved farms. This article estimates dose-response functions to evaluate the effects of enrolment in New Jersey’s PDR programme on farm profitability. The generalized propensity score method in a continuous treatment setting is used to address selection bias arising from voluntary programme participation. Treatment effects are measured across treatment levels to determine whether farm profitability is affected differently across levels of programme participation. Our findings reveal that, relative to unpreserved farms, profit per acre tends to increase along lower treatment levels. The profit per acre of preserved farms in the 1–40% treatment range is, on average, $407 higher than that of unpreserved farms in the full sample. Positive profit differentials averaging between $317 and $472 per acre are also observed in the 1–20%, 1–40% and 1–60% treatment quintiles in the farming occupation sample. We do not observe statistically significant profitability differentials when treatment effects are averaged across all positive treatment values.     

Prioritising land to be preserved for agriculture: A context-specific value tree

In Belgium as in many other countries, agricultural land is under pressure for development of other land uses. This paper presents a method for setting priorities for preservation of land for agriculture. The method is based on a participatory approach through which a value tree is formulated. This results in a list of criteria to define farmland value, which is explicitly linked to the objectives for farmland preservation. The value tree allows the list of criteria to be determined in a structured and consistent way. The participatory process contributes to the development of a shared vision on farmland preservation. The approach also incorporates context specificity, as shown by its application for farmland preservation in Flanders.     

从保护耕地的视角推进武汉城市圈农村土地合理流转

随着我国经济快速发展和城市化进程的加快,农地流转已成为必然趋势。另外,城市圈作为一种新型城市化发展道路,已成为我国城市化进程中的战略选择。由于历史和现实的原因,特别是在现行的土地制度下,推进城市圈农地流转工作难度较大,问题较多。本文在分析武汉城市圈农地流转的现状的基础上,指出了城市圈内农地流转存在的问题,并结合各地区农村土地改革中出现的农地流转创新模式与经验,从保护耕地的视角,提出了推进武汉城市圈农村土地合理流转的对策和建议。     

Tracking urban sprawl: Using spatial data to inform farmland preservation policy

The development of state farmland preservation policies has primarily relied upon results of the Census of Agriculture that is updated every 5 years by the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. Questions about the suitability of the Census of Agriculture center on the measures of total farmland and total cropland as reported by agricultural producers. The reliance on these variables fails to distinguish between conversion to developed uses and other fluctuations in the total availability of farmland. This inability to directly measure farmland conversion to developed uses has been shown to influence state level farmland preservation policies. The policies of Illinois and Indiana highlight the disparate approaches, with Illinois pursuing an intensive policy to protect farmland and Indiana choosing to not address farmland preservation at a state level. In order to assess the suitability of the different approaches to farmland preservation policy it is critical to evaluate the Census of Agriculture data used to justify the policies of Illinois and Indiana.