森林与环境保护

森林在环境保护中的不可替代的作用与国家对林业政策支持之间尚有一定距离，需要国家采取扶持保护政策。     

Predicting bank insolvencies using machine learning techniques

Proactively monitoring and assessing the economic health of financial institutions has always been the cornerstone of supervisory authorities. In this work, we employ a series of modeling techniques to predict bank insolvencies on a sample of US-based financial institutions. Our empirical results indicate that the method of Random Forests (RF) has a superior out-of-sample and out-of-time predictive performance, with Neural Networks also performing almost equally well as RF in out-of-time samples. These conclusions are drawn not only by comparison with broadly used bank failure models, such as Logistic, but also by comparison with other advanced machine learning techniques. Furthermore, our results illustrate that in the CAMELS evaluation framework, metrics related to earnings and capital constitute the factors with higher marginal contribution to the prediction of bank failures. Finally, we assess the generalization of our model by providing a case study to a sample of major European banks.     

对“一退两还”补偿制度的建立与完善问题的思考

"一退两还"即"退耕还林还草",是世纪之交我国政府所确定的一项重大的生态重建工程。由于"一退两还"是一种对既定的经济与生态系统的打破,所以补偿成为新系统建立所不可缺少的重要环节。分析"一退两还"过程中的补偿问题,对确保生态重建效果具有重大意义。文章对此进行了深入的分析,指出了问题所在,在此基础上,给出了可行对策。     

退耕还林的经济学分析及其对策

从经济学的角度对退耕还林政策进行深入分析,探讨退耕还林过程中现行政策执行的内在偏差,并分析出导致执行出现偏差的主要原因在于退耕还林与退耕农户利益之间存在着一定的矛盾,即长远利益与当前利益、外部经济利益与农户利益间的矛盾。在此基础上,有针对性地提出进一步完善退耕还林政策的相关对策措施。     

Estimating the economic value of big game habitat production from prescribed fire using a time series approach

This paper demonstrates a time-series production technique to quantify the deer harvest and deer hunting benefits of controlled burns or prescribed fire. The time series regression model showed a statistically significant and positive effect of prescribed fire on deer harvest. The net economic value of the resulting additional deer hunting benefit was estimated using the Contingent Valuation Method at $ 98 per additional deer harvested. The initial deer hunting benefits of an additional 1,000 acres of prescribed burning are between $ 2,674 and $ 3,128 or $ 2-3 per acre. The costs of prescribed burning greatly exceed these benefits, suggesting that deer hunting benefits represent only a small part of the multiple use benefits of prescribed fire.     

Creating financial value for tropical forests by disentangling people from nature

Efforts to address environmental problems have led to a rapid proliferation of mechanisms for creating financial value for nature. This paper argues that the creation of financial value for nature requires work to disentangle and frame the relation between people and nature so as to render this relation calculable, and that this work acts to alienate people from nature. To pursue and progress this argument, the paper analyses the work of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to establish a mechanism to create financial value for tropical forests based on their capacity to store carbon. The analysis finds that the UNFCCC’s work of disentanglement and framing, so as to render calculable the relation between people and forests, has created conditions that threaten to materially degrade the ecological value of tropical forest biodiversity and the cultural/spiritual value of forests to indigenous peoples. The findings support this paper’s argument that the alienation of people from nature is not simply a consequence of financial valuation, but rather is a necessary prerequisite for creating financial value for nature.     

Who are forest-dependent people? A taxo nomy to aid livelihood and land use decision-making in forested regions

The relationship between forests and people is of substantial interest to peoples and agencies that govern and use them, private sector actors that seek to manage and profit from them, NGOs who support and implement conservation and development projects, and researchers who study these relationships and others. The term ⿿forest-dependent people⿿ is widely used to describe human populations that gain some form of benefits from forests. But despite its long history and widespread use, there are substantial divergences in who the term refers to, what each of its constituent words mean, and how many forest-dependent people there are globally. This paper identifies the range of existing uses and definitions of the term ⿿forest-dependent people⿿, and summarizes them in a systematic taxonomy. Our taxonomy exposes the dimensions that characterize the relationships between people and forests, and leads to two conclusions: First, an absolute, universally accepted definition of the term is untenable. Rather, users of the term ⿿forest-dependent people⿿ need to comprehensively define their population of interest with reference to the context and purpose of their forest- and people-related objectives. The framework and language of our taxonomy aims to aid such efforts. Second, conservation and development program funders, designers, and implementers must reconsider whether forest dependence is an appropriate target for policy objectives.     

新疆林果业产业化发展的现状及对策

林果业是新疆优势突出、特色鲜明、市场前景广阔的优势高效产业,但从农业产业化的角度分析,其发展还存在一些亟待解决的问题。本文立足新疆实际,从分析新疆林果业发展现状入手,探索林果业的产业化经营之路,以使林果业名副其实地成为新疆推进社会主义新农村建设,调整优化农业结构,加速农村经济发展,促进农民增收的支柱产业。     

试论森林资源资产评估中的政府监管

阐述了森林资源资产评估中政府监管存在的监管不力以及森林资源资产评估部门与政府监管部门之间存在的信息不对称问题,并从森林资源资产自身的特殊性分析了问题产生的原因,进而分析政府在森林资源资产评估中应扮演的角色和承担的职能。     

信息不对称、分成契约与超限额采伐--中国国有森林资源变化的理论分析和实证考察

本文回顾了改革开放以来国有林业企业管理体制的演变 ,通过多任务委托代理模型探讨了这一演变过程中利润分成和采伐限额两个不相容的政府政策激励对国有林业企业经营者激励的影响 ,特别是信息不对称条件下其对木材采伐的影响 ,从而解释了国有林业企业普遍存在的超限额采伐的经济原因。通过全国 2 8个省 5次全国森林资源普查的面板数据 ,通过使用国有林业企业的平均面积作为政府与国有林业企业委托—代理关系中信息不对称的代理变量 ,从实证上验证了信息不对称将会导致超限额采伐和国有林资源增长率下降的假说