从“大萧条”看中美两国应对当前金融危机之策

本文站在历史的角度，审视与检讨中关两国政府在应对当前由次贷风暴引发的金融危机中的得与失。历史是一面镜子，发生在20世纪30年代的世界性大萧条与今日美国金融危机在很多方面具有相似之处。以史为鉴，在百年一遇的危机面前，各国政府应携手并进，同舟共济，避免陷入更深的困境。当前的局势为中国充分展示负责任大国的形象提供了契机。     

Supplying trees in an era of environmental uncertainty: Identifying challenges faced by the forest nursery sector in Great Britain

In recent years, numerous articles have addressed management strategies aimed at assisting forests to adapt to climate change. However, these seldom take into account the practical and economic implications of implementing these strategies, notably, supply of forest plants and seed. Using semi-structured interviews with practitioners involved in the plant and seed supply chain in Great Britain, we highlight a series of practical and economic bottlenecks commonly encountered in the supply of locally sourced seed and domestically produced planting stock for native woodland and hedging markets. We find that adoption of alternative seed sourcing strategies, designed specifically to account for directional climate warming, is likely to exacerbate existing problems by adding further complexity to decisions nurseries make about tree species and seed origins to produce. The lack of long-term market predictability brought about by the current configuration of forestry grants and regulations and, in particular, the administrative systems for processing grant applications is identified as a major impediment to having a sustainable and competitive supply of home-grown and currently adapted planting stock. Finally, the time and effort it takes to supply healthy plants for native woodland creation projects deserves much wider recognition throughout the industry and will be crucial if planting objectives are to be met sustainably.     

DSGE forecasts of the lost recovery

The years following the Great Recession were challenging for forecasters. Unlike other deep downturns, this recession was not followed by a swift recovery, but instead generated a sizable and persistent output gap that was not accompanied by deflation as a traditional Phillips curve relationship would have predicted. Moreover, the zero lower bound and unconventional monetary policy generated an unprecedented policy environment. We document the actual real-time forecasting performance of the New York Fed dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model during this period and explain the results using the pseudo real-time forecasting performance results from a battery of DSGE models. We find the New York Fed DSGE model’s forecasting accuracy to be comparable to that of private forecasters, and notably better for output growth than the median forecasts from the FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections. The model’s financial frictions were key in obtaining these results, as they implied a slow recovery following the financial crisis.     

Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

What caused Japan’s Great Stagnation in the 1990s? Evidence from an estimated DSGE model

Despite the widespread belief that Japan’s “Great Stagnation” in the 1990s is due to the financial dysfunction after the collapse of asset price bubbles, Hayashi and Prescott (2002) argue that its main cause is a slowdown in total factor productivity growth, using a calibrated neoclassical growth model. The present paper aims to fill this gap by estimating a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model augmented with a financial accelerator mechanism and associated financial shocks. Our estimation results show that even in the presence of the financial shocks an adverse neutral technology shock mainly induced the Great Stagnation and that the rate of neutral technological change is strongly correlated with all enterprises’ financial position in the Tankan. Based on these findings, the paper argues that the Great Stagnation was caused by an adverse neutral technology shock that is likely to represent a tightening of firms’ financing, which induced reduction of R&D investment and misallocation of resources as indicated in previous literature.     

东日本大地震对日本经济与世界经济的影响

2011年3月11日日本东北地区发生了日本有史以来最大级别9.0级大地震,随之引发了大海啸,对东日本沿海地区造成了严重破坏,夺去了2万多人的生命。更为麻烦的是这次大地震和大海啸还导致了福岛第一核电站的核泄漏,这一次生灾害带来的恶劣影响甚至超过地震和海啸带来的灾难。总体来看,如果核泄漏能够得以控制,其对短期的日本经济影响很大,但程度有限,对世界经济和中国经济的影响也有限,但对日本经济发展的长期影响则不可低估。     

南方长城与"长城文化之旅"的开发

中国南方长城的存在已是不争的事实,苗疆边墙不论在修筑的时间还是在结构和功能上,都与北方长城没有什么两样,不同的是它经过我国湿润的人口密度较大的地区,从而使长城作为历史上中国特定地区不同民族文化之间的功能界线,这一特有的文化背景,在更小的区域内得到了清晰的体现。由于南方长城的存在,凤凰的文化景观形成了差异明显的三大区：民族文化分界区、民族文化分离区和民族文化联合区,它们各自具有鲜明的特色,都是凤凰旅游的重要引力源。本文在挖掘长城文化内涵,诠注凤凰三大文化景观区之间成因联系的基础上,提出以长城文化为旅游主题,以“中国南方长城之旅”为旅游形象,以南方长城和民族文化分合为景观整合的线索,打造中国长城文化旅游精品的思路和措施。     

松嫩低平原盐碱地资源评价及开发潜力研究

文章应用“3S”技术和野外调查相结合方法,对松嫩低平原盐碱地资源现状及其开发潜力进行分区评价.结果表明:研究区现有盐碱地125.6万hm2,轻、中度盐碱地占到盐碱地总面积的70％以上,土壤肥力较高,具有实施“种稻改碱”工程、建设水稻基地的资源优势.杜尔伯特南部、大庆—肇源—肇洲、肇源、泰来片、大安东北、乾安、通榆东北部片、镇赉—泰来等区,盐碱地集中连片,水土资源配置良好,可作为重点开发区规模化发展水稻;大安—通榆—洮南区、镇赉区、林甸区和肇东区的水土资源条件稍差,可适度发展水稻.两者合计具有发展约33.3万hm2水田的资源潜力.大庆—安达—肇州区和通榆—长岭区,草地退化严重,地势相对较高,水资源匮乏,不宜发展水稻,应重点实施草原生态恢复工程.     

海外商会组织与企业公共关系外交

伴随着全球经济一体化进程,各主要国家的商会力量与企业发展紧密结合,成为国际关系、区域与国别研究、跨文化管理活动中的一种组织形态.新世纪以来,在中国企业走出去成为常态的情况下,中国原生的以地缘关系、亲缘关系为特色和纽带的商业文化也随之展现在世界面前.在广泛意义上的企业公共外交中,商会的作用是不能忽视的环节.大中华区德国工商大会(AHK Greater China)是德国工商大会全球系统的组成部分,是大中华区所有德国企业的商会组织,甚至在以DIHK法为主的德国法律框架下,兼有对大中华区德企的部分行政管理职能.本文以大中华区德国工商大会为案例,探讨和比较德式“商会文化”与中式“商帮文化”的异同,在此基础上,对公共外交与商会文化的关系提出三个假设.     

Assessing cost‐effectiveness when environmental benefits are bundled: agricultural water management in Great Barrier Reef catchments

Using economic analysis to prioritise improvements in environmental conditions is particularly difficult when multiple benefits are involved. This includes ‘bundling’ issues in agricultural pollution management, where a change in management action or farming systems generates multiple improvements, such as reductions in more than one pollutant. In this study, we conceptualise and compare two different approaches to analysing cost‐effectiveness when varying bundles of benefits are generated for a single project investment. Each approach requires data to be transformed in some way to allow the analysis to proceed. The index approach requires the transformation on the benefits side so that the effects of multiple pollutant changes can be combined into a measure for each project which can then be compared to costs. By comparison, the disaggregation approach requires the transformation on the costs side where costs for each project have to be apportioned across the different pollutants involved. The paper provides novel insights with an application to agricultural water quality improvements into the Great Barrier Reef in Australia, demonstrating that while both approaches are effective in prioritising projects by cost‐effectiveness, the disaggregation approach provides more insightful results and values that may be relevant for use as upper value guidelines in future project selection.