大宗农产品远期交易市场模式的定位分析——兼论生猪电子盘

对大宗农产品电子交易市场到底是变相现货,还是变相期货的多方质疑,凸现出对这种远期交易商业模式的现实及理论的困惑,以生猪电子盘为例,参照现货交易、期货交易,从市场结构、市场功能、市场合约、市场监管、市场目标五个方面对这种商业模式进行了定位分析,得出结论:大宗农产品电子交易是以现货交易为基础、以远期交易为主体、以期货交易为机制的一种B2B的电子商务平台;并提出相应的政策建议。     

中国生猪产业的金融化推进

中国生猪产业面临自然灾害、疫病传染、市场波动三大风险,因此文章提出金融化推进手段以对冲三大风险.首先厘清中国生猪产业金融化推进的合理性;其次论述如何构筑中国生猪产业金融化推进机制;最后指出如何建设中国生猪产业金融化推进的保障体系.     

平抑大起大落的生猪价格行情的对策

简要介绍经过调查了解到的生猪市场近况,以此为基础分析了生猪价格行情经常大起大落的原因及其所产生的影响,论述了平抑大起大落的生猪价格行情的对策。     

The Collusion-deterring Effect of Pre-attributed Supplies and the Hog Auction in Quebec

The hog/pork industry in Quebec has been going through major institutional changes since 1989, the year an electronic auction was put in place to market all of the hogs in the province. Because the auction's ability to generate high prices did not meet the expectations of hog producers, the pure auction system was replaced by a hybrid one in 1994. In this system, most of the hog supply was pre-attributed to processors at a negotiated price based on the US. price while the remainder of the provincial supply of hogs was sold through the auction. In this paper, we investigate how a seemingly inefficient marketing mechanism like pre-attributions can increase the efficiency of a usually efficient mechanism like an auction. We present theoretical arguments regarding the sustainability of collusion under the pure auction and hybrid systems in addition to analyzing auction prices with modern time series tools.     

The evolution of hog production and potential sources for future growth in China

Following reforms to the market, China’s hog industry has developed rapidly, however, with social and economic transitions, China’s hog industry is facing challenges which might restrict long-term growth in production. This paper analyzes the changes in regional scale, organization, input factors, and technological progress for China’s hog production over the last few decades. The paper seeks to reveal the sources of hog production growth and provide some suggestions for future development of the hog industry. To achieve these aims, the paper uses stochastic frontier production functions and the Malmquist index to measure total factor productivity (TFP) in the hog industry and decompose TFP into technical efficiency; technological progress; scale efficiency; and allocative efficiency using data for 25 provinces from 1980 to 2008. The results show firstly that; the TFP of hog production increased by 64.3% from 1980 to 2008, and allocative efficiency and scale efficiency improvements played a key role in this TFP growth. In contrast, technical efficiency and technical progress have changed little over this period. Secondly, TFP’s contribution to output was 39.7%, it being less than that of factor inputs to output. Thirdly, the results suggest that the growth of China’s pork production depends mostly on the increase in the quantity of factor inputs, especially feed. As a consequence, the key to ensuring long-term and stable development of China’s hog production would seem to involve focusing on enhancing total factor productivity and changing the pattern of production growth.     

酶联免疫分析法测定猪肠衣中磺胺二甲基嘧啶残留量

建立测定猪肠衣中磺胺二甲基嘧啶残留量的ELISA分析法。方法检测低限为5μg/kg;在5μg/kg、20μg/kg和100μg/kg三个添加水平进行加标回收试验,回收率分别为82.0%-96.0%、87.5%-102.0%和83.9%-105%;重复性试验：CV%分别为5.3%、5.3%和8.2%;重现性试验：CV%分别为8.0%、7.9%和7.5%。本方法灵敏度、准确度和精密度均符合残留分析质量控制的要求,适用于猪肠衣中磺胺二甲基嘧啶残留量的快速检测。     

Hedonic prices for the fruit market in Bangladesh: Lessons from guava and hog plum purchase decisions

Fruit consumption in Bangladesh has increased with the awareness of a number of quality attributes for maintaining good health. The purpose of this study is to identify the importance of various quality attributes in consumer decisions to purchase fruit. A total of 222 respondents were interviewed and the data were analyzed using both OLS and robust regression models. The results showed a prevalence of different purchase decisions. The results identify whole fruit form is the most important attribute in deciding to purchase any fruit in Bangladesh. For hog plum in particular, quantity is an important factor in a purchase decision, whereas for guava, the size, colour, lack of blemishes and traceability are important attributes. The results suggest that it may be important for a farming system to remove fruit blemishes or flaws. The implication of the study is that actors involved in the fruit supply chain should develop quality storage and transportation facilities to keep fruit fresh. In addition, they should introduce traceability for fruit to assist in designing effective marketing activities.     

A Spatial Hedonic Approach to Assess the Impact of Swine Production on Residential Property Values

A spatial hedonic model is developed to assess monetary harm of confined animal feeding operations (CAFOs) on property values, taking explicitly into account spatial dependence in property values. Spatial autocorrelation was found in the form of spatial lag dependence, not spatial error dependence. When spatial lag dependence is explicitly taken into account, on average the impact coefficient estimate of a CAFO is reduced by 18%. For example, the impact on the value of the median house ($63,520) 1 mile from a swine facility with 10,000 head fell from  − $6,800 to  − $5,200, or 23.5%. The magnitude of the spatial autoregressive parameter was about 0.2 for the 1-mile distance band, meaning one-fifth of the house value could be explained by the values of the neighboring houses.     

Improving the accuracy of outlook price forecasts

This study investigates the predictive ability of outlook hog price forecasts released by Iowa State University relative to alternative time‐series and market forecasts. Under root mean squared error (RMSE), the futures market forecast is most accurate at the first and second horizon but less accurate than Iowa outlook and the other forecast methods at the third horizon. In terms of the individual time‐series models, some vector autoregressions (VARs) and Bayesian VARs flexible in specification and estimation and model averaging tend to perform better than Iowa outlook forecasts. Evidence from encompassing tests, more stringent tests of forecast performance, indicates that many price forecasts can add incremental information to the Iowa forecast. Simple combinations of these models and outlook forecasts are able to reduce forecast errors by economically significant levels. Overall, the results indicate that it is possible to provide more accurate forecasts than Iowa outlook at every horizon.