The Random Walk Hypothesis in the Emerging Indian Stock Market

This paper examines the random walk hypothesis in the emerging Indian stock market using daily data on individual stocks. The statistical evidence in this paper rejects the random walk hypothesis. The results suggest that daily returns earned by individual stocks and by an equally weighted portfolio show significant non–linear dependence and persistent volatility effects. The non–linear dependence takes the form of ARCH–type conditional heteroskedasticity and does not appear to be caused by nonstationarity of underlying economic variables. Though conditional volatility is time varying, it does not explain expected returns.     

Prediction of the Indian summer monsoon using a stacked autoencoder and ensemble regression model

The study of climatic variables that govern the Indian summer monsoon has been widely explored. In this work, we use a non-linear deep learning-based feature reduction scheme for the discovery of skilful predictors for monsoon rainfall with climatic variables from various regions of the globe. We use a stacked autoencoder network along with two advanced machine learning techniques to forecast the Indian summer monsoon. We show that the predictors such as the sea surface temperature and zonal wind can predict the Indian summer monsoon one month ahead, whereas the sea level pressure can predict ten months before the season. Further, we also show that the predictors derived from a combination of climatic variables can outperform the predictors derived from an individual variable. The stacked autoencoder model with combined predictors of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure can predict the monsoon (June-September) two months ahead with a 2.8% error. The accuracy of the identified predictors is found to be superior to the state-of-the-art predictions of the Indian monsoon.     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

积极开发海洋资源 建设海洋经济强国

海洋是全球生命支持系统的重要组成部分，是人类社会可持续发展的宝贵财富，也是实现国家政治、经济和军事战略的重要舞台。我国是世界上人口最多的沿海国家，也是海洋大国之一，中华民族的可持续发展与兴盛必然越来越多地依赖海洋。开发海洋资源、发展海洋经济、建设海洋经济强国是一项具有战略意义的历史任务。我国具有开发利用海洋的优越条件和战略性需要，应该把海洋开发作为跨世纪治国兴邦的国家发展战略。我国具有方便地进入海洋的区位优势和环境条件，应该成为亲海民族，陆地人均自然资源占有量少，客观上需要把海洋作为后备资源基地，世界历史经验证明，疏远海洋的民族必然落后。积极开发海洋资源，制定蓝色工程计划，发展海洋产业群；开发蓝色国主，建设海洋经济带，用20～30年时间把我国建成海洋经济强国。本文纵横论证了建设海洋经济强国的标准、条件、指导方针和目标、主要任务以及保障措施等，提出了加强海洋意识教育、实施科教兴海战略、建立海洋综合管理体制、实行“依法治海”、建立海洋综合管理的财政保证机制、加强海洋公用基础设施建设、提高公益性服务能力和加强国际合诈等多项具体建议措施，多元化推动我国的海洋经济强国建设。     

Optimum government size and economic growth in case of Indian states: Evidence from panel threshold model

This paper investigates the relationship between optimum government size and economic growth using data of Indian states during 1990-91 to 2017–18. Our results derived from panel threshold regression model show a positive and significant impact of government size on economic growth within the estimated thresholds for both aggregate and sub-panels based on income and regions. Once the government size moves above the upper threshold level, then its impact declines and turns to be insignificant. Thus, our findings suggest the policymakers for maintaining the government size within the thresholds limit.     

Emerging Consensus on Labour Market Institutions and Implications for Developing Countries: From the Debates in India

Abstract

This paper makes a critical intervention to on-going theoretical and policy debates in the economic analysis of labour market institutions (LMIs) in the context of recent debates in India. It focuses on the internal inconsistency of mainstream economic analyses of LMIs, in particular those based on the new institutional economics (NIE) approach, and what appears to be an emerging policy consensus on LMIs within the World Bank and the International Labour Organization (ILO). The paper draws out the possible ideological parallels in these two developments, despite different intellectual origins and intentions of those engaged in these debates. A corresponding modification in policy debates in India is observed in the shifting perspectives from the Second National Commission on Labour (SNCL) to the National Commission for Enterprises in the Unorganised Sector (NCEUS). The apparent emerging consensus in both the theoretical literature and policy debates reveals the tendency for researchers to focus on labour market outcomes and phenomenal forms of LMIs rather than the structures, processes, agencies and relations that underpin them. While this can be seen as an advancement from the traditional distortionist-institutionalist dichotomy, the tendency of this consensus to explain the persistence of seemingly inefficient institutions within the micro-level choice theoretic framework and its appeal to policy agendas on good governance, social capital, trust and civil society, render it vulnerable to appropriation by the mainstream. The paper argues that the emerging consensus on LMIs is an inadequate framework to inform effective policy propositions, and highlights the scope and opportunity for a political economy alternative.     

National culture, networks and ethnic entrepreneurship: A comparison of the Indian and Chinese immigrants in the US

This paper uses a combination of national cultural frameworks and social capital theory to explain the formation and management of entrepreneurial ventures among immigrant communities. The varying rates of venture formation and performance among different ethnic groups points to the role that the different dimensions of culture play in how immigrants use their social networks to start such firms. We use the specific example of the Indian and Chinese communities in the US to demonstrate this effect and explain how businesses created by members of these communities could have potentially different ways of starting and operating that can be directly traced to the differences in cultural orientation of their owners. What emerges can be summarized as: (a) different immigrant communities have different ways of accumulating and using social capital in starting and managing their ethnic ventures; (b) these dissimilarities manifest themselves in variations in the motives for forming these ventures, human resource practices and termination rates; and (c) that these variations can partly be explained by the differences in their respective national cultures.     

海洋环境监测高频地波雷达的研究现状与发展趋势

高频地波雷达作为一种海洋遥感的重要手段，已有30多年的历史，它可用于海洋表面风、浪、流等状态参数的提取，还可用于目标探测，在专属经济区的监测中，高频地波雷达具有无可比拟的优势。本文介绍了高频地波雷达的发展历史和研究现状及其应用领域，详细叙述了武汉大学研制的高频地波雷达OSMAR2000的体系结构、性能指标和信号处理方法，最后对该研究领域的发展趋势作了简要分析。     

The rise of IT services clusters in India: A case of growth by replication

The Indian IT services sector has grown from small beginnings at the bottom of value creation to a major player in the global information and communications technology (ICT) industry. It commands a 55% share in the global market for IT services. India's IT sector value proposition in terms of low cost with large supply of high quality talent is compelling. As a result, India has become the premier choice not only for outsourcing IT services by the developed-world's multinational corporations (MNCs) but also for locating their own Global In-house Centers (GICs), which simultaneously compete and partner with local firms. This gave rise to six additional clusters beyond the earliest, largest and robust cluster, Bangalore. The paper provides a review of relevant literature; develops a conceptual framework for evaluation of clusters; and presents data and analysis with respect to relative size, growth, specialization, MNC presence and connectivity to local firms through expatriates and returning Indians, ,innovation; and discusses adequacy of ICT infrastructure for future growth. Although there are clear signs that the Indian IT sector has been moving towards a regime of providing high-end value added services, the sector's value proposition – lower cost combined with a large supply of high quality talent – remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple export clusters. Thus the sector's growth appears to be a case of growth by replication rather than innovation. The paper concludes that the Indian IT sector's value proposition in terms of lower cost combined with large supply of high quality talent remains the single most compelling reason for the rise and growth of multiple IT services export clusters. While the old adage, “people follow jobs” still holds for large part of the labor force, there is little doubt that the sprawling IT services clusters in India - with more to come from Tier II and Tier III cities – indicate, in fact, that “jobs follow talent." Both local firms and the MNCs, through their GICs, are pushing the boundaries of location farther and farther to continue to leverage cost advantage and available pools of talent.     

Economic development lessons from and for North American Indian economies*

This paper reviews the literature on economic development as it relates to indigenous people in the United States and Canada, and focuses on how institutions affect economic development of reservation and reserve economies. Evidence shows that strong property rights to reservation and reserve land and natural resources, whether communal or individual, are and always have been important determinants of productivity. Political and legal institutions that are perceived as stable and predictable to tribal members and to non‐Natives also improve economic opportunities for indigenous people living on reservations and reserves. Research reviewed here also shows that culture and acculturation are important in the development process. Although our emphasis is on North America, the findings are applicable to indigenous people in other parts of the world and shed light on growth questions that loom large for developing countries around the world.