Thermodynamics and process analysis for future economic scenarios

Economists are increasingly interested in forecasting future costs and benefits of policies for dealing with materials/energy fluxes, polluting emissions and environmental impacts on various scales, from sectoral to global. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are currently popular because they project demand and industrial structure into the future, along an equilibrium path. But they are applicable only to the extent that structural changes occur in or near equilibrium, independent of radical technological (or social) change. The alternative tool for analyzing economic implications of scenario assumptions is to use Leontief-type Input-Output (I-O) models. I-O models are unable to endogenize structural shifts (changing I-O coefficients). However, this can be a virtue when considering radical rather than incremental shifts. Postulated I-O tables can be used independently to check the internal consistency of scenarios. Or I-O models can be used to generate scenarios by linking them to econometric macro-drivers (which can, in principle, be CGE models). Explicit process analysis can be integrated, in principle, with I-O models. This hybrid scheme provides a natural means of satisfying physical constraints, especially the first and second laws of thermodynamics. This is important, to avoid constructing scenarios based on physically impossible processes. Process analysis is really the only available tool for constructing physically plausible alternative future I-O tables, and generating materials/energy and waste emissions coefficients. Explicit process analysis also helps avoid several problems characteristic of pure CGE or I-O models, viz. (1) aggregation errors (2) inability to handle arbitrary combinations of co-product and co-input relationships and (3) inability to reflect certain non-linearities such as internal feedback loops.     

Environmental Analysis of Packaging for Soft Drinks Using the Life Cycle Assessment Methodology

The knowledge of a product＇s life cycle is the first step on the search of sustainable development. The life cycle assessment （LCA） is an important method because it allows an environment accounting, where the extraction of natural resources and energy of the nature are considered and the ＂returns＂ to the same one and allows in evaluating relative potential the environment impacts generated. The present work had as objective to make an analysis of material and energy flows of the life cycle of three types of packaging for soft drinks： glass bottles of 390 mL, aluminum cans of 350 mL, and bottles of PET of 2,000 mL. The study considered processes since the extraction of raw materials for production of the packaging until the stages of recycling, after the consumption of the soft drink. For the research, an inventory analysis followed the LCA methodology. The main critical points of generation of negative environmental impact during the life cycle of each packaging had been the identified and quantified data in this study. The consumption of natural resources like water and other raw materials and energy, the generation of atmospheric emissions, solid wastes and wastewaters had been the analyzed categories. The results showed that, in accordance with the scenes and defined variables, the most important conclusion was that the bottle of glass presented a less favorable scene to the environment in comparison with other packaging.     

Using life cycle approaches to enhance the value of corporate environmental disclosures

As the focus of environmental policy and management shifts from cleaner production at the process level towards greener products as a whole, stakeholders ask for transparency throughout the entire value chain. This article assesses the comprehensiveness and the value of currently reported quantitative environmental disclosures of 97 listed companies from the automotive, banking, pharmaceutical and electronic hardware sectors. Findings indicate that quantitative environmental disclosures have many limitations, including incompleteness and inconsistency regarding corporate activities and sites, and limited internal data coherence. For many sectors, corporate disclosures only cover a very small share of the total environmental burden of products. A stepwise procedure is proposed to verify and improve the quality and completeness of reporting using life cycle approaches. We present simple data quality tests, and we introduce the concept of the environmental influence matrix, which provides a solid basis for the identification and prioritization of key performance indicators and areas of action. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Here come the men in black Technology and anxiety in the postmodern age

This review of the film Men in Black argues that what used to be alarming in the science fiction genre has now become its main source of humour. As a reactionary response to the dystopic X-Files, MiB is an elaborate parody which seeks to recuperate ideological ground lost by the X-Files' examination of gender and technology in contemporary culture. Anxiety about the roles of technology, gender and the state are replaced by humour about the notion of anxiety itself. Anxious we may be at the close of the millenium, but MiB tells us to just laugh it all away.     

Using the budget constraint to monetarise impact assessment results

Recent developments in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) provide a basis for reducing the uncertainty in monetarisation of environmental impacts. The LCIA method “Ecoindicator99” provides impact pathways ending in a physical score for each of the three safeguard subjects humans, ecosystems, and resources. We redefine these damage categories so that they can be measured in terms of Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) for impacts on human well-being, Biodiversity Adjusted Hectare Years (BAHYs) for impacts on ecosystems, and monetary units for impacts on resource productivity.The monetary value of a QALY can be derived from the budget constraint, i.e. the fact that the average annual income is the maximum that an average person can pay for an additional life year. Since a QALY by definition is a life-year lived at full well-being, the budget constraint can be determined as the potential annual economic production per capita at full well-being. We determine this to be 74,000 EUR with an uncertainty estimate of 62,000 to 84,000 EUR. This corresponds well to the 74,627 EUR willingness-to-pay estimate of the ExternE project. Differences to other estimates can be explained by inherent biases in the valuation approaches used to derive these estimates.The value of ecosystems can be expressed in monetary terms or in terms of QALYs, as the share of our well-being that we are willing to sacrifice to protect the ecosystems. While this trade-off should preferably be done by choice modelling, only one such study was found at the level of abstraction that allows us to relate BAHYs to QALYs or monetary units. Stressing the necessity for such studies, we resort to suggest a temporary proxy value of 1400 EUR/BAHY (or 52 BAHY/QALY), with an uncertainty range of 350 to 3500 EUR/BAHY.The practical consequences of the above-described monetarisation values has been investigated by combining them with the midpoint impact categories of two recent LCIA methods, thus providing a new LCIA method with the option of expressing results in both midpoints and an optional choice between QALY and monetary units as endpoint. From our application of the new method to different case studies, it is noteworthy that resource impacts obtain less emphasis than in previous LCIA methods, while impacts on ecosystems obtain more importance. This shows the significance of being able to express impacts on resources and ecosystems in the same units as impacts on human well-being.     

碳排放限额约束下的供应链优化模型研究

文中从供应链整体设计框架出发,针对碳排放限额约束建立了以经济和环境为多目标的数学模型,对供应链网络进行了优化并用一个算例验证了模型。该供应链网络优化模型有一定的创新性,能够给企业带来管理启示与参考价值。     

The meeting place: Qualitative aspects of product environmental assessment

Quantitative methods for evaluating the environmental impact of products are receiving considerable attention. Software is being developed to enable analysis of many aspects of a product's life cycle—from materials' extraction, through manufacture, to use and disposal. Less attention is being paid to the qualitative aspects of products and their significance in addressing environmental concerns. Here, the argument is made for including qualitative evaluations as an important facet of product environment assessment. Such evaluations are essential if significant progress is to be made in alleviating the adverse environmental effects of products. Combined with quantitative analyses, the two approaches become mutually supportive and, ultimately, inseparable.Qualitative environmental assessments can be applied to existing products and at every stage of the design process. Their adoption within the context of professional practice will be fostered by their inclusion, formulation and discussion within design education. This paper describes the basis and nature of these qualitative judgments, and places the qualitative and quantitative in a unified context which points towards more sustainable ways of living. The use of scenarios is discussed as a tool for academic design projects in order to address the complex relationships which might otherwise seem overwhelming to the design student.     

The ABC-LCA method for the integration of activity-based costing and life cycle assessment

This article presents an approach to integrating life cycle assessment (LCA) into an activity-based costing (ABC) model to develop a steering system that takes into account both financial costs and associated environmental impacts. By combining the formalism of LCA and ABC matrix calculations, we show how impact assessment results can be affiliated with costs to jointly and simultaneously compute the costs and environmental impacts of products and activities. The conditions of integration are developed following the four-step structure of LCA. The proposal is applied to a simplified case study of the ‘Classic Pen Company.’ The developed ABC-LCA approach paves the way for further test applications, which are considered useful in the context of environmental indicators for strategic steering, communication with customers and forecasting or simulation.     

基于LCA的薄壁轻钢住宅性能评价研究

薄壁轻钢住宅作为未来最具有发展潜力的建筑,还没有具体的评价方法。生命周期评价方法是目前国内外使用得最多的方法,本文将其应用于薄壁轻钢住宅的性能评价,研究了住宅性能的相关指标及其所占的权重,从而得出相关的结论。