A multivariate distance nonlinear causality test based on partial distance correlation: a machine learning application to energy futures

This paper proposes a multivariate distance nonlinear causality test (MDNC) using the partial distance correlation in a time series framework. Partial distance correlation as an extension of the Brownian distance correlation calculates the distance correlation between random vectors X and Y controlling for a random vector Z. Our test can detect nonlinear lagged relationships between time series, and when integrated with machine learning methods it can improve the forecasting power. We apply our method as a feature selection procedure and combine it with the support vector machine and random forests algorithms to study the forecast of the main energy financial time series (oil, coal, and natural gas futures). It shows substantial improvement in forecasting the fuel energy time series in comparison to the classical Granger causality method in time series.     

Natural resource accounting for Indian states — Illustrating the case of forest resources

Our main objective is to set out and apply a SEEA-based methodology to reflect the true value of forest resources in India's national and state accounts. We establish that a “top-down” approach using available national databases is both feasible and desirable from a policy perspective. In this paper, we address four components of value creation in forests: timber production, carbon storage, fuelwood usage, and the harvesting of non-timber forest products. The results of our analysis suggest that prevailing measures of national income in India underestimate the contribution of forests to income. The income accounts of the Northeastern states in particular are significantly understated by these traditional (GDP/GSDP) measures. We are also able to identify some states which performed poorly in the context of our sustainability framework, reflecting natural capital losses due to degradation and deforestation. Our results highlight the need to integrate natural resource accounting into the national accounting framework in order to generate appropriate signals for sustainable forest management and for the conservation of forest resources which are widely used by the poor in India, as well as being significant stores of national wealth.     

东西部地区之间公益林生态补偿负担与分摊

由于东部和西部地区之间自然和社会经济条件的差别，在公益林生态补偿问题上将会存在严重的地区之间生态建设责任与利益不平衡．因此需要建立地区之间的财政支付方式来平衡这种不公平状况．以利于公益林生态补偿制度的建立和完善。     

Climate adaptation in ‘new world’ cultural landscapes: The case of Bay of Fundy agricultural dykelands (Nova Scotia,Canada)

North America has few cultural agricultural landscapes, and often commensurately poor governance arrangements for managing change in such settings. This research uses the Acadian dykelands of Nova Scotia, Canada, as an opportunity to explore the social and governance limits to coastal climate adaptation in ‘new world’ cultural agricultural landscapes, as well as inform local decision-making. Approximately half of Nova Scotia’s coastal wetlands were converted to dykeland in the 1600s, lowering local resilience to the increased frequency and storm severity anticipated with climate change. Today, dykelands protect a diversity of public and private interests, meanings and values, yet are controlled by the agricultural sector, which can no longer afford to maintain them all to 2050 climate projections. We report here on a representative online Q-methodology survey of 183 adult Nova Scotians in the spring of 2015. Respondents sorted 34 statements along a normal distribution about whether they prefer dykeland maintenance or wetland restoration, and under what governance arrangements. Four factors were derived: the dominant discourse was local, female and strongly pro-dykeland, indicating the likelihood for local resistance to dykeland removal on for cultural, recreational and farming reasons. The second factor was supportive of wetland restoration for reasons of efficiency, not wetland affinity, but characterized by those in positions of management power. The two minority viewpoints were less informed about dykelands, characteristic of outsiders, and concerned more with governance. More education is needed about the challenges facing dykelands, the benefits of coastal wetlands, and the management options, but this research shows proposals to change landscape should emphasize flood mitigation over cost-saving. Cultural values and status quo bias are clearly barriers to adaptation planning, even when discussing the removal of man-made structures. The factors were surprisingly polarized, suggesting the forced-normal distribution affects the space available to convey nuanced perspectives. Large p-set Q-method of this kind is likely most useful for characterizing the emergent discourses demographically, and understanding their prevalence; the same discourses had emerged within a much smaller pilot study.     

亚洲林业产权现状研究与分析

通过对国内外有关亚洲林业产权文献的回顾,对亚洲林业现状、林业产权的基本概念及亚洲林业产权进展情况进行了梳理与评述,在此基础上,从不同产权类型对森林资源的影响、产权的制约因素和产权制度变迁三个方面探讨了亚洲林业产权未来的发展趋势及前景。最后,建议我国今后在实施林权制度改革时应注意:加强授予权利的支持力度;加强林主的能力建设;提供充足的机构支持;分步实施改革。     

Exploring the interdisciplinary potential of the Agenda2030—Interactions between five Danish societal demands for sustainable land use

This article explores the potential of the SDG framework for interdisciplinary research. The aim is to illustrate the process of creating a shared platform of operation by the clarifying the positive and negative interactions between societal demands for land use on a national and local level. The research question is answered by making use of the systemic approach introduced by Niklas Luhmann including his arguments about autopoietic communication systems reproducing themselves. An interdisciplinary research group is firstly applying the SDG framework to the demands for sustainable land use by activating the land consolidation in Denmark. By doing so a ‘national framework’ anchored in the SDG framework is created. Secondly, the national framework is applied to a multifunctional land consolidation project in a Danish case area. The findings from the mapping of interactions between societal demands on a concrete case area revealed that some indicators and societal demands are more prone to conflicts than others but also on the local level there may be variations. Thus, a localised and contextualised SDG framework has shown useful insight for future projects on sustainable land use including land consolidation projects. The paper concludes that the SDG framework may be used for facilitating interdisciplinary research, however there is also a need for guidelines and examples on how to integrate the framework in academia. The paper offers a suggestion for integrating the Agenda2030 and the SDG framework in projects about sustainable land use.     

国有林区改革终极目的不是实行私有化

认为国有林区改革必须对林区的森林经营历史、林区的森林生长自然规律有所了解,以寻求改革的症结所在,并明确改革的目的和目标。对伊春林区改革试点出现的"分林"做法,导致国有林区国有资产的流失提出警示。不认同对国有林区改革的主要方向是"家庭承包"的提法,因为它违反林业经济规律和现代森林经营的基本要求。指出国有林区改革终极目标不是实行私有化。     

河北省林权制度演进的动因分析

河北省林权制度演进的动因主要包括国家意志的改变、农民需求的变化、人口数量的变化、森林资源稀缺程度的变化、要素和产品相对价格的变化等几个主要方面。以制度变迁理论、时间序列分析和供求理论对相应因素进行深入分析,结果显示:诸多动因相互作用推动了河北省林权制度的演进。因而,在制定林权政策时,要综合考虑各方面因素的影响以及相互之间的关系以期达到一个均衡状态。     

集体林区生态公益林产权制度改革研究

依据公共物品理论和产权的公法限制理论对中国集体林区生态公益林产权制度改革的方向和主要内容进行了研究。研究提出,公益林产权制度的改革应遵循"分类改革"的原则,属于纯公共物品的公益林,采取国有化林权模式;属于准公共物品的生态公益林,坚持公益林所有权不变。改革的主要内容有:⑴建立公益林征用与管制制度;⑵优化公益林产权权利,合理落实经营与管护主体;⑶促进公益林产权市场化运作。     

辽宁东部水源涵养林计量指标体系及其效益评估

对辽东山区水源涵养林产生的各种效益进行计量评价研究,制定了水源涵养林计量效益评价指标体系,包括3级结构、16项指标、49项因子;依各功能因子的重要性并经测算,对各项指标赋予权重和排序,森林的蓄水、减少径流、改善水质功能的权重值较高;采用条件价值法,估算辽东山区水源涵养林的各种功能价值,森林的林副产品和木材收益的功能价值较高。辽东山区水源涵养林按整体处在一般经营状态下计算,年均创造功能价值约为30.2亿元。