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1.
Julian A. Parra‐Polania 《The German Economic Review》2019,20(4):e1019-e1027
Forward guidance can be provided as an unconditional promise, i.e. commitment to a specific low policy rate. Alternatively, the promise may include an escape clause, i.e. a condition defining the state of the economy under which the central bank would not keep such a low rate and, instead, it would revert to setting policy under discretion. The escape clause can be expressed as a threshold in terms of a specific variable. The present paper shows that, when such a threshold is expressed in terms of an endogenous variable (e.g. output, inflation), there are cases where it becomes impossible for the central bank to act in a way that is consistent with its promise. Consistency imposes limits on the policy rate that can be set since reverting immediately to the optimal discretionary rate can be incompatible with exceeding the threshold. 相似文献
2.
The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries. 相似文献
3.
本文通过农民收入变量、农民受教育程度、农村人均固定资产投资额、政府用于农村人均文教娱乐用品及服务支出和政府用于农村财政支出等政策变量与东部地区农业结构变动的相关性分析,再根据未来若干年我国及东部地区农业政策变化趋势,从而预测未来我国东部地区农业结构的变化趋势。 相似文献
4.
产业升级、贸易政策与经济转型 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
产业升级是经济转型的内驱动力,贸易政策对于产业升级具有制约作用,是经济转型的外驱力量。政府通过设计合理的激励机制,将两种力量聚合,积极推动经济转型,从而缩短经济转型的时间进程。 相似文献
5.
我国公共服务民营化目前还处在起步和探索阶段,推进其健康发展就要制定明确的目标、原则与相应的政策支持来进行战略布局,使公共服务民营化在政府规制的模式下,以准市场制度环境蓬勃发展,使公共服务民营化的推进具有制度安排的路径。 相似文献
6.
本文基于技术经济学项目评价指标的广泛适用性,对个人所得税扣除政策的成本与收益进行了评价与测度.这种探索有助于深化个人所得税制的研究. 相似文献
7.
The economic impact of adopting herd health programs for mastitis and reproduction by small-scale dairy producers of Central Thailand was assessed using a policy analysis matrix (PAM). Following a reduction in the incidence of bovine disease on adopter farms, an increase in private net profits is observed. More importantly the social costs of supporting dairy farmers is reduced; the PAM effective protection coefficient was reduced by 35% for mastitis program adopters and by 44% for reproductive program adopters, indicating improved social efficiency of dairy policy. Other indicators of efficiency and policy implications are discussed. 相似文献
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9.
Industrial policy in any economy has a number of varying and occasionally conflicting objectives, but the overarching intention of the various grants, subsidies and support schemes, arguably, must be to improve the economic performance of the plants they assist directly. However, in the absence of counterfactual evidence, whether or not assistance does improve performance is hard to establish. In this paper, we consider the impact of two UK government industrial support schemes (Regional Selective Assistance and the Small Firm Merit Awards for Research and Technology) on UK manufacturing plant level total factor productivity in an attempt to answer the question, ‘did assistance make a difference?’ 相似文献
10.
伴随着我国经济体制改革向纵深发展,国有企业负债比率过高的问题更加突出显示出来。为了解决这个问题,我国实施了“债转股”政策。本文讨论四个命题:(1)国有企业是负债比率过高还是收益率过低;(2)“债转股”政策究竟是使国有企业“财务解困”还是“体制解困”;(3)“债转股”政策究竟是转移金融风险还是化解金融风险;(4)资产管理公司为国有企业和国有商业银行解困,将来谁为资产管理公司解困。本文认为“债转股”政策设计存在功能缺陷与制度依赖。国有企业“债转股”政策的成功依赖于国有企业(商业银行)现代企业制度的建立与完善。 相似文献