Small seeds for grand challenges—Exploring disregarded seeds of change in a foresight process for RTI policy

The recent turn in research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy towards challenge-led strategies is posing new demands to Foresight methodology. RTI Foresight practitioners need to complement their well developed set of technology oriented methods with equally sophisticated approaches tackling societal aspects of innovation. In this paper we aim to make a contribution to this requirement. Building on user innovation theory we argue that demand oriented RTI Foresight needs to systematically integrate voices and hypotheses from the fringes of the innovation system. In order to develop a sound approach for this we set out from well established Foresight theory on “weak signals” and “cognitive biases”. Adopting a constructivist stance towards such signals leads us to the need to set up a socially robust, diverse discourse on “seeds of change hypotheses”. We then outline a practical implementation of such a discourse in the context of the recent Foresight process of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) in Germany. We describe and discuss the experience of this Foresight process and suggest avenues for further development of the approach.     

我国水产种苗发展存在的问题与对策

改革开放以来，我国水产种苗行业虽然取得了很大进展，但与实际需要还很不适应。今后应加大投入，努力完善水产种苗生产体系、管理和质量监督体系、科研体系，促进我国水产种苗稳定、快速和健康发展     

西双版纳热带能源植物资源的研究

能源植物是关系国家能源安全,应对目前和今后可能出现的能源危机的重要战略资源;西双版纳热带能源植物估计总数在1000种以上;通过对158种含油量≥30%的能源植物进行分析,得出该地区具有能源植物种类繁多,资源丰富,热带区系特征明显,古老成分和特有种多等特点;一些能源植物如小桐子、油棕等,兼具速生丰产、含油量高、燃烧性能好等优点并极具开发潜力;这些植物主要以种子油为能源利用部位,发展能源植物可以同时获得木材、香料、水果、药材、橡胶等多种资源;必须指出,能源植物的保护问题不容忽视,部分能源植物同时也是稀有濒危物种,有许多能源植物生产顽拗性种子。     

On the Adoption of Genetically Modified Seeds in Developing Countries and the Optimal Types of Government Intervention

Given the proprietary nature of most genetically modified (GM) seed technologies, the question arises as to how farmers in developing countries can gain proper access. Based on empirical observations, a theoretical model is developed, focusing on farmers' adoption decisions in response to pricing strategies of a foreign monopolist and a domestic supplier of conventional seeds. Government interventions, such as seed subsidies, encouragement of R&D, and intellectual property rights (IPR) enforcement, and their effects on GM coverage and national welfare are analyzed. The possibility of the government obtaining a license to distribute GM seeds domestically through a transfer to the monopolist is also considered.