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1.
本文从数理统计入手,给出了玻壳生产中更换产品前后合格率的关系公式,并和实际统计值进行了比较,有较好的符合,为科学量化分析提供了工具。并据此分析,不同尺寸的玻壳产品,当池炉系统的质量水平下降时,它们的合格率的差别也在扩大,并量可能会使得原先利润相对高的产品变得利润相对低。通过合理地计划产品品种的生产,可以获得更多的利润,降低单位成本。同时也阐明原有的新产品质量目标设定方法的不合理性,给出了质量目标设定的科学依据。 相似文献
2.
We develop a fine representation of the term structure of interest rates in Indonesia and create a link between the yield curve and macroeconomic fundamentals. We construct a state-space representation of the yield curve as a function of three time-varying parameters: level, slope, and curvature factors. The model is then expanded to include three macroeconomic variables: real activity, inflation, and interest rates. We find that the dynamic latent factor model provides a very good fit to characterise the Indonesian yield curve in terms of the statistical properties for each maturity, and in terms of the properties of three latent yield-curve factors. With regards to the relationship to the macroeconomy, we find that there is a large amount of idiosyncratic variation in the yield curve movements. Therefore, macroeconomic variables can only explain small dynamics in the yield curve. 相似文献
3.
The term structure of real yields and expected inflation are two unobserved components of the nominal yield curve. The primary objectives of this study are to decompose nominal yields into their expected real yield and inflation components and to examine their behaviour using state-space and regime-switching frameworks. The dynamic yield-curve models capture three well-known latent factors – level, slope, and curvature – that accurately aggregate the information for the nominal yields and the expected real and inflation components for all maturities. The nominal yield curve is found to increase slightly with a slope of about 120 basis points, while the real yield curve slopes upward by about 20 basis points, and the expected inflation curve is virtually flat at slightly above 2 per cent. The regime-switching estimations reveal that the nominal yield, real yield and expected inflation curves have shifted down significantly since 1999. 相似文献
4.
《Food Policy》2016
Nepal’s population continues to grow, but the agricultural sector’s performance remains almost stagnant. This has led to a decline in the per capita availability of food. Increasing agricultural productivity is the key to agricultural growth, and one strategy for increasing agricultural productivity is to use improved seeds. This study investigates the impact of contract farming (CF) in high yielding varieties (HYV) of paddy seed production on costs, yield, and profits of smallholder farms in Nepal. Using farm-level data and a non-parametric propensity score matching estimator, the study finds a significant positive impact of contract HYV seed farming on revenues, profits, and yield, and a significant negative impact on total costs of production. Additionally, very small farms (⩽0.43 ha) with CF in HYV paddy seeds tend to gain the most when it comes to yield per hectare. Our estimates reveal that the average smallholder household in Nepal engaged in CF with input conditions receives higher profits. However, farmers engaged in CF with output conditions tend to have higher yields but smaller profits. Finally, farmers engaged in CF in HYV paddy seeds with both input and output conditions have the highest yield gains and significantly higher profits. 相似文献
5.
This study investigates how unexpected announcements in Brazilian and U.S. macroeconomic indicators affect the term structure of nominal interest rates, as well as implicit inflation expectations and real interest rates. Using daily data from March 2005 to December 2012, we employ an extended Vector Error Correction Model to take into account nonstationarity and the long-term equilibrium among different maturities of those curves. We found empirical evidence that macroeconomic surprises, domestic (Brazilian) and external (U.S. American), which lead the market to believe that there might be a higher risk of inflation or an overheated economy, raise nominal interest rates, implicit expected inflation and real interest rates. Surprisingly, in relation to the efficient-market hypothesis, we found that some macroeconomic surprises have a lagged effect on the yield curves. We also tested the impact of the global financial crisis of 2007–09 and found that the crisis affected significantly the direction and magnitude of the responses to macroeconomic news. 相似文献
6.
This paper provides clear-cut evidence that the slope and curvature factors of the term structure of interest rates (yield curve) contain more information about future changes in economic activity than the term spread itself, often used in the literature as a predictive regressor of economic activity. These two factors reflect different information about future economic activity, which is smoothed out by the term spread. The paper shows that the slope factor has predictive power on future economic activity over longer horizons ahead, and thus may be interpreted as reflecting future business cycle conditions. On the other hand, the curvature factor, which enters the term spread with opposite sign than the slope factor, has predictive power on shorter movements of future economic activity which may be associated with changes in the current stance of monetary policy. These results hold for a number of world developed economies. 相似文献
7.
Elyas Elyasiani Iftekhar Hasan Elena Kalotychou Panos K. Pouliasis Sotiris K. Staikouras 《金融市场、机构和票据》2020,29(2):43-64
Using an extensive global sample, this paper investigates the impact of the term structure of interest rates on bank equity returns. Decomposing the yield curve to its three constituents (level, slope and curvature), the paper evaluates the time‐varying sensitivity of the bank's equity returns to these constituents by using a diagonal dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH framework. Evidence reveals that the empirical proxies for the three factors explain the variations in equity returns above and beyond the market‐wide effect. More specifically, shocks to the long‐term (level) and short‐term (slope) factors have a statistically significant impact on equity returns, while those on the medium‐term (curvature) factor are less clear‐cut. Bank size plays an important role in the sense that exposures are higher for SIFIs and large banks compared to medium and small banks. Moreover, banks exhibit greater sensitivities to all risk factors during the crisis and post‐crisis periods compared to the pre‐crisis period; though these sensitivities do not differ for market‐oriented and bank‐oriented financial systems. 相似文献
8.
This study investigates supply-side investments in the tourism sector, analysing the return and risk relationship of investments in tourism across several countries. The performance of tourism sector companies listed on the stock exchange, for the top one dozen countries according to the World Economic Forum (WEF) tourism rankings, is investigated by region, across these countries and within each country by comparison to other sectors. Several metrics are used to compare the risk-adjusted returns, over a 15-year period ending March 2007 and sub-periods to check the persistence of performance over time. The results present a strikingly different ranking than those of the WEF. The implications for the flow of investment funds are of importance in a global capital market. Money will flow to those investments with the highest expected returns for a given risk level and this has consequential impacts for economic growth and employment in the tourism sector. 相似文献
9.
10.
In this paper we examine the importance of systematic equity market factors in explaining the cross-sectional variation in yield spreads on corporate debt. Based on a sample of 1771 corporate bonds over the period from January 1985 to March 1998, we find that once the default-related variables are controlled for, bond betas or sensitivities to aggregate equity market risks have very limited explanatory power. This is in contrast to [Elton, E.J., Gruber, M.J., 2001. Explaining the rate spread on corporate bonds. Journal of Finance 56, 247–277] who find that market factors tied to expected returns are predominantly important, but who do not control for these variables (i.e. the relevant variables from structural models), possibly biasing their estimates. On the other hand, our finding that the systematic factors exhibit some limited explanatory power suggests that the standard contingent claims approach may not fully apply. This finding is consistent with previous research that bond betas are not completely irrelevant once market frictions are introduced. Overall, the evidence provides empirical support for the proposition that structural models capture important elements of corporate bond yield spread determination and equity market systematic factors are by no means predominant. 相似文献