Economy-wide implications of biofuel production in Zambia

ABSTRACT

Potential biofuel demand in South Africa is estimated to increase to 1550 million litres by 2025 due to mandatory blending rates. Land and water constraints, however, limit the ability for domestic production. Zambia, due to its abundance in land, suitable climate, supportive set of bioenergy incentives and close geographical location to South Africa, has the potential to meet this increase in demand. Using a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the macro- and socio-economic impacts of bioethanol production in Zambia from three potential crops: sugarcane, cassava and sweet sorghum. The results show that the development of a single product bioethanol industry has the potential to increase economic growth without negatively affecting overall food security. Further expansion of the industry to multiple products results in larger gains to growth and welfare.     

Faidherbia albida on the Tonga Plateau of southern Zambia: an agroecological analysis

Faidherbia albida is a tree species indigenous to semi-arid regions of Africa that reportedly substantially increases maize (Zea mays) yields in its immediate vicinity. In southern Zambia, F. albida is widely used in indigenous maize farming systems and this has apparently increased over the past two decades. Using a combination of interviews, group meetings, and observations, this study sought to understand why this species seems to have recently been embraced, while other technological innovations apparently have not. We observed a bimodal age distribution of the trees in agricultural fields and posit that the missing cohorts were removed as weeds as a result of evolving notions of what constituted modern farming practices in the emerging maize economy. With subsequent research and social promotion of the beneficial effects of F. albida, farmers now allow the trees to grow in their fields. A holonic analysis points to the important relationship of F. albida to contexts that shaped past and current uses of the tree by farmers on the Tonga Plateau: information, maize, cattle, land tenure, and government policy. Advice promulgated by social promotion activities took root in farmer knowledge contexts because of positive regard for F. albida and timeless injunctions against cutting mature specimens. Furthermore, cultivation of the tree was highly compatible with other important contexts in which farmers operate. However, our research also revealed the potential for adoption of the tree to create new tensions arising from the strong gendering of work and crops in the region.     

Liberation wars and tourism development in Africa : The case of Zambia

Development of Africa's immense tourism potential is severely limited for reasons including lack of capital, distance from the large North American and European markets, the cost of travel to Africa, and Africa's poor image abroad. A key factor contributing to this image problem is political instability. Since World War II, almost all African countries have achieved independence. In several countries, this decolonization process has taken the form of long and often bloody liberation wars. This paper examines the impact of Zimbabwe's protracted liberation war on tourism development in Zambia and suggests that a detailed examination of major internal and external political events associated with the decolonization process in Zimbabwe could provide important perspectives on the obstacles to tourism development in other African countries.     

Smallholder Demand for Maize Hybrids in Zambia: How Far do Seed Subsidies Reach?

We add to an emerging body of literature on input subsidies in Africa south of the Sahara. Our analysis focuses on demand for seed, characterising smallholders with a high predicted demand for hybrid seed who were not reached by the subsidy programme. We use cross‐sectional data from the 2010 agricultural season and an instrumented control function approach to test the hypothesis that the subsidy on hybrid maize seed in Zambia is selectively biased. Consistent with other literature, we find that the subsidy is a recursive determinant of seed demand, but in 2010, its recipients had more land, more assets, and lower poverty rates. Findings illustrate the social costs of the programme as currently designed and highlight the need to build alternative supply channels if poorer maize growers are to grow hybrid seed.     

Knowing is half the battle: Seasonal forecasts,adaptive cropping systems,and the mediating role of private markets in Zambia

This paper examines how smallholders living in regions where a drought is forecasted adapt their farm practices in response to receiving seasonal forecast information. The article draws on a unique longitudinal dataset in Zambia, which collected information from farm households before and after a significant drought caused by the 2015/2016 El-Niño Southern Oscillation. It finds that farmers residing in areas forecasted to be drought-affected and receiving seasonal forecast information are significantly more likely to integrate drought tolerant crops into their cropping systems compared to similar households not receiving this information. Moreover, the probability that a farmer implements these adaptive farm management strategies in response to seasonal forecast information is found to increase substantially as the number of private grain buyers in the farmers’ village increases. This suggests that climate change adaptation and resilience strategies that integrate the generation and dissemination of weather information with agricultural market development can achieve greater impact on farmers’ adaptive responses than approaches that treat these activities in isolation.     

Structural transformation or elite land capture? The growth of “emergent” farmers in Zambia

Over the last decade, Zambia has witnessed a rapid increase in the number of medium-scale “emergent farms” cultivating 5–20 ha of land. This study analyzes the factors underpinning this growth. We find that the growth of emergent farmers in Zambia is primarily attributable to land acquisition by salaried urbanites and by relatively privileged rural individuals. We found little evidence to support the hypothesis that the rise of emergent farmers primarily represents a process of successful accumulation by farmers who began farming with less than 5 ha of land, a situation faced by more than 95% of farming households. We argue that these outcomes are the result of Zambia’s land administration and agricultural spending policies. Rising concentration of landholdings in Zambia raises serious questions about the potential of current agricultural growth to act as a vehicle for broad based economic growth and poverty reduction.     

Is corruption a greater burden for registered MSEs? Evidence from Zambia

If corrupt bureaucrats target registered firms, then corruption may discourage registration. Using data from a survey of 4,801 micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Zambia, this paper looks at whether corruption is a more or less serious problem for registered MSEs. Consistent with earlier studies, the results suggest registered MSEs are more concerned about corruption than unregistered firms are. The paper also proposes two reasons why corruption might affect registered MSEs differently than it affects unregistered firms. We first suggest that registered firms might meet with government officials more often than unregistered firms, giving corrupt officials more opportunities to demand bribes from them, but we also suggest that registered firms might be less vulnerable when officials demand bribes because they are more able to complain about bribe demands. This could offset registered firms' disadvantage because of more frequent meetings. The evidence supports the first, but not the second, hypothesis. Registered firms were more likely to meet with government officials but were not consistently less likely to pay bribes when they did meet with them.