Does online observational learning matter? Empirical evidence from panel data

The information presented on a product sales page plays an important role in consumers' purchase decisions. This study examines the persuasive effect, whether a customer's choice is heavily driven by information inferred from others' behavior, and how these impacts are moderated by market age and product type. Results show that online customer choice was significantly affected by historical cumulative sales and times saved. Positive cumulative sales and shop service quality have a significant positive impact on product sales. The times saved have no direct impact on product sales. For different types of products, the times saved of experiential products has a significant impact on product sales, while the shop service quality information of search products has a greater impact on product sales. The influence of online observation learning on product sales will be significantly moderated by a combination of product type and market age. These findings not only offer important theoretical contributions to e-commerce research but also provide practical implications for online sellers and managers of social commerce platforms.     

P2P网络借贷平台倒闭原因的实证分析

自2013年以来,P2P网络借贷平台倒闭趋势持续蔓延。本文基于中国111个问题P2P网络借贷平台数据,探讨这些平台的地域分布、注册资本和生存时间等方面的特征,并对P2P网络借贷平台出现问题的原因进行了实证分析,研究发现：平台经营经验、地区行业竞争程度对问题平台生存时间有显著正向影响,而平台注册资本对问题平台生存时间无显著影响。     

A dimension-invariant cascade model for VIX futures

We propose a new stochastic volatility model by allowing for a cascading structure of volatility components. The model, under a minor assumption, allows us to add as many components as desired with no additional parameters, effectively defeating the curse of dimensionality often encountered in traditional models. We derive a semi-closed-form solution to the VIX futures price, and find that our six-factor model with only six parameters can closely fit spot VIX and VIX futures prices from 2004 to 2015 and produce out-of-sample pricing errors of magnitudes similar to those of in-sample errors.     

Probabilistic forecasting of heterogeneous consumer transaction–sales time series

We present new Bayesian methodology for consumer sales forecasting. Focusing on the multi-step-ahead forecasting of daily sales of many supermarket items, we adapt dynamic count mixture models for forecasting individual customer transactions, and introduce novel dynamic binary cascade models for predicting counts of items per transaction. These transaction–sales models can incorporate time-varying trends, seasonality, price, promotion, random effects and other outlet-specific predictors for individual items. Sequential Bayesian analysis involves fast, parallel filtering on sets of decoupled items, and is adaptable across items that may exhibit widely-varying characteristics. A multi-scale approach enables information to be shared across items with related patterns over time in order to improve prediction, while maintaining the scalability to many items. A motivating case study in many-item, multi-period, multi-step-ahead supermarket sales forecasting provides examples that demonstrate an improved forecast accuracy on multiple metrics, and illustrates the benefits of full probabilistic models for forecast accuracy evaluation and comparison.     

小型梯级水电站群优化调度损益计算及利益分配研究

在剖析利益分配机理的基础上,以龙岩区域小型水电站群历史数据为依据,基于粒子群算法构建水电站群利益损益计算模型和利益分配模型并进行分配系数计算。计算结果表明,该分配机制能激励各水电站积极参与联合调度,使水资源得到合理利用。     

家电制造商的废旧家电回收处理模式决策研究

在分析废旧家电回收处理模式的基础上,考虑废旧家电的梯级利用,并假设家电产品需求函数为非线性情况下,建立不同回收模式的成本收益分析模型,计算制造商的最优收益,并进行回收模式决策。     

金安桥水电站计算机监控系统结构及特点

随着国家节能减排战略的全面实施,水电站在电力系统中承担的责任越来越大,装机规模也越来越大。文章从现场工程实施的角度,阐述了作为金沙江中游特大型梯级水电站之一的金安桥水电站计算机监控系统的结构及特点,并分析了该监控系统设计开发的背景、原则及优势。     

甲、丙类级联调谐放大器的系统设计与仿真分析

目前,甲、丙类调谐放大器的理论研究较为离散,缺少多级级联 系统设计的理论分析与测试方法。根据设计案例指标需求,结合理论分析,采用Multisim进 行仿真与测试,对级联系统设计中元件参数测量、电路参数计算、系统稳定性调整、工作状 态调整、效率计算、阻抗匹配等关键问题进行了详细解析。仿真实验表明设计符合指标要求 ,可作为甲、丙类多级级联调谐放大器系统设计的参考。     

Monopoly pricing in the binary herding model

How should a monopolist price when selling to buyers who learn from each other’s decisions? Focusing on the case in which the common value of the good is binary and each buyer receives a binary private signal about that value, we completely answer this question for all values of the production cost, the precision of the buyers’ signals, and the seller’s discount factor. Unexpectedly, we find that there is a region of parameters for which learning stops at intermediate and at extreme beliefs, but not at beliefs that lie between those intermediate and extreme beliefs.     

Boundaries of the centrality effect during product choice

Horizontal centrality bias has been found to influence what products consumers pay attention to and what products they choose to purchase. Such bias offers substantial competitive advantage to brands that know about it and display their products so as to capitalize on it. Atalay et al. (2012) identified the key components of this horizontal centrality effect: initial fixation bias, gaze cascade bias, and subsequent choice bias. In this paper, we re-examine their study under two new conditions: time pressure and a more ambiguous choice action. We find that although the horizontal centrality effect persists, it is modified in the extended time condition. The central gaze cascade component does not arise in the data when the choice moment is ambiguous, however, choice bias persists under all conditions.