Pre-Harvest Price Expectations for Corn: The Information Content of USDA Reports and New Crop Futures

This article examines the puzzle of why futures prices continue to react to USDA crop reports despite the fact that reports appear to be no longer "newsworthy," that is, provide no better production estimates than private forecasts. The information value of reports is measured in terms of their influence on rational agents' harvest-time corn price expectations, which are uncovered using a Hamilton-type modeling approach. Results show that reports are still "newsworthy," as they would contribute to agents' price expectations if released a day early. Thus futures price reactions, which closely reflect price expectations, are rational and consistent with efficient markets hypothesis.     

Modeling Conditional Yield Densities

Given the increasing interest in agricultural risk, many have sought improved methods to characterize conditional crop-yield densities. While most have postulated the Beta as a flexible alternative to the Normal, others have chosen nonparametric methods. Unfortunately, yield data tends not to be sufficiently abundant to invalidate many reasonable parametric models. This is problematic because conclusions from economic analyses, which require estimated conditional yield densities, tend not to be invariant to the modeling assumption. We propose a semiparametric estimator that, because of its theoretical properties and our simulation results, enables one to empirically proceed with a higher degree of confidence.     

Estimating the Impact of Transgenic Bt Cotton on West and Central Africa: A General Equilibrium Approach

West and Central Africa (WCA)’s cotton sector is experiencing rising production costs and lower yields, reversing decades of growth. Declining input use, soil fertility and inefficient chemical pest controls are contributing factors. We evaluate the potential impact of Bt cotton on WCA using a multiregion general equilibrium model and multicountry estimates of Bt-induced productivity. We find that Bt cotton raises growers’ returns, land value and welfare. Released labor from cotton is shifted to food crops hence reducing labor shortage constraints. Overall, results indicate that potential gross benefits from Bt cotton are substantial for WCA cotton sector, and that the economic costs of nonadoption are equally significant.     

光学遥感观测技术在IDI保险行业的应用

IDI保险是工程质量类保险的一种,在国内主要应用于住宅项目。IDI保险需要在工程建设的全过程中进行质量管控和风险评估。常规水准检测、GPS等技术难以满足IDI保险对风险建筑进行大范围、快速、长期监测的需要。光学遥感观测技术是一种可以实现大面积地物监测的遥感观测技术,该技术可以为IDI保险的监测工作提供数据信息支持。论文整理了近几年关于光学遥感观测技术应用于建筑高度监测的文献,对分类法、边缘检测法、阈值法进行介绍和总结,说明光学遥感观测技术在IDI保险行业中有较高的应用价值和广阔的应用前景。     

渐开线圆柱齿轮的形位误差探讨

从误差角度分析，综述ＧＢ１００９５－８８《渐开线圆柱齿轮精度》误差的表达方法。     

集装箱船初稳性高度优化模型的建立

为解决目前集装箱配积载中尚需结合人工经验来进行箱位选配的问题,通过研究集装箱船配积载前重心距基线高,运用集装箱船初稳性高度计算原理,结合集装箱船的结构特点,建立集装箱船初稳性高度优化模型。运用交互式的线性和通用优化求解器编写程序,其研究成果将为实现集装箱船自动化配积载目标提供理论基础。     

Input use under cost-of-production crop insurance: Theory and evidence

There have been a number of previous studies that examined the effects of yield- or revenue-based crop insurance products on input use of farmers. However, no study has specifically investigated the input use impacts of a cost-of-production (COP) crop insurance policy, even though this type of crop insurance is the predominant one used in several other countries outside of the United States (such as the Philippines and China). This article aims to theoretically and empirically examine the effect of a COP crop insurance product on farmers’ chemical input use. Our theoretical model suggests that the effect of COP insurance on input use can either be positive or negative, with the resulting impact depending on the strengths of (a) the traditional moral hazard effect of insurance (i.e., an input use decreasing effect); versus (b) the marginal incentives to apply more inputs due to input levels being the main determinant for expected indemnity amounts in this type of insurance (i.e., an input use increasing effect). A survey data set from corn farmers in the Philippines is then used to empirically illustrate how a particular COP insurance product influences input use in a real-life context. In this case, we find that COP insurance increases the use of chemical inputs (e.g., fertilizers and total chemical expenditure), implying that the positive marginal incentive to apply more inputs dominates the negative moral hazard effect.     

Socioeconomic Determinants of Child Health: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This paper characterizes the socioeconomic determinants of child health using height‐for‐age z‐score (HAZ), a long‐run measure of chronic nutritional deficiency. We construct a panel data that follows children between ages 3 and 59 months in 1993 through the 1997 and 2000 waves of the Indonesian Family Life Survey. We use this data to identify the various child‐level, household‐level and community‐level factors that affect children's health. Our findings indicate that household income has a large and statistically significant role in explaining improvements in HAZ. We also find a strong positive association between parental height and HAZ. At the community level, we find that provision of electricity and the availability of paved roads are positively associated with improvements in HAZ. Finally, in comparison to community‐level factors, household‐level characteristics play a large role in explaining the variation in HAZ. These findings suggest that policies that address the demand‐side constraints have greater potential to improve children's health outcomes in the future.     

面压试验在全金属气缸垫泄漏故障解决中的应用

文章简述了全金属气缸垫面压分布原理和面压试验的操作流程,利用气缸垫泄漏故障分析导致气缸垫泄漏的潜在原因并按照拆机顺序逐一排查,针对背离项提出改进措施,经过试验验证了解决措施的有效性。在解决问题的过程中,面压试验的应用起到了关键作用,这对面压试验在解决发动机气缸垫泄漏故障中的应用具有很好的指导意义。