Revising price history: consumer price index for Norway 1492–2018

ABSTRACT

The paper presents a new combined annual cost of living and consumer price index for Norway covering 1492–2018, indicating that Norwegian price history has to be revised. The new historical price index is constructed on a significantly richer data material, which also makes it cover a longer period of price history than the existing one. This is made possible by the compilation of quantitative data from numerous sources, mostly originating from the eighteenth, nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, with grain prices stretching back to 1492. The new combined cost of living and consumer price index is constructed by a Laspeyres approach with shifting baskets for commodities and expenditure groups.

The index makes it possible to follow annual inflation and deflation in Norway for a period of 526 years. When comparing to existing indices, the new series reveals that revisions are needed in Norwegian price history. These make the historical price development more in line with those of the neighbouring countries and more in line with the pattern of wholesale prices.     

Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

“Sensing” the destination: Development of the destination sensescape index

Despite the increasing academic interest in the sensory dimension of the tourist experience, the quantitative empirical research in the field is limited by a lack of measurement instruments for evaluating the sensory stimuli perceived by tourists during a destination visit. The study addresses this gap by developing a composite index to assess the sensory destination panorama, termed as “destination sensescape”. The construct is conceptualised as a formative multidimensional variable with 5 dimensions (visualscape, smellscape, tastescape, soundscape, and hapticscape). The psychometric validity and reliability of the 17 items integrating the formative index were established by a rigorous multi-step procedure based on three empirical studies. The instrument was tested with data collected from visitors of a Mediterranean urban destination. The operationalisation of the destination sensescape construct not only paves the way for future quantitative sensory studies, but also yields a useful tool for Destination Marketing Organisations (DMOs).     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

基于模糊意见集中排序法的建筑工程资格预审

建筑工程资格预审无论对业主还是对承包商都至关重要，根据建筑工程的特点，在目前普遍采用的资格预审评价方法的基础之上，总结了进行资格预审的评价指标体系，并提出了基于模糊数学意见集中排序法的建筑工程资格预审方法。     

完善欠发达地区在区域不平衡发展中的促动机制

区域不平衡发展是一个普遍的规律,欠发达地区应根据不平衡发展理论,吸取经验教训,建立科学的不平衡发展促动机制。     

基于农业产业化的河南省区域差距研究

文章通过泰尔指数发现从1990年到2005年，河南省区域经济的差距处于一个快速扩大的阶段。通过定量分析发现，河南省区域经济发展水平和发展速度与农业生产具有一定的负相关性，通过定性和定量分析发现，农业产业化对区域差距缩小具有一定的作用，但不起主要作用，一是由于目前河南省农业产业化水平相对还是比较低，农业收入还仅仅停留于农产品的买卖价格，工资性收入所占比重过低，二是农业产业化龙头企业带动能力还是比较弱，带动面小，限制了农区经济的发展水平和速度，最后提出了几点建议。     

关于浙北地区城乡供水一体化问题的研究——以H县为例

对浙北地区县域范围内城乡供水现状进行了分析，指出：要实现自来水供应一体化，面临着行政管理体制和水务运作体制方面的问题，并对解决这两方面的问题提出了对策。     

关于铁路精益生产指标体系及其作用的经济学分析

在铁路精益生产制推行过程中,要特别重视指标体系的构建及其作用的发挥。考核指标体系构建紧密结合铁路运输生产特点和生产流程,以完整运输产品供给为导向,以信息化为基础,以组织模式优化为保障,注重精益生产考核指标体系的激励性。     

建设长春国际陆港区的探讨

在国务院《东北振兴规划》和国家海关总署新的报关模式背景下,文章提出了建设长春国际陆港区的设想,并进行了必要性和可行性的分析。在对长春国际陆港区的概念设计的基础上,提出了建设长春国际陆港区的基本依据,进而提出了以长春铁路货运口岸的改造升级和龙嘉国际机场完善功能为核心,建设长春内陆港,再构筑内陆港特色经济区的设想。最后对建设长春国际陆港区存在的问题进行了思考。