长江中游根治洪灾策略与措施的探讨

长江中游是长江自然—经济—社会复合生态系统的重要组成部分,当前洪涝灾害频繁而严重。按照长江洪水发生的自然规律调整好人与自然的关系,改变长期以来舍南保北、以堵为主、重蓄轻泄的做法,实施疏泄为主的防洪策略,并采取相应的工程和非工程措施(如下荆江裁弯、开辟分流洪道、四口建闸、洞庭湖水系南北分流、疏浚河道、南水北调及平垸行洪等),同时配合进行水源生态工程及江河库湖调蓄工程建设,才能根治长江中游洪涝灾害。     

湖州地区辐射影响因子分析

[目的]为了探究湖州地区太阳辐射情况,利用2009年1月至2017年12月湖州国家基本气象站的辐射观测资料、地面常规观测资料以及大气成分观测资料。[方法]文章分析了湖州地区太阳辐射的变化特征,并检验了太阳辐射与部分气象要素极值的相关性。[结果]太阳辐射日变化基本呈抛物线型。6月因湖州地区进入梅雨季节,阴雨寡照,并不是一年中辐射最大的月份,一年中辐射的最大值出现在7月,之后逐渐下降。按季节统计,夏季辐射最大,春季次之,秋季比冬季略高。除了2015年以外,近几年辐射总量平稳中稍有下降,考虑到可能存在的辐射年际变化,并不能就此认为该地区的辐射处于下降趋势中。辐射强度与总云量、低云量、最小相对湿度为负相关,与日最高温度、日最高地温呈正相关。晴天时,太阳辐射强度与颗粒物浓度PM10、PM2. 5、PM1三者相关性基本一致,均为春、秋和冬季呈负相关,夏季呈正相关,两者的关系应该按季节具体分析。[结论]影响湖州地区辐射的因子有很多,部分气象因子相关性较好,颗粒物浓度不能简单看成全年太阳辐射的影响因子。     

Climate change shocks and socially responsible investments

Climate change's impact on investor behavior is a scantly investigated area in finance. This paper examines the performance of socially responsible exchange trade funds (ETFs) concerning conventional ETFs, in response to climate change events. We proxy climate change signals with a list of natural disaster events that NASA scientists relate to climate change. We contribute to existing literature, by using a very extensive information set of ETF strategies, not influenced by rating agencies' subjective evaluation policies, and covering almost 90% of the universe of worldwide sustainability thematic-oriented ETFs. This sample allows us to identify the socially responsible investment behavior in response to unpredictable climate change shocks. Our identification strategy accounts for endogeneity concerns and relies on two-stage least square (2SLS) approach finding that responsible investors react to climate change events by purchasing socially responsible investments. The relationship between climate change signals and return of investment in themes linked to the development of sustainability is positive. Interestingly enough, the sign of this relationship is different, when we disentangle the empirical results according to the asset type, confirming that investors shift their investments from equity funds to bond funds when market sentiment worsens. Our results indicate that policymakers should increase the support of firms adopting environmentally conscious business practices, while managers should boost a sustainable business strategy.     

村镇建筑防灾减灾的研究

自古以来灾害对村镇建筑造成的人员伤亡和经济损失十分严重,村镇防灾减灾问题需要更多的关注并且亟待解决。本文针对我国农村建筑防灾减灾相对薄弱的情况,分析了村镇建筑防灾减灾的现状及存在问题,结合农村自身的实际情况,综合考虑各致灾因素,提出改善我国村镇建筑防灾减灾能力的对策和建议。     

水库岸坡地质灾害的防治对策研究

在地质灾害防治的研究中,已有研究多从灾害本身的治理上入手,少有从工程管理的层面对灾害防治对策进行研究。本文基于工程管理理论,从防治体系、灾害认识、管理模式、防治方案等四个方面进行研究。在实际的灾害防治工程中,具有很强的实用性和针对性。     

Rare disaster risk and the expected equity risk premium

Consistent with the predictions of rare disaster models, we find that a proxy for the time‐varying probability of rare disasters helps to explain fluctuations in expectations of the equity risk premium. Our proxy for disaster risk is a recently developed measure of global political instability, and the expected market risk premium is from Value Line analysts' expected stock returns. Consistent with long‐run risk models, uncertainty about expected GDP growth and expected consumption growth is also significantly positively related to the expected market risk premium. We obtain similar results when we use the earnings–price ratio and the dividend–price ratio as proxies for the expected market risk premium.     

建立县级公共气象服务体系的实践与思考

介绍了德庆县气象局开展公共气象服务系统试点改革的具体实施情况,分析了试点中遇到的一些问题,探索如何建立以发展现代农业气象服务为主的县级农村公共气象服务体系。     

Raising the bar (6)

Raising the bar (6). Spatial Economic Analysis. This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 12(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper addresses the question of whether ‘jobs follow people’ or ‘people follow jobs’. The second paper develops a new methodology to determine functional regions. The third paper is a major contribution to the growing literature on new modelling approaches and applications of disaster impact models. The fourth paper focuses on the costs and benefits of higher education. The fifth paper develops a two-step procedure to identify endogenously spatial regimes in the first step using geographically weighted regression, and to account for spatial dependence in the second step. Finally, the sixth paper estimates a dynamic spatial panel data model to explain house prices and to show that restricted housing supply in the city of Cambridge, UK, has some undesirable labour market effects.     

我国西部农村防震减灾社会管理内容构建的初步探讨

通过对我国西部农村防震减灾方面的现状、制度建设和社会管理方面存在问题的分析,初步提出了一套适于西部农村防震减灾的社会管理方法和理论体系,初步构建了农村地区防震减灾的社会管理内容。研究成果为《中华人民共和国防震减灾法》的基本法律制度具体化、可操作性提供依据,为建立和完善农村防震减灾相关制度提供依据。