不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定

针对不完备信息系统条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定问题，提出了一种基于改进容差关系粗糙集（ITR-RS）的不完备信息系统辐射源威胁等级判定方法。该方法将粗糙集中的不完备信息系统理论引入辐射源威胁等级判定中，并构建一套完备的决策规则提取模型。此外，利用辨识矩阵实现对属性的约简，在降低系统所需处理数据量的同时，提高了算法的实时性；在容差关系粗糙集的基础上，提出一种改进的容差关系，在属性主、客权重相结合的基础上引入阈值来划分加权阈值容差类，得到更为合理、准确的决策规则。仿真试验及分析表明，与经典RS算法相比，所提算法的威胁等级判定正确率提高了23%，可用于信息系统不完备条件下的辐射源威胁等级判定。     

How credible is the North Korean threat?

We perform event analysis on particular episodes of tension in the Korean peninsula between 2000 and 2008, and investigate the effect of the events on South Korean financial markets (stock markets, bond yield spreads and the exchange rate) given that South Korea would be the first affected by a military aggression from North Korea. Surprisingly, in nearly all cases, these events, which have often been dramatized in the world media, have no significant impact on either of these variables or only a very small one. We also find no significant impact of events on listed firms that would a priori be likely to suffer from increased tension between the two Koreas. Since financial markets often contain better predictions than expert opinions or surveys, these results strongly suggest that the North Korean threat is non‐credible.     

“后危机时代”我国对外工程承包行业的“危”与“机”

美国金融危机对全球经济影响深远,这给国际工程承包市场的尽早复苏蒙上了一层阴影。受其影响,我国对外工程承包行业市场扩张潜力受挫,但我国对外工程承包行业的比较优势尚存,＂核心市场＂依然充满活力,加之国际环境总体缓和,也给我国对外工程承包行业经营全球化提供了契机。不论是政府还是企业,都要利用经济危机后的＂大变动、大调整＂的良好机遇,创造良好的市场环境,加快产业升级,提升我国对外工程承包行业的整体竞争力。     

境内人民币银行卡清算市场的结构政策选择——“封堵”威胁引发的思考

Visa的“封堵”威胁源于两点：一是其境内市场战略遭遇严重挫折,二是中国银联境外受理网络不断扩张侵蚀了其境外清算收益。但本文的分析表明,在境内人民币银行卡清算市场准入终将放开这一假设预期基础上,“封堵”威胁是不可置信的。渐进式的结构重构应是境内人民币银行卡清算市场的结构政策选择。具体来说,短期内应维持中国银联在境内人民币银行卡清算市场的垄断地位,同时强化对中国银联的政府监管,使其基本具备应对国际银行卡组织竞争的能力,为准入的放开创造条件;尽早明确境内人民币银行卡清算市场准入放开的时间,最终放开市场准入,培育有效竞争的市场结构。     

机构投资者能抑制盈余管理吗?--基于退出威胁视角的经验证据

退出威胁是股东参与公司治理的重要方式。本文以2010?2017年A股上市公司为样本,检验机构投资者的退出威胁与企业盈余管理之间的关系。结果显示:机构投资者能够抑制企业的真实盈余管理,而对应计盈余管理的影响并不显著;机构投资者退出威胁能够降低真实和应计盈余管理水平。进一步考虑机构投资者异质性发现,相比敏感型机构投资者,抗压型机构投资者退出威胁更可能降低企业真实盈余管理水平;当管理层的薪酬对股价越敏感时,机构投资者退出威胁的作用越大;机构投资者退出威胁的影响效应在民营企业中更显著。本文的研究结论为认识我国机构投资者,尤其是以QFII和社保基金为代表的抗压型机构投资者在公司治理中的作用提供了新的思路。     

试论城市化发展对水资源的胁迫作用——以河北省为例

水资源是人类社会赖以存在的物质基础,也是经济发展不可缺少的重要资源。随着城市化进程的加快,工业化的飞速发展,一方面,对水资源的需求量越来越大,对水资源的质量要求越来越高;另一方面,由于城市化发展对水资源造成的负面影响使得可用的水资源有减少的趋势。论文以河北省的实际情况出发,研究城市化的迅速发展对水资源的胁迫效应。最后指出,在城市化进程中,必须把生态建设,特别是水生态建设作为“可持续发展”的重点,坚持“人水相亲、自然和谐”的水生态安全理念,以水生态安全与水资源的可持续利用来保障与促进城市乃至整个国家的可持续发展。     

关于综合国力评价克莱因理论模型的缺陷性分析

随着我国经济的迅速发展和国际地位的迅速提高,国际上出现了许多版本的"中国威胁论":中国经济威胁论、中国军事威胁论、中国人口威胁论、中国能源威胁论……等等.在众多版本的"中国威胁论"中,它们的依据之一就是综合国力评价克莱因理论模型.文章从分析克莱因模型的缺陷入手对"中国威胁论"进行反驳,并提出应对"中国威胁论"的几点建议.     

How family influence,socioemotional wealth,and competitive conditions shape new technology adoption

Research summary : In family businesses, investment decisions often involve both socioemotional wealth and economic considerations. Focusing on new technology adoption, we argue that multiple dimensions of socioemotional wealth contribute to complex effects within different types of family firms—depending on the level of family control—as well as in contrast to non‐family firms. Results based on cable TV operators from 1983 to 1987 confirm that family ownership correlates negatively with technology adoption, especially when family owners hold a minority rather than majority position. We also show contingencies based on performance improvements and competitive threats. Our arguments contribute new insights about the tensions between economic and socioemotional factors within minority family ownership that are absent from non‐family firms and more pronounced than in majority family firms. Managerial summary : We find evidence of greater reluctance toward new technology adoption among firms with minority family influence than majority family influence. This suggests that goals related to socioemotional wealth only partly explain the cautious decision‐making observed in family firms, with further caution arising from conflicting priorities between family and non‐family owners. Recent performance improvements help offset the reluctance to adopt new technology, albeit to a lesser degree among firms with minority family ownership. High levels of competitive threats also offset the reduction in new technology adoption, and contrary to expectations, to a greater extent among minority family firms. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Export Motives,Psychological Distance,and the EPRG Framework

The EPRG framework is usually discussed on a conceptual level. Relatively few empirical examinations of the framework have been reported in the literature to date. This paper takes the required first step by placing the framework in a nomological network. This network includes export motives, psychological distance between home and host markets, and transference versus adaptation of international marketing strategies and activities. The findings lend support to the proposed nomological network.     

并购失败：管理者利益保护还是经济安全威胁解除？——凯雷收购徐工案例研究

凯雷集团并购徐工机械是国内第一起由国际私人股权基金获得大型国有企业绝对控股权的案例。文章采用事件研究法,以徐工机械控股的上市公司徐工科技为研究对象,分析了此次并购过程中的五个事件：首次签署并购协议,博客门事件,修订并购协议,二次修订并购协议,协议到期。研究表明上市公司股东在前两个事件中获得了显著的正超常收益,而在后两个事件中的超常收益显著为负,至协议到期并购失败后又获得显著为正的超常收益。从并购过程中的市场反应来看,支持经济安全威胁的证据比支持管理者利益保护的证据更强。