A consumer education programme based on the Transtheoretical Model of Change

MONEY 2000? is a successful consumer education programme that was implemented by Cooperative Extension personnel in over two dozen states of the USA between 1996 and 2002. One of the unique features of this programme is that it was based on the Transtheoretical Model of Change (TTM), a framework that has been widely used to study health‐related behaviour changes such as smoking cessation. This paper first describes how the MONEY 2000? programme was developed around major constructs contained within the TTM. Findings are reported from a survey conducted with participants in the first two states that delivered the programme. The findings suggest that several change processes used by MONEY 2000? participants are associated with specific stages of change. In addition, there may be differences in behavioural changes between participants who increased their savings and those who reduced their debts.     

我国商品流通的变迁与发展趋势

计划体制下形成的是与高度集权的经济体制相适应的分配式商品流通组织体系。转轨时期商品流通呈现“三多一少”的格局，流通的低层次性和非系统化。未来的商品流通呈现出弱化二元经济特征、批发业革新、信息化等趋势。     

A multi-level analysis of sustainable mobility transitions: Niche development in the UK and Sweden

A wide range of intractable problems such as polluting emissions, noise, accidents, resource depletion, and inaccessibility of amenities are associated with the current transport regime. Given the slow movement towards a more sustainable mobility system, more radical, systemic innovation - a ‘transition’ - is required. Broadly speaking, this may be achieved via three routes: technological change, modal shift, and reduced travel demand. Drawing on concepts from the transitions literature (e.g., [Geels, F.W.: Technological Transitions and System Innovations: A Co-evolutionary and Socio-Technical Analysis, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, 2005.]), we conceptualise each of these routes as a bundle of niche activities within an Area of Innovation, deviating to differing degrees from the current mobility ‘regime’. We present empirical evidence and indications of ongoing development of niches in these three areas within the UK and Sweden, and explore processes of co-evolution, divergence and tension within and between niches. Findings indicate recent market penetration of novel transport technologies, more advanced than modal shift or demand management activities; however, different transport technologies are more successful in each country. We also identify examples of a close relationship between development of radical vehicle/fuel technologies and provision of mobility services; and information technology as a driver in all three areas of innovation. We conclude that future innovation in transport depends on diversity, hybridisation, and co-evolution of niches. Finally, policy implications are discussed.     

气候变化对经济金融系统性冲击的物理风险研究

中国作为全球最大的发展中国家,其综合实力伴随着经济、科技的快速发展而不断增强。但我国的极端气候事件趋多趋强,气候风险水平呈上升趋势,影响我国经济社会的发展。金融作为经济运行的核心,在宏观经济中有着举足轻重的作用。为了研究气候变化与经济金融稳定之间的关系,本文对极端气候事件损失体系和区域经济金融稳定性综合体系进行指数合成并构建面板模型探讨气候变化中气温和降水量因素的变动和极端气候事件对区域金融稳定的影响,得出气候变化的物理风险通过极端气候事件对经济发展和金融稳定有负面影响,并根据实证结果提出完善绿色金融市场和优化信息披露制度的政策建议。     

路径依赖对财政政策变迁的规范作用

财政政策作为一种政府主导的制度安排,其变迁的方向不是随机的,而是存在着路径依赖。当财政政策变迁存在着报酬递增和自我强化机制时,路径依赖就会对其产生规范作用。在一定程度上,财政政策的恰当性会进一步加强路径依赖的这种规范性作用。研究路径依赖对财政政策变迁的规范作用,对于推动我国财政政策的良性循环与变迁具有重要意义。     

企业制度变革中的博弈与均衡——一个关于国有企业民营化的实证研究

企业制度运行以利益相关者之间的共有理念为心理依托；这种共有理念体现在人们博弈均衡之中，是人们行为选择的默认前提，其形成和发展具有不以个人意志为转移的客观规律；企业制度变革的任务，是通过企业利益相关者之间的博弈和信任，在适应和调整共有理念的基础上，塑造合理的企业控制权主体。     

Politically connected boards,value or cost: evidence from a natural experiment in China

This study investigates the net effect of a politically connected board for a firm. Using a natural experiment in China – a regulatory change to forbid bureaucrats from sitting on the board of public firms – we address the causality of the net effect of a politically connected board by testing the market reaction of the shares of firm targeted by the regulatory change to the policy announcement. The stocks of firms with politically connected directors who are targeted by the regulatory change show on average a significantly positive abnormal return, which suggests that the agency cost effect of a politically connected director dominates the value effect. The result is robust to various model settings and to a matched sample using the propensity score methodology. Additionally, the announcement effect of the resignation of a politically connected director is significantly positive, and significantly higher than that of a non‐connected director. Overall, our results suggest that the agency cost effect of a politically connected director dominates the value effect.     

元代和买法律制度考论

和买,泛指官府向民间购买物品的行为。其核心便是“和”,即蕴含着自愿交易、买卖的官民双方地位平等、官府购买民间物品应以货币的形式支付对价等含义。为了规范和买行为和保障和买秩序,元继于宋,确立起了一整套包括均平摊派、时估、法定程序、和买钱货两清的支付原则、税课管理制度等在内的和买法律制度体系。然而,和买法律制度在“商品化/赋税化”“和/不和”的博弈中,最终滑向了政府主导、赋税化的境地,而随意的摊派与吏治的败坏在其中起到了催化剂的作用。和买法律制度只能在一定程度上起到减缓其由“和”向“不和”的赋税化性质蜕化的作用。     

Vulnerability to stunting in the West African Sahel

This paper presents a simple simulation framework for understanding and analyzing vulnerability to stunting. We utilize Demographic and Health Surveys merged with satellite data on climatic shocks. Children aged 0–5 years are grouped into three categories: consistently stunted, vulnerable, and non-vulnerable. The first group constitutes those who are stunted and will also be stunted in any hypothetical period. Non-vulnerable are those whose likelihood to be stunted is zero. The vulnerable face a probability between 0 and 1 of being stunted. The probability is calculated as the share of years in which the child would be stunted, given the village level distribution of weather shocks over the period 2000–2013. We provide estimates of vulnerability to stunting in Burkina Faso, Northern Ghana, Mali, Northern Nigeria, and Senegal by aggregating over villages, districts and countries.     

美国2011年财政研发预算重点与趋势分析

在金融危机的压力下,美国联邦政府近两年的研发预算增幅甚微,2011年仅增加0．23％,但投向基础研究的资金增幅创下近五年新高,“气候”成为继“生物医学”之后又一大战略重点。本文简要分析美国联邦财政2011年研发预算的分布及其重点,及近年来美财政对研发战略投资的趋势。