国际资本流动对中国货币政策影响的实证研究

在开放经济的"三元冲突"中,中国选择了固定汇率,较严格的资本管制和较大的货币政策独立性,即用少量货币政策独立性的丧失换取有限度的资本流动.但在这种组合下,随着我国资本流动规模的扩大,货币政策独立性也将进一步丧失.对于中国,货币政策的自主权至关重要,除非有能力继续维持更严格的资本管制,我国必须逐步扩大汇率的浮动区间.     

A spatial microsimulation approach for the analysis of commuter patterns: from individual to regional levels

The daily trip to work is ubiquitous, yet its characteristics differ widely from person to person and place to place. This is manifested in statistics on mode and distance of travel, which vary depending on a range of factors that operate at different scales. This heterogeneity is problematic for decision makers tasked with encouraging more sustainable commuter patterns. Numerical models, based on real commuting data, have great potential to aid the decision making process. However, we contend that new approaches are needed to advance knowledge about the social and geographical factors that relate to the diversity of commuter patterns, if policies targeted to specific individuals or places are to be effective. To this end, the paper presents a spatial microsimulation approach, which combines individual-level survey data with geographically aggregated census results to tackle the problem. This method overcomes the limitations imposed by the lack of available geocoded micro-data. Further, it allows a range of scales of analysis to be pursued in parallel and provides insights into both the types of area and individual that would benefit most from specific interventions.     

Impact of commuting by workers on household dietary diversity in rural India

Drawing insights from the literature on transformation of rural non-farm employment, pathways from agriculture to nutrition, and linkages between migration and nutritional status of household, we seek to understand differences in dietary diversity across three mutually exclusive types of rural Indian households: where all members work in rural areas, at least one member commutes to urban areas, at least one member has no fixed place of work. Our analysis is based on a nationally representative data set from India for the year 2009–10 and we use propensity score matching methods. We find that as compared to households with no commuters, households with rural–urban commuters have higher dietary diversity; whereas households with no fixed place workers have lower dietary diversity. We also find differences in dietary diversity across households which differ by their primary source of income.     

COVID-19, commuting flows,and air quality

Fossil-fuel burning transportation methods significantly contribute to air pollution. During the COVID-19 pandemic, South Korea experienced a 10-20% decline in commuting flows, even without government-mandated stay-at-home orders. This paper quantifies the impact that decreased commuting flows have on PM_2.5, PM₁₀, NO₂, CO, and SO₂, using municipality level commuting data. We find that a 1% decrease in commuting flows decreases air pollutants by 0.08-0.17%, after controlling for seasonality and time-varying local production. The effect was higher in regions with high initial pollution, and people recognized air quality improvements. These results emphasize the importance of encouraging cleaner transportation methods after the pandemic.     

亚洲新兴经济体国际资本流动驱动因素研究——基于GMM模型的实证分析

理解资本流入的驱动因素,对于设计一个有效的资本流动管理政策框架至关重要。本文研究了1998年至2018年间45个新兴经济体面临的各类资本流动的驱动因素,重点分析了资本流向亚洲地区的驱动因素与其他地区的共性和异质性。使用广义矩估计方法(GMM)对面板数据集的实证结果表明,对新兴经济体而言,制度质量和国内因素对吸引资本流入具有重要影响;对亚洲地区来说,人均收入增长和贸易开放是吸引资本流入的重要驱动因素,国内外利差水平和实际有效汇率变动对吸引组合投资和其他投资具有显著影响,VIX指数和影子利率对亚洲新兴经济体资本流动规模的影响也具有重要影响。这表明,在设计管理资本流入的政策框架时,全球经济金融合作和政策协调应被考虑在内。     

资本流动性:基于中国及其他亚洲新兴国家的比较分析

衡量发展中国家资本流动性的方法有总量规模法、储蓄—投资相关法、Edwards模型以及货币自主性检验法等四种方法。本文主要运用前三种方法测度了中国改革开放以来资本的流动性,并用前两种方法比较了中国和其他亚洲新兴国家资本流动性的差异。实证结果表明,所有亚洲新兴国家金融市场处于一种开放状态,并且在所有亚洲新兴国家中,中国的资本流动性是最低的。通过运用Kalman滤波技术对中国的资本流动性进行动态分析,并没有发现1997年亚洲金融危机后中国采取更加严格的资本管制对资本流动性产生影响的证据。实证研究发现,在1997年亚洲金融危机爆发前,中国的资本流动性远低于其他亚洲新兴国家。对于发展中国家资本市场的开放来说,采取渐进式改革而不是激进式改革可能更为明智、更加合理。     

大都市郊区新城通勤行为空间研究——以南京市为例

通过对南京的东山、仙林和江北三个新城的深入考察和访问,并以问卷为基础,研究了新城居民在通勤行为空间上的主要表现,以及在居民通勤行为中新城和主城的空间互动机制。结果表明,一方面,新城的结构与功能影响其通勤流的空间分布,另一方面,主城和新城之间的互动关系在新城通勤空间的发展中起着尤为重要的作用。     

Daily mutual fund flows and redemption policies

We examine how redemption policies affect daily fund flows in open-end mutual funds. Since short-term trading of fund shares, as manifested in daily fund flows, can have an adverse impact on returns to the fund’s shareholders, mutual funds might find it desirable to discourage short-term trading through the use of redemption fees. However, if daily fund flows are due to fund shareholders’ legitimate liquidity demands, the redemption fee would have little effect on daily fund flows and possibly adversely affect fund shareholders by imposing a liquidity cost on them. We find that the likelihood of a fund charging a redemption fee is largely a function of its overall fee structure. We also use a sample of funds that imposed redemption fees to examine whether the distribution of daily fund flows changes after the initiation of the redemption fee. We find that the redemption fee is an effective tool in controlling the volatility of fund flows.     

Allocation of tasks,arrangement of working hours and commuting in different Norwegian households

Weekly working hours and commuting distance can be seen as indicators of equality/inequality between spouses. Traditionally, it is women who adjust their career more readily to meeting family obligations. In an era with a focus on equality between the genders in regard to both education and paid work, it is obvious to think of equality regarding working hours as well, and of distance to and from work. In this study we utilized data from the Norwegian Travel Survey of 2009 to examine the results of adjustments made in weekly working hours and commuting distance in families in which both husband and wife are in paid work. These indicate that the family situation is significant, and that, among other things, children in a family does not lead to any reduction in men’s working hours or commuting distance.Living in the periphery of large cities is disadvantageous for women who want to work full time, while living within a city tends to be to their advantageous in this regard. The results from the analysis of commuting distance show that women do not commute as far as men in comparable groups (working hours, family type, education, place of living, income, access to a car and occupation) and that the policy of regional enlargement is far from gender neutral. So long as it is women who adjust their labour market participation – both temporal and spatial – an enlargement of the regional/geographical labour market resulting potentially in longer commuting distances will primarily favour those who have the possibility to travel irrespectively of family situation, i.e. men, not women.     

Intra-metropolitan shifts in labor demand and the adjustment of local markets

I offer new evidence on the adjustment of local labor markets to geographic shifts in labor demand within US metropolitan areas using a unique data set in which metropolitan subregions are geographically matched across the 1970–1980 and 1980–1990 decades. The evidence uncovered paints the following picture. Workers, especially those with less education, make incomplete adjustments within metropolitan areas in response to intra-metropolitan demand shifts. Although blacks may not make especially limited adjustments, they have disproportionately suffered deleterious effects from job movements because the demand shifts have tended to be away from their places of residence.