论本币升值对国内物价的影响路径

本币升值可通过实体经济、虚拟经济以及货币政策三个途径影响一国的国内价格;本币升值通过国内物价影响经济稳定存在一个正反馈机制;从短期来看,人民币升值不仅不能抑制国内物价上涨,还可能推动国内物价的上涨。     

The impacts of Hong Kong’s Currency Board reforms on the interbank market

Among the economies with a Currency Board System (CBS), Hong Kong (HK) is probably the one with the largest and most developed financial sector, as well as the highest capital mobility. Hence, studying HK’s CBS is not only crucial to HK, but also important for the understanding of the modern CBS. This paper outlines the major monetary reforms in HK since the late 1980s. The impacts of these reforms and the 1997–1998 Asian Financial Crisis are then examined empirically. We focus on the differentials between the US and HK interbank interest rates. We assume the conditional-mean equation follows an autoregressive process and the conditional-variance equation follows a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process. This model captures the time-varying level and volatility of the differential. In light of the empirical results we provide an assessment of the reforms in HK.     

Rethinking the role of NCBs in the EMU

Five years after the introduction of unified monetary policy in the EMU, some member countries are wondering whether they have ceded too much of their policy-making powers. The fact that National Central Banks no longer carry out sizable expansionary open market or foreign exchange market operations suggests that they face substantially reduced abilities to set economic policy.This paper demonstrates that, in fact, very little power has been yielded: on the fiscal front, the force of such policy initiatives is enhanced by the fixity of the exchange rate. On the monetary front, we show that there is an observational equivalence between all Central Bank actions under fixed exchange rates. This implies that the authorities retain the same amount of policy flexibility as before. So long as they use an alternative form of policy initiative, carrying out what previously would have been characterized as sterilized foreign exchange market operations, their ability to influence the macro performance of their economy is undiminished.     

国际贸易发票货币的选择——兼论人民币国际化

一国货币作为国际贸易发票货币取决于货币汇率的波动性、该国在占据的出口市场份额以及该国出口产品的差异性程度。随着人民币汇率形成机制更加灵活和弹性化及在国际贸易中采用本币计价以回避汇率风险,人民币成为国际贸易发票货币有期可待。     

哥伦布发现美洲的动因和影响

哥伦布发现美洲是世界史上的划时代大事 ,使世界历史发生了历史性的变化 ,是人类历史的一个重大转折点。它打破了世界各民族的原始封闭隔离状态 ,扩大了世界各民族间相互影响活动范围 ,从而使世界历史开始形成。本文就哥伦布发现美洲的动因和所产生的影响做一些肤浅的论述。     

The relevance of currency risk in the EMU

We investigate how the elimination of intra-European exchange risk may affect international financial markets using a conditional version of the International CAPM. We estimate the EMU and non-EMU components of aggregate currency risk and document significant exposures to both. The premium for EMU risk is positive and associated with exposure to the French, Italian and Spanish currencies. The premium for non-EMU risk is consistently negative and accounts for most of the aggregate currency premiums. In the 1990s, exposures to EMU risk declined significantly while exposures to non-EMU risk increased. Hence the adoption of the Euro is unlikely to have a large impact on aggregate currency risk premiums.     

关于完善中国商业银行信息披露制度的思考

新巴塞尔资本协议作为指导和规范各国银行业经营活动的一个国际性标准,对银行业信息的披露提出了具体要求。目前,中国商业银行信息披露制度与新巴塞尔资本协议的相关方面存在不少差距。按照新协议的监管要求,缩小国际差距,加快完善信息披露制度,对当前中国银行业稳健经营,提高国际竞争力具有重要意义。     

试论现阶段电子商务的交易安全技术

随着信息技术日新月异的发展，人类正在进入以网络为主的信息时代，基于Intemet开展的电子商务已逐渐成为人们进行商务活动的新模式。但电子商务的安全问题变得越来越突出，建立一个安全、便捷的电子商务应用环境，关键在于保证整个商务活动中信息的安全性，使基于Intemet的电子交易方式与传统交易方式一样安全可靠。电子商务安全包括计算机网络安全和商务交易安全。商务交易安全主要是通过加密技术、安全机制、安全协议进行保证的。     

对EWS模型中金融危机界定的比较研究 ——利用EVT理论

对主要金融危机预警模型中货币危机指标(货币压力指数)与阈值的确定方式进行比较分析,之后利用EVT对EMPI的尾部进行估计,同时确定新的个体阈值,并与原模型的结果进行对比。发现不同的EW S模型确定的危机时间有较大差异,各种方法在危机的判断上存在分歧;三种主要EW S模型中的EMPI在统计上表现出较强的非正态性。     

RTAs:中国进一步扩大对外经贸合作的新途径

20世纪90年代尤其是世界贸易组织建立和运作以来,区域贸易安排迅猛发展,呈现出许多新的特点.在经济全球化和中国已加入世界贸易组织的新形势下,中国积极参与和推进区域贸易安排是在更大范围、更广领域和更高层次上参与国际经济技术合作与竞争、以开放促改革促发展的新途径.应进一步加强区域贸易安排的研究,建立国家区域贸易安排运作机制,制定切实可行的区域贸易安排计划,以提升中国经济的竞争力,迎接世界区域贸易安排发展带来的机遇和挑战.