Cashlessness in India: Vision,policy and practices

Over the past few years, an increasing convergence can be observed between international and Indian initiatives towards cashlessness, often involving a broad range of actors and influences. Despite this convergence, it is also clear that the conceptualization and implementation, or goals and outcomes of cashlessness can vary considerably, which indicates the need for a closer look at the Indian case. In this introductory note to the special issue on cashlessness in India, we outline the variety of institutions, stakeholders (regulatory, financial and technological actors), technologies and policies involved. As we have observed, digital payments and financial inclusion are two significant planks of cashlessness in India. Perhaps as a result, digital payments have been intentionally defined in a broad manner in India – ranging from anti-cash to less-cash and now contactless payments in the aftermath of Covid-19. Considering the variety of legal, economic, social and technological concerns involved, this special issue adopts 2 complementary foci to study cashlessness in India: technological visions and the systems undergirding it, and practices of end users. The special issue includes four papers. The first paper argues that the Digital India programme may lead to the commercialization of bias. The second paper historicizes the Indian demonetization of 2016 and examines its stated and unstated goals. The next paper provides a conceptual model on technology adoption in the context of digital payments. The final paper argues that users strategically switch between multiple payments media based on the context in which the transaction is taking place.     

Returns,volatility and spillover – A paradigm shift in India?

We investigate spillovers in returns and volatility among five major financial assets in India. Spillovers account for more than 25 percent of the forecast error variance in all the five markets. Banking, real estate and gold matter the most for India. Shocks from US economy to India arrive via Gold and forex markets. Events including the general elections and demonetization were contemporaneous to major episodes of return and volatility spillovers in the analyzed assets. Demonetization policy and President Trump’s election have increased regulatory risk for the Indian IT sector outlining its importance for gold and banking sector volatility shock transmission.     

Do households care about cash? Exploring the heterogeneous effects of India's demonetization

The recent demonetization exercise in India is a unique monetary experiment that made 86 percent of the total currency in circulation invalid. In a country where the currency in circulation constitutes 12 percent of GDP, the policy turned out to be a purely exogenous macroeconomic shock that affected all agents of the economy. This paper documents the impact of this macroeconomic shock on households. By construction, the policy helped households with bank accounts in disposing of the demonetized cash. We use a new household-level data set to tease out the effects of this policy on households with no bank accounts relative to households with bank accounts. Our results show that the impact of demonetization on household income and expenditure has been transient. We find that households with no bank accounts experienced a significant decrease in expenditure in November and December-2016. We find a slight decline in income in November-2016 but the effect dissipates thereafter. There is significant heterogeneity in the impact across households in different asset quartiles. We also show evidence of recovery of household finances whereby households were able to smooth out consumption during the post-demonetization period. However, this recovery phase is associated with an increase in household borrowing from different sources. In particular, informal borrowing (e.g. money lenders and shops) increased during this period.