半导体存储器及发展趋势

半导体存储器的容量和速度决策着计算机系统运行速度。目前CPU芯片18个月一更新，为了赶上这个速度，半导体存储器的发展也日新月异。     

When to accept a sequence of gambles

When is a sequence of gambles, which is initially rejected eventually accepted? The eventual acceptance is defined as a pair property between the utility function and the sequences of gambles. A sequence of gambles is accepted when the gambles follow a large deviation principle and the utility function is non-satiated and bounded from below in a certain way. The number of gambles required for acceptance is computed.     

"大沈阳经济区"的构建与辽宁老工业基地的振兴

大沈阳经济区是指沈阳与周边经济社会活动有密切联系的地区所形成的“区域经济共同体”.它的建立对于振兴东北老工业基地具有重要的战略意义.但在建立这一经济区的过程中也不可避免的存在一些问题,这需要通过一体化运作、机制创新等有效途径来加以解决.     

Minnesota-type adaptive hierarchical priors for large Bayesian VARs

Large Bayesian VARs with stochastic volatility are increasingly used in empirical macroeconomics. The key to making these highly parameterized VARs useful is the use of shrinkage priors. We develop a family of priors that captures the best features of two prominent classes of shrinkage priors: adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors. Like adaptive hierarchical priors, these new priors ensure that only ‘small’ coefficients are strongly shrunk to zero, while ‘large’ coefficients remain intact. At the same time, these new priors can also incorporate many useful features of the Minnesota priors such as cross-variable shrinkage and shrinking coefficients on higher lags more aggressively. We introduce a fast posterior sampler to estimate BVARs with this family of priors—for a BVAR with 25 variables and 4 lags, obtaining 10,000 posterior draws takes about 3 min on a standard desktop computer. In a forecasting exercise, we show that these new priors outperform both adaptive hierarchical priors and Minnesota priors.     

股权投资差额及后续追加投资差额的会计处理

股权投资差额是指长期股权投资采用权益法核算时,投资企业的初始投资成本与应享有被投资单位所有者权益份额之间的差额。企业采用权益法核算长期股权投资,初次投资时产生的股权投资差额进行了摊销或者计入了资本公积,后来企业又追加投资产生新的股权投资差额,应结合初次投资产生的股权投资差额一并考虑,分别按与初次投资时产生的股权投资差额方向相同与否进行处理。     

大股东资金占用与审计师的监督

本文研究审计师对大股东占用上市公司资金行为的监督作用。通过对1997年到2002年间的上市公司进行分析,我们发现随着大股东资金占用程度的加大,审计师更加倾向于出示非标准意见。在大股东占用资金最多的10%的公司年度中,审计师出示非标准意见的概率高达近50%。在控制了其他影响审计师意见的变量以后,大股东资金占用程度仍然是决定审计意见的一个非常显著的因素。这说明我国的审计师对中国资本市场出现的大股东资金占用问题有一定的认识,并且将其反映到审计师意见中去。我们进一步的分析发现: (1)被审计师出具了非标准意见的公司,其大股东占用资金反而更加持续。这说明审计师意见对公司的监督意义不大,公司并没有因为审计师的意见而减轻占用程度。(2)被审计师出具了非标准意见的公司,其大股东占用对未来的股票收益的负影响与其他公司并没有区别。这说明投资者对审计师的意见并没有给予足够的重视。本文的研究结果说明,审计师对大股东盘剥中小股东的现象进行了监督、对大股东资金占用严重的公司出示了更多的非标准意见,然而这些非标准意见并没有引起各方面的重视,一方面公司的治理并没有改善,另一方面投资者也没有因审计师的意见而避免更多的损失。     

Option-based compensation: a survey

Despite empirical research and theoretical validity, there is mixed evidence on whether employee stock options align interests between management and shareholders by turning managers into owners. What used to be a functional tool introduced in the 1950s, has gotten out of hand, as perceived by the press and popular literature. The main catalyst is the accounting treatment stock options receive. This paper provides an overview of the empirical research in the field and discusses the current accounting treatment of employee stock options and impending changes. We conclude by proposing alternative compensation tools.     

Learning,large deviations and rare events

We examine the role of generalized stochastic gradient constant gain (SGCG) learning in generating large deviations of an endogenous variable from its rational expectations value. We show analytically that these large deviations can occur with a frequency associated with a fat-tailed distribution even though the model is driven by thin-tailed exogenous stochastic processes. We characterize these large deviations, driven by sequences of consistently low or consistently high shocks and then apply our model to the canonical asset pricing framework. We demonstrate that the tails of the stationary distribution of the price–dividend ratio will follow a power law.     

Escape dynamics: A continuous-time approximation

We extend a continuous-time approximation approach to the analysis of escape dynamics in economic models with constant gain adaptive learning. This approach is based on the application of the results of continuous-time version of large deviations theory to the linear diffusion approximation of the original discrete-time dynamics under learning. We characterize escape dynamics by analytically deriving the most probable escape point and mean escape time. The approximation is tested on the Phelps problem of a government controlling inflation while adaptively learning a misspecified Phillips curve, studied previously by Sargent (1999) and Cho et al. (2002) (henceforth, CWS), among others. We compare our results with simulations extended to very low values of the constant gain and show that, for the lowest gains, our approach approximates simulations relatively well. We express reservations regarding the applicability of any approach based on large deviations theory to characterizing escape dynamics for economically plausible values of constant gain in the model of CWS when escapes are not rare. We show that for these values of the gain it is possible to derive first passage times for learning dynamics reduced to one dimension without resort to large deviations theory. This procedure delivers mean escape time results that fit the simulations closely. We explain inapplicability of large deviations theory by insufficient averaging near the point of self-confirming equilibrium for relatively large gains which makes escapes relatively frequent, suggest the changes which might help approaches based on the theory to work better in this gain interval, and describe a simple heuristic method for determining the range of constant gain values for which large deviations theory could be applicable.     

Valuation effects of corporate social responsibility

This paper develops a valuation model of the firm that provides for the expenditure of corporate resources in support of community, social or environmental causes. We show that under certain circumstances CSR expenditures create value for the firm. We also test our model by simulations and confirm that, at least under some conditions, CSR does pay off in the form of value creation.