区域经济一体化的最优货币区理论分析

欧盟是迄今为止运行最为成功的区域经济一体化组织,欧元的出现以及成功运行标志着区域经济一体化进入货币一体化的更高层次。作者首先阐述了区域经济一体化理论的产生与发展以及蒙代尔教授提出的最优货币区理论,并提出了从最优货币区理论的角度来分析区域经济一体化理论的观点,然后探讨了在一个经济区域内建立最优货币区的标准的问题,最后用 GG-LL模型分析了区域内各经济体与最优货币区的关系,从而最终建立了分析区域经济一体化本质的新视野。     

Monetary and Financial Cooperation Between China and the One Belt One Road Countries

ABSTRACT

Based on the theory of optimal currency area (OCA), we calculate the OCA index between China and the OBOR partners with the expressed objective of identifying which partners exhibit monetary and financial compatibilities, and hence present the best potential in terms of cost and benefits. Our findings suggest that among South East Asia region, Malaysia exhibits the highest compatibility and profit potential, followed by Thailand and Vietnam. For the East European area, Poland and Croatia show the best potential in terms of monetary and financial cooperation; with the Czech Republic as close third. Based on our computation, currently Central Asia and the Middle East do not possess the condition or potential for beneficial financial and monetary collaboration.     

东亚货币合作可行性的经济数据检验——基于OCA理论的分析

在最优货币区理论构筑的分析框架下,东亚区域在经济开放度、出口产品结构相似性、经济冲击对称性方面达到了OCA理论的标准,而在生产要素的流动性、金融市场一体化等方面距离最优货币区的标准尚有差距,但是这种差距正在缩小。通货膨胀相似性方面东亚整体虽未满足OCA标准的要求,但是有次区域已经符合这一标准。考虑到最优货币区标准的内生性,而且大量文献通过对东亚地区进行分组并采用不同的研究方法,证明东亚地区存在形成最优货币区的潜力,因而对次区域的货币合作可行性分析依然乐观。     

欧债危机的根源及对策分析——基于最优货币区内生性理论

根据最优货币区内生性理论,加入最优货币区的决定取决于一体化、对称性和劳动力市场弹性三种内生性。美国次贷危机导致欧元区对称性下降,金融一体化、劳动力市场弹性不足和财政转移支付等补偿机制的缺失,使得欧元区未能形成最优货币区。欧元区必须通过要素市场改革和推进财政一体化等措施,才能走出困境。     

Is Monetary Cooperation Among the Four Regions Across the Taiwan Strait Feasible?

Drawing on the optimum currency area (OCA) and exchange rate theories, we use an extended OCA index approach to assess the feasibility of regional monetary cooperation in the four regions across the Taiwan Strait (FRTS). In addition to more common variables, such as differences in economic structure, inflation rates, and interest rates, we find that the asymmetric shock in money supply is an important factor affecting the comprehensive cost of regional monetary cooperation among the FRTS. We conclude that regional monetary cooperation among the FRTS is feasible according to empirical analysis of OCA indexes between the FRTS and a comparison of the OCA indexes between the FRTS and the European Union (EU).     

A Preconceived Formula for Sovietization: The Communist Takeover of North Korea

Abstract

This article examines an endogeneity issue within the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory. According to the cost-benefit analysis, we found that there are the upper and the lower bounds in the degree of monetary integration for a monetary union to be created. We also found that a country may secede from the monetary union, depending on its degree of integration. A country may also secede when production specialization is facilitated with monetary integration within a framework of the “OCA line”. We also consider the endogeneity of the “OCA Index”, and applied our analysis to the optimum number of world currencies.     

Sources of asymmetric shocks: The exchange rate or other culprits?

We analyze and quantify the determinants of medium-term real exchange rate (RER) changes. First, we discuss the sources of asymmetric shocks causing exchange rate variability and the role of the RER as a shock absorber or generator. Secondly, we use data for 21 advanced and late transition economies to gauge the extent to which medium-term bilateral real exchange rate variability can be explained by various fundamental factors. Using Bayesian model averaging, we find that out of 22 factors under consideration, four types of dissimilarities within a given pair of economies are likely to be included in the true model: dissimilarities as regards (i) financial development, (ii) per capita income growth, (iii) central bank autonomy, and (iv) the structure of the economy. A regression based on these four factors indicates that they explain about 96 percent of the sample average level of three year RER variability. In the logic of our approach, the remaining part of the total variability represents an upper estimate of the influence of the foreign exchange market itself. For our sample, the contribution of the real exchange rate itself to asymmetric shocks therefore appears to be very low.     

内地和香港的最优货币区实证研究--一种不同的VAR方法

内地和香港的货币和汇率制度均有一定的特殊性,将一般文献中的对最优货币区进行对称性检验的向量自回归(VAR)方法直接套用会有一定的问题,本文在对最优货币区理论分析的基础上,用产出、价格和利率构造VAR模型对中国内地和香港的名义经济指标和经济冲击相关性进行了实证研究。     

东亚区域货币合作的实证分析

本文运用OCA指数对东亚地区区域货币合作的可行性进行了实证分析,认为目前东亚地区并不具备实现完全的区域货币一体化的条件.而从长远看,在东盟五国之间、大中华经济圈内实现货币的统一却是历史发展的必然.     

The transmission of business cycles: Lessons from the 2004 enlargement of the EU and the adoption of the euro

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic interdependencies of seven Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) with the Euro Area (EA) through trade relationship. We estimate a near‐VAR model and simulate the responses of activity in those CEECs to output shocks for 12 former members of the EA before and after the 2004 enlargement of the European Union. During both periods, empirical results show that spillover effects come through the main economies of the EA: Germany, France and Italy. Furthermore, CEECs were more responsive to output shocks in the EA after 2004 than before (3.3 times more on average). Increases in spillover effects are larger for the three CEECs that adopted the Euro early (Slovenia, Slovakia and Estonia) than the other CEECs but without higher trade intensity with the EA. Our results show that trade effects are positive inside the same currency area but negative for the CEECs without the euro.