Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article

Estimates of central bank intervention losses or profits vary widely; some estimates find substantial losses, others profits. In most cases, estimated profits are not risk-adjusted, and risk adjustment can have large effects. Furthermore, profit estimates involve variables integrated of order one, and because of this test-statistics may have nonstandard distributions; few studies take this into account. Estimates of risk-adjusted profits for the US Fed and the Swedish Riksbank, with allowances for possible nonstandard distributions, suggest that neither made losses and might have made significant profits.     

鞭辟入里的讽刺与敏锐的思辨能力——评王清平的长篇小说《秘书们》

王清平的长篇官场小说《秘书们》饱含哀悯之情,在矛盾中表现秘书的辛酸坚韧、困惑追求、荣耀屈辱,突出秘书的尴尬,表达了秘书们悟到说不出或不敢说的强烈心声,展示运河市党政秘书的众生相。小说以鞭辟入里的讽刺和敏锐的思辨能力再一次引发世人的关注。作家构思奇巧,有意识地加速推进情节的快速发展,适应现代人竞争激烈快节奏的阅读心理,语言特别有味道,很受欢迎。《秘书们》在审美愉悦中唤醒人们的心灵,使人们对尊严、自由更加肃然起敬。     

西安市房地产市场投机行为度研究

近年来,我国房地产市场日渐升温,许多城市出现房地产投机行为严重的现象,造成房价的不断上涨。文章利用西安市房地产市场2006-2011年的月度统计数据,测算出西安市房地产市场的投机行为度为0.322,反映出西安市房地产市场存在一定程度的投机泡沫。因此,建议加强房地产市场的调控力度,通过开征物业税和增加保障性住房等措施来抑制投机行为。     

应对发展中国家反倾销的哲学思辨

哲学思辨性是一种关于事物普遍本质的辨证理论,能揭示事物的发展规律。伴随着全球经济一体化的进程和后金融危机的影响,发展中国家将反倾销作为贸易保护主义的重要手段,对华反倾销呈现出增长趋势。本文基于发展中国家对我国反倾销的现状,运用哲理的逻辑、辨析的思维方式,探索对华反倾销的成因和规避反倾销的对策。     

Financial activity in agricultural futures markets: evidence from quantile regressions

This study analyses the relationship between financial activity and price returns in 12 US agricultural futures markets. It contributes to the existing research by exploring the forecasting power of trading activity for returns from the perspective of conditional quantiles. Quantile regressions detect Granger‐causal effects from positions of speculators and index traders to price returns in a wide range of commodity markets such as cocoa, coffee, corn, sugar and SRW wheat.     

Personal perception and community speculation: A British resort in the 19th century

The paper presents a case history of the origin and early development of what later became a major UK seaside resort. Weston-super-Mare. Early developers were faced with considerable environmental difficulties, and by using a variety of contemporary documentary sources the paper considers how the problems were overcome within the context of both developers' and early visitors' perceptions, and of the regional market for tourism in the early nineteenth century. The reaction of the existing local community to development potential is also considered, and more general conclusions are reached on the nature of resort development in the nineteenth century.     

凯恩斯经济学方法的科学哲学评价

主流经济学在凯恩斯经济学形成之后,一直存在着争论,如何理解凯恩斯经济学理论的真谛,是当前研究现代经济学一个值得关注的问题,而在理解凯恩斯经济学理论中有关他的研究方法的哲学思想内涵是方法论的根本,也是构成其经济学理论的重要组成部分。本文以凯恩斯的《通论》为基础,分析凯恩斯经济学方法的哲学基础,并在方法论意义上进行了评价。分析结果表明,对于凯恩斯经济学的理解应当以全面发展的眼光看待,宏观经济学只是其理论起源的一个方面,追求经济思维的合理性和适应人类经济活动的需要是凯恩斯经济学方法论的根本。     

The Beauty Contest and Short‐Term Trading

Short‐termism need not breed informational price inefficiency even when generating beauty contests. We demonstrate this claim in a two‐period market with persistent liquidity trading and risk‐averse, privately informed, short‐term investors and find that prices reflect average expectations about fundamentals and liquidity trading. Informed investors engage in “retrospective” learning to reassess inferences (about fundamentals) made during the trading game's early stages. This behavior introduces strategic complementarities in the use of information and can yield two stable equilibria that can be ranked in terms of liquidity, volatility, and informational efficiency. We derive implications that explain market anomalies as well as empirical regularities.