Spillovers from universities: Evidence from the land-grant program

This paper estimates the short- and long-run effects of universities on geographic clustering of economic activity, labor market composition and local productivity and presents evidence of local spillovers from universities. I treat the designation of land-grant universities in the 1860s as a natural experiment after controlling for the confounding factors with a combination of synthetic control methods and event-study analyses. Three key results are obtained. First, the designation increased local population density by 6 percent within 10 years and 45 percent in 80 years. Second, the designation did not change the relative size of local manufacturing sector. Third, the designation enhanced local manufacturing output per worker by $2136 (1840 dollars; 57 percent) in 80 years while the short-run effects were negligible. This positive effect on the productivity in non-education sectors suggests the existence of local spillovers from universities. Over an 80-year horizon, my results indicate that the increase in manufacturing productivity reflects both the impact of direct spillovers from universities and general agglomeration economies that arise from the increase in population.     

Investigating tail-risk dependence in the cryptocurrency markets: A LASSO quantile regression approach

We construct the complete network of tail risk spillovers among major cryptocurrencies using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) quantile regression. We capture important features of the network, including major risk-driving and major risk-receiving currencies, and the evolution of the tail dependence among the currencies over time. Importantly, we reveal a striking finding that the right tail dependence among the cryptocurrencies is significantly stronger than the left tail counterpart. This unique characteristic may have contributed to the rise in popularity of cryptocurrencies over the last few years. Our portfolio analysis reveals that diversification in cryptocurrency investment can be accomplished simply by employing the naïve equal-weighted scheme even when transaction costs are taken into account.     

Nonlinear causality testing with stepwise multivariate filtering: Evidence from stock and currency markets

We examine the spillovers of the US subprime crisis to Asian and European economies and in particular to what extent currency and stock markets have been affected by the crisis. Linear and nonlinear dependencies are detected after pairwise and system-wise causality analysis. A new stepwise multivariate filtering approach is implemented after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the raw data and in VAR/VECM residuals using multivariate GARCH models. Significant nonlinear causal linkages persisted even after the application of GARCH-BEKK, CCC-GARCH and DCC-GARCH modelling. This indicates that volatility effects might partly induce nonlinear causality. Perhaps new short-term asset-pricing models could be developed to explain this stylized fact. These results might also have important implications for hedging, trading strategies and financial market regulation.     

Convergence and divergence in regional agricultural productivity growth: evidence from Italian regions, 1951–2002

This article analyzes long‐term agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth at regional level by testing its time‐series properties and identifying factors associated with divergence as opposed to convergence. The empirical application concerns Italian regions over the 1951–2002 time period. TFP growth decomposition ultimately attributes the observed productivity growth performance to these contrasting (convergence vs. divergence) forces. We find that technological spillovers are the key convergence force regardless of how the spillover effects are computed. At the same time, forces favoring convergence are almost offset by divergence forces (mainly scale or learning effects). This decomposition may explain the persistence of TFP growth rate differences in Italian agriculture, and could be applicable elsewhere.     

中国金融系统风险溢出效应研究——基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络

文章基于溢出指数和波动溢出网络方法,从静态和动态分别度量我国金融系统不同子市场间的风险联动水平及变动趋势。研究结果表明,我国金融系统风险溢出效应整体水平较高,各市场间联动性较强;市场内部滞后效应大于市场之间溢出效应,两两有向溢出效应具有强不对称性;作为我国金融系统的风险中心,货币市场始终处于风险溢出方,但在金融危机时期,其对外风险溢出效应相对减弱,而大宗商品市场、资本市场、房地产市场等其余市场的风险溢出效应相对增强。值得注意的是,当前我国金融系统整体风险溢出水平较高,市场间风险相关性较强,需要进一步加强系统性风险的监测与防范。     

FDI技术溢出与挤出效应——基于DEA与湖北省面板数据的实证分析

首先运用基于DEA的Malmquist生产率指数对湖北省各地区全要素生产率进行测量和分解,然后我们分别建立FDI技术溢出测量模型和扩展Panama Teanravisitsagoo的绝对挤出效应模型,对湖北省各地区的面板数据运用SUR(似然不相关回归)加权的方法,进行广义最小二乘估计。最终分别得出面板数据的技术溢出和挤出效应的变系数模型。通过实证分析,我们可以首次得出湖北省FDI的技术溢出效应不太明显以及FDI对内资的挤出效应具有内在逻辑的一致性。     

溢出效应、R&D合作及政府补贴

为了纠正技术研发的负外部性(溢出效应),政府一般可以选择3种政策工具,即专利制度、R&D合作以及政府补贴。对厂商进行R&D合作和向厂商R&D提供补贴的情况进行了比较分析,发现:考虑3种博弈情况(即R&D竞争、R&D合作和垄断),当溢出率较小时,最优R&D补贴提高了R&D的水平、增加了研发产出和厂商利润。     

Spillovers in Exchange Rates and the Effects of Global Shocks on Emerging Market Currencies

This paper provides an investigation into the spillover effects of exchange rate returns and volatility for developed and emerging market currencies, using data from 1997 to 2011. The results suggest that spillovers in exchange rate returns have increased steadily over time, in moderate reaction to economic events. In contrast, spillovers in total observed volatility (measured by squared returns) react more strongly to economic events, and this transmission has remained at a relatively high level since the global financial crisis. Furthermore, over the course of time, global shocks would appear to account for a larger proportion of aggregate exchange rate volatility (and the relative importance of domestic shocks has declined). The paper also considers whether the increase in volatility spillover is due to sudden shocks, or whether it is due to changes in the stochastic trend of the underlying volatility process. The results suggests that in most cases, this increase is due to sudden shocks, however, in certain instances country‐specific events may perpetuate changes to the trend of the underlying volatility spillover.     

外商直接投资对工业技术溢出效应的分析——基于江苏省与广东省的比较研究

江苏和广东是我国FDI流入最为集中的地区,有关资料显示,两个地区的外资流入量占我国外资流入量的60%左右,同时流入两省2/3的资金流向工业。本文检验了1995～2006年间江苏与广东的外商直接投资对工业的技术外溢效应,同时检验了FDI外溢效应影响因素人力资本、贸易开放度和R&D对外溢效应的影响。研究认为,从总体上看两省利用FDI有正的溢出效应,但并不显著。     

外商直接投资对中国企业创新的外溢效应研究：基于垂直联系的视角

利用世界银行对中国的企业调研数据,本文从垂直联系视角考察了FDI对中国企业创新的外溢效应。分析的结果表明,垂直联系有利于企业创新与技术溢出。并且,与水平溢出相比,垂直联系渠道发生的溢出更为显著。对垂直联系影响因素的分析表明,拥有外方合作伙伴、位于工业园或出口加工区、加入商业协会、企业拥有较高的国内市场份额、国内市场进口产品份额较高、受国外教育经理的人数比例越高,这些因素均有利于企业垂直联系的建立。然而,企业的出口倾向对前后向联系的作用相反。