A Bayesian approach to excess volatility,short-term underreaction and long-term overreaction during financial crises

In this paper, we introduce a new Bayesian approach to explain some market anomalies during financial crises and subsequent recovery. We assume that the earnings shock of an asset follows a random walk model with and without drift to incorporate the impact of financial crises. We further assume the earning shock follows an exponential family distribution to accommodate symmetric as well as asymmetric information. By using this model setting, we develop some properties on the expected earnings shock and its volatility, and establish properties of investor behavior on the stock price and its volatility during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. Thereafter, we develop properties to explain excess volatility, short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and their magnitude effects during financial crises and the subsequent recovery. We also explain why behavioral finance theory could be used to explain many of the asset pricing anomalies, but traditional asset pricing models cannot achieve this aim.     

A Graphical Exposition of the Inconsistency of Optimal Monetary Plans

Abstract: The author presents a geometrical framework in which the inability of discretionary policy (consistent policy in the sense of Kydland and Prescott) to be socially optimal is demonstrated. Policy based on a rule results in a higher level of utility. The author extends the model to demonstrate that policy of a Rogoff conservative central banker results in approaching the same equilibrium as that from a monetary rule. Finally, the framework shows that attempts to exploit the Phillips curve result in stagflation.     

紫斑牡丹的濒危机制与保护对策

紫斑牡丹是我国特有的濒危植物，也是所有野生牡丹中受威胁程度最高的种类，从内在致危因素和外部致危因素两方面揭示了其濒危的机制，有针对性地提出了保护对策。     

稳健原则及其现实运用

稳健原则是会计核算及信息披露遵循的一条重要会计原则 ,其产生和广泛应用有着深刻的经济背景和哲学基础。稳健原则在我国会计准则和制度中得到了越来越广泛的应用     

Bankers in the Boardroom and Firm Performance in China

We use a dataset comprising the appointments of commercial bankers as board of directors at Chinese listed firms and find that financially distressed firms are more likely to recruit a commercial banker as a director of the board. The presence of a banker on the board increases access to bank loans, yet many investors react negatively to announcements of such appointments. We also find that such appointments are typically followed by a drop in the appointing firm’s operating performance, and an increase in rent-seeking activities. This suggests that bank directors cannot strengthen corporate governance. Most financial resources are expropriated by corporate insiders.     

Local Political Marketing in the Context of the Conservative Party

Local political marketing can be defined as marketing related strategy, activities, and tactics implemented by a political party in a local geographic constituency, in order to attempt to maximize aggregate potential voter satisfaction, and therefore maximize total number of votes and electoral support in the constituency. Through 12 in-depth interviews with Local Constituency Party representatives from the Conservative Party, the study found that local political marketing was acknowledged by a majority of respondents although this was not unequivocal, and was frequently conflated with campaigning. Local political marketing was associated with: visual identity, language/messages, values, image, communication devices, awareness raising, data management and targeting, and simplification. The support from higher levels of the party in local political marketing was varied across constituencies. There was evidence of growing coordination/influence by higher levels of the party in local political marketing. However, this tended to be in seats judged as ‘winnable’.     

会计稳健性、经济租金与企业剩余收益

通过实证研究会计稳健性与企业剩余收益的关系,以及会计稳健性与经济租金对企业剩余收益的交互影响,发现会计稳健性与企业的剩余收益显著正相关,而会计稳健性和经济租金对企业剩余收益的交互影响较为复杂,其中：稳健性与研发密度、广告密度对剩余收益有显著的正面影响,但稳健性与企业规模、市场份额、流通股比例和资本密度对剩余收益的交互效应不明显。可见,提高会计稳健性,并不一定能为企业带来额外的经济租金收益。     

Is conservative reporting attractive to foreign institutional investors? Evidence from an emerging market

This study investigates the relation between conservative reporting and foreign institutional ownership using a unique dataset of firms in Turkey. In doing so, we distinguish between foreign funds and corporations. Contrary to prior findings, our analysis shows that conservative reporting is not necessarily a desirable accounting feature for foreign institutional investors. We also find that the interplay between conservative reporting and ownership is significantly different between foreign funds and corporations. The estimated negative relation holds only for foreign funds. Further analysis reveals that foreign funds do not find conservative reporting desirable in low-asymmetric information firms and reduce ownership with greater accounting conservatism in such firms. The analysis sheds significant lights on the relevance of conservative reporting in alleviating the negative consequences of asymmetric information.     

论财务管理中稳健性原则的应用

企业要想获得收益 ,就不能回避风险。本文主要从财务管理的角度 ,探讨了应用稳健性原则使企业在财务活动中减少风险损失的问题。