Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

On the Current Situation and Problems of High Education Institutes Digital Libraries Development

The paper discusses the necessity and objective of digital library system, and analyzes the current situation of the high education institute digital libraries in China as well as some potential problems. Development plan is proposed for the digital library system for universities.     

农民养老问题亟待解决

农村现行的家庭养老、土地养老、集体养老正在弱化,巩固家庭养老的基础地位,强化土地保障功能,辅之以社区扶持,推行多层次养老保险,符合中国国情和农村生产力发展水平,是解决农村养老问题的必然选择.     

Determinants of Current Account Imbalances in 16 OECD Countries: An Out-Of-Sample Perspective

We employ panel data as well as country-specific models to uncover empirically the determinants of current account imbalances. We find evidence of slope heterogeneity likely rendering the fixed-effect estimator inconsistent. Mean group estimation is followed to overcome the latter difficulty. Both estimation techniques are evaluated by means of in- and out-of-sample criteria. The mean group estimator outperforms the fixed-effect approach and, moreover, only three economic variables are found to impact on the current account balance significantly. These are the government budget balance, the domestic output gap and the changes of the terms of trade. We finally propose a parsimonious dynamic model of the current account, including only these variables and illustrate that it has similar predictive accuracy as country-specific benchmark models. JEL no. F32, C23, C53     

一项关于农村五保供养制度的实证研究——以闽北地区为例

农村五保供养制度是一项具有中国特色保障鳏寡孤独残疾人基本生活权益的制度,也是我国农村社会保障体系的重要组成部分。在实地调查的基础上,分析了闽北地区农村五保供养的现实状况,提出了未来建设农村五保供养制度的若干思路。     

石化企业乙烯物料平衡的实例分析

乙烯物料平衡是石化企业的主要物料平衡之一，由于乙烯衍生物的装置较多，影响石化企业乙烯物料平衡的因素也多。在分析了S企业的四个实例后，可以看出，搞好乙烯的物料平衡工作，可以提高乙烯下游装置的开工率和负荷率，从而提高企业的经济效益。     

Accrual accounting and Australian fiscal policy

Australian governments have recently moved from cash accounting to accrual accounting. Accrual accounting has been accompanied at the national government level by the introduction of a new key fiscal policy measure: the ‘fiscal balance’. This paper explains and evaluates this new fiscal measure. It concludes that, given the present fiscal policy of the Australian government, fiscal balance is a superior fiscal policy measure to the ‘cash’ budget balance measure which it replaced. However, from the alternative ‘golden rule’ policy standpoint, fiscal balance is not a meaningful fiscal policy measure — although its stock counterpart, net financial liabilities, certainly is.     

贸易差额的衡量:基于所有权还是所在地

本文在借鉴西方主要国家和有关国际机构在为建立基于所有权的国际贸易统计框架所做方法研究和探索实践的基础上,尝试确立完整的基于所有权的双边贸易差额统计框架,并且把这一原则与现行的跨境贸易差额进行了比较。一方面指出现行的跨境贸易差额高估我国贸易利得的主要原因,是外资企业净出口被计为中国的出口,而实际上它是外国资本在国际化生产中获得的贸易利得;另一方面为将来如何调整统计口径、得到反映现实的统计结果,提供可供参考的方向。     

Macroeconomic interdependence under incomplete markets

This paper uses a two-country, flexible-price model with overlapping generations of infinitely lived households to study the role of net foreign asset dynamics in the propagation of productivity shocks. Absence of Ricardian equivalence ensures existence of a unique steady-state level of net foreign assets, to which the economy returns following temporary shocks. Model dynamics are significantly different from those of a setup in which terms of trade movements perform all the international adjustment and net foreign assets do not move. The difference relative to a complete markets economy in which net foreign asset movements play no role in shock transmission is smaller. It is amplified if the substitutability across goods rises and if shocks are permanent.     

基于“行为经济学理论”的旅游者行为分析

传统的旅游者行为分析方法,主要是进行定性的分析,将各个因素进行框架分析,而对旅游者行为的影响因素分析深度不够。借助行为经济学的理论和分析方法,从旅游者的心理活动角度入手,注重旅游者的心理变量分析,应用前景理论和心理账户分析旅游者行为,充分考虑了情境因素和体验因素,使得关于旅游者的行为分析更加细化和接近现实生活。