各国通货紧缩的经济史比较研究

文章通过对世界各国的通货紧缩的经济史的比较研究 ,概括出通货紧缩的共性特征 ,并从各国的历史实践总结出我国目前治理通货紧缩的一些启示。     

关于我国财政政策导向调整的研究

近年来我国实施的积极财政政策确实在很大程度上促进了经济和社会的发展。但是随着经济市场化程度的不断提高和经济环境的变化，这种积极财政政策也表现出诸多的不适应性。因此应适时调整财政政策导向以适应经济和社会发展的新要求。拟从我国近年来实施的积极财政政策的成效分析出发，阐述了当前调整财政政策导向的必然性，并提出了今后我国财政政策的调整方向。     

我国通货紧缩的原因及治理

通货紧缩是影响当前我国经济走势的一个重要因素。本文从分析近年来我国价格变动的原因入手,从消费需求、投资、出口等几个方面阐述了影响价格走势的因素。对通货紧缩与通货膨胀进行了比较和界定,提出从改善供给质量、刺激消费需求、促进投资需求等几个方面来治理通货紧缩的思路和措施。     

On Keynes on inflation and unemployment

Keynes tends to be represented as someone who thought that alleviating unemployment was more important than any other consideration. Interestingly it seems that this was not always the case; he did not recommend employment creation under all conditions of excess labour supply. The great inflation of World War I and its aftermath left an indelible impression on him, and this mitigated his position on the importance of high levels of employment. In 1920 he recommended that inflation in the UK be controlled even if some unemployment would result, and there is at least some hint in his work that the relative importance to him of inflation and unemployment did not vary much over the remainder of his life.     

Is Downward Wage Flexibility the Primary Factor of Japan's Prolonged Deflation?

By using both macro‐ and micro‐level data, this paper investigates how wages and prices evolved during Japan's lost two decades. We find that downward nominal wage rigidity was present in Japan until the late 1990s, but disappeared after 1998 as annual wages became downwardly flexible. Moreover, nominal wage flexibility may have contributed to Japan's relatively low unemployment rates. Although macro‐level movements in nominal wages and prices seemed to be synchronized, such synchronicity is not observed at the industry level. Therefore, wage deflation does not seem to be a primary factor of Japan's prolonged deflation.     

Wilhelm Röpke and Richard C. Koo On Secondary Deflations and Balance Sheet Recessions

The concept of a ‘secondary deflation’ was developed in the 1930s by the German economist Wilhelm Röpke, who saw it as something different from a normal depression. While a primary deflation is a necessary reaction to the inflation from a boom period, a secondary deflation is independent and economically purposeless. Röpke argued that secondary depressions occurred in the US, Germany, France and Switzerland during the 1930s, but was vague on what made them follow primary depressions. Recently, the Taiwanese–American economist Richard C. Koo has claimed to have discovered the ‘Holy Grail of macroeconomics’, that is, what made the Great Depression so deep and long. During the Great Depression, the bursting of the asset price bubble resulted in private sectors having more debt than assets; as they shifted from maximising profits to minimising debt, the consequent debt deflation shrank the economy. According to Koo, Western economies today are suffering from a similar ‘balance sheet recession’. Strengthened by the notion of a balance sheet recession, Röpke's long‐lost insights might advance our understanding of the business cycle in general and the present crisis in the US and the Eurozone in particular.     

中国通货紧缩的成因分析

西方经济学家以“债务一通货紧缩”理论、货币紧结论、金本位制论、联系汇率论、结构论等阐述通货紧缩的起因。从其本质来看，通货紧缩是经济运行过程中的必然产物；从触因来看，通货紧缩是宏观调控与经济运行失调的产物。我国的通货紧缩有其特定原因。长期盲目投资、低水平重复建设造成的生产能力大量过剩，是通货紧缩发生的产业结构原因；1994年以来货币供应量增幅和货币流动速度的下降，是通货紧缩发生的货币原因；政策调整滞后及政策效应相互抵消，是通货紧缩继续发展的政策原因；经济体制转轨过渡，是通货紧缩发生的制度原因；世界范围的通货紧缩趋势是我国通货紧缩发生的国际背景；国有企业经济效益下滑、国民经济出现大规模的国有企业亏损是导致通货紧缩的微观原因。     

Can China Help Lower World Inflation?: A Panel Study

In this paper, the effect of China's imports on importing countries' inflation is examined. Using data from 1994 to 2003, it is argued that China's export surge is an important contributor to lowering inflation in importing countries. Using fixed and random effect models, we identify a statistically significant negative correlation between the share of a country's imports from China and its rate of inflation.     

通货膨胀与中国宏观经济政策的困境

2008年,中国经济再度经历了通货膨胀.通货膨胀成因复杂,属于一种混合型通货膨胀.在物价上涨的表象下面,隐藏着经济制度的缺陷和经济结构的根本性失衡.受制度本身和一些内在因素的影响,宏观经济政策面临困境.必须采取短期和长期措施,在治理通货膨胀的同时,尽快转变经济增长方式,完善基本经济制度.     

通货膨胀与中国宏观经济政策的困境

2008年，中国经济再度经历了通货膨胀。通货膨胀成因复杂，属于一种混合型通货膨胀。在物价上涨的袁象下面，隐藏着经济制度的缺陷和经济结构的根本性失衡。受制度本身和一些内在因素的影响，宏观经济政策面临困境。必须采取短期和长期措施，在治理通货膨胀的同时，尽快转变经济增长方式，完善基本经济制度。