商业银行流动性过剩问题的再认识

最近,学术界对商业银行流动性问题议论颇多,议论的焦点是银行的流动性过剩及由此引发的种种后果.本文基于既往研究中值得深思的四个问题,从商业银行超额储备构成出发对流动性过剩的内涵、判断标准及影响因素进行界定,以商业银行保持流动性成因的微观视角管窥我国商业银行流动性过剩问题.在此基础上,本文认为商业银行流动性过剩问题的解决与资本市场的发展并无必然的直接联系,并针对流动性过剩问题的不同形成原因提出了相应的几点看法.     

对城中村改造推动银行储蓄存款增长的意义的思考——以陕西省西安市为例

城中村改造关于改造资金的来源问题研究者们已经进行了大量的研究,目前比较可行的办法就是信托融资模式,接着就是城中村改造后农民拿到大量的赔偿款后的理财问题确实是很多银行关注的重点。本文从对西安市城中村改造的一些政策进行了分析,从而引出农民将得到巨额的赔偿,提出了西安市各大银行应该积极吸纳改造城中村农民的存款,这对推动银行储蓄存款的增长有着很大的意义。     

用效益弹性比较法优化矿藏开发的集约化程度

集约开发矿藏不仅应当紧跟永不停留的技术进步,还需要时时通过效益弹性比较法择优方案.流行的价格法和产值法忽略提取多种有用组分成本的无规则变化,利润法只讲微观效益,它们都不能提供最优解.效益弹性比较法能克服流行方法的这些缺陷,而且出于命题的整体性不为分解公共费用的难点所困扰,并能把环保举措有机地并入开发程序.     

Banking with nominal deposits and inside money

Bank runs in the literature take the form of withdrawals of demand deposits payable in real goods, which deplete a fixed reserve of goods in the banking system. That framework describes traditional bank runs based on currency withdrawals as occurred historically in the US and more recently in developing countries. However, in a modern banking system, large withdrawals typically take the form of electronic payments of inside money, with no analog of a depletion of a scarce reserve from the banking system. In a new framework of nominal demand deposits repayable in inside money, pure liquidity-driven bank runs do not occur. If there were excessive early withdrawals, nominal deposits would hedge the bank and flexible monetary prices in the goods market would limit real consumption. The maturity mismatch of short term liabilities and long term assets is not sufficient for multiple equilibria bank runs without other frictions. A key role of the bank is to ensure optimal real liquidity, which allows markets to optimally distribute consumption goods through the price mechanism.     

财政性存款对基础货币影响研究--基于中央银行资产负债表的实证分析

根据中央银行资产负债表,财政性存款是中央银行的负债,是基础货币的减项,因此财政性存款特别是国库现金对基础货币的投放或者回笼具有反向影响。本文对分税制改革和国库集中收付改革分别设置虚拟变量,实证分析了财政性存款对基础货币的影响关系。实证结果表明,1994年前财政性存款对基础货币影响较小,分税制后影响大幅提高。但2001年国库集中收付制度改革后,虽然规范了财政资金管理、加快资金流动,但另一方面也带来人行国库与财政国库并存的问题,使得财政性存款对基础货币的“吸储”作用减小。本文认为：人民银行经理国库体制和财政性存款缴存制度共同作用下,财政性存款发挥基础货币回笼作用;财政体制变化等长期制度性因素在财政性存款对基础货币影响中发挥更为明显的作用;财政性存款是非常敏感的指示器,对现行货币政策具有重要意义。     

HIV/AIDS AND BANKING STABILITY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We argue that the recent large increase in deposits’ turnover in many developing countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence is associated with the spread of the disease. The point is that the need to pay for individual treatments force large‐scale withdrawals of households’ deposits, and that those large withdrawals put the banking industry at risk. In a standard demand‐deposit model where the HIV/AIDS prevalence among depositors is random, we show that (1) the probability of a large‐scale banking failure without a bank run increases as the odds of any prevalence level increases, and (2) it is always optimal to deposit, and thus to accept the risk of banking failure, to maintain long‐term investments in place.     

The relative influence of price and non-price factors on short-term retail deposit quantities?

This study explores how price and non-price factors influence change in the quantity of short-term retail deposits held by depository institutions. The analysis is undertaken for a sample of UK building societies over 23 years using a disaggregated data set with a two-stage econometric procedure involving system estimators in a panel framework using seemingly unrelated regression, generalised method of moments and an ordinary least-squares fixed effects estimators to control for contemporaneous correlation and endogeneity concerns. Price factors examined include the policy or base rate and retail deposit interest rates set by individual building societies and non-price factors including the branch network and the number of deposit accounts offered by individual building societies. The cost of funds, one non-price factor and occurrence of mergers are consistently significant influences of retail deposit quantities. We conclude risk assessment of retail deposit quantity and monetary policy transmission would benefit from considering both price and non-price factors, rather than only price factors.     

The Federal Reserve's Tools for Policy Normalization in a Preferred Habitat Model of Financial Markets

We develop a model to analyze monetary policy implementation with multiple Federal Reserve liabilities and superabundant reserves. The analysis demonstrates the Federal Reserve's tools including interest on excess reserves (IOER), overnight reverse repurchase agreements (ON RRP), and term deposits should allow the Federal Reserve to raise the short‐term interest rates to any desired level. We find the contribution of each the increase in the IOER and ON RRP offering rates in firming money market rates suggested by the data during the December 2015 policy tightening event is remarkably similar to the effect of each tool implied by the calibrated model.     

超增长的中国储蓄率研究

我国储蓄的持续超常增长已经引起政府当局及学者们的广泛关注。本文通过对我国影响储蓄率的因素进行分析,从一个侧面对这一异常现象产生进行了阐述。最后针对分析结果,提出了若干政策建议。     

国库视角下的财政性存款问题研究

本文对我国财政性存款概念及其缴存管理的政策发展阶段进行了归纳,并对金融机构漏缴少缴财政性存款问题及其原因进行了分析,进而对现行财政性存款管理的风险进行探讨,同时,提出改进我国财政性存款缴存管理的途径。