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排序方式: 共有790条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Simón Sosvilla-Rivero 《Applied economics》2018,50(42):4540-4555
Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate. 相似文献
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本文对韩国国内行政区域如市郡区等小地区的失业统计共同差额比进行推定的方法有联合推定量,Woolf推定量和Mantel-Haenszel推定量等。对这个推定量的可信度是通过偏差和平均平方误差的概念来进行比较的。从对京畿地区经济活动人口调查情况看,这个地区内的24个市郡单位行政自治地区的男、女失业率差额比的偏差及平均平方误差是通过本次研究提出的推定程序来推定的。这些推定数的稳定性和效率性可以通过相对偏差和相对平均误差平方根来评价。Woolf推定量或Mantel-Haenszel推定量比联合推定量更为稳定,从其效率性来看三者很相似。 相似文献
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J. Kol 《De Economist》2004,152(2):273-296
Jan Tinbergen's scientific writings cover six main areas of research. His articles in De Economist represent these areas; in some cases the contributions to De Economist were of a pioneering nature (business cycles, economic models, economic integration); in others De Economist was the first or even single outlet for Tinbergen's work. This article provides an overview of these contributions. The wide scope of Tinbergen's areas of research goes together with a unity in approach, the characteristics of which are: policy relevance, quantification and measurement, balance in analysis and presentation, and learning from experience. Tinbergen's articles in De Economist bear witness to this approach which at the time also met with scepticism and resistance as this overview shows. According to Houthakker, Tinbergen's main contribution may be that, amidst the pleas of interest groups and the slogans of the laity, an attempt is made that the voice of the professional economic researcher be heard. Tinbergen's work still sets an agenda for both economic research and policy making. 相似文献
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王竹林 《西安财经学院学报》2004,17(1):31-34
发展小城镇是农村城市化的必然选择,而小城镇的发展程度和水平,则依赖于农业产业化、农村工业化、农业人口知识化及城市化的互动作用。为了使农村城镇化有质的飞跃,必须以工业理念管理现代农业,以园区管理理念整合农村工业,以育人理念提高人口素质,以城市管理理念提升城镇水平。 相似文献
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奥肯定律表明与正常的(或潜在的或趋势的)增长率相比,高产出增长伴随着失业率的降低,低产出增长伴随着失业率的上升.作为一种经验规律,奥肯定律在西方很多国家的实践中得到了良好的验证.本文根据1978年以来中国的宏观经济统计数据进行模型回归检验,结果显示我国城镇登记失业率的变化与实际产出增长率之间不存在典型的奥肯规律.由于我国公开的失业率并不能反映真实的市场失业率,为此用就业量代替失业率,建立扩大的奥肯模型,分别对我国第一、二和三产业的就业增长与经济增长的数量关系进行估计.实证的结果显示我国第二、三产业的就业增长与产出增长和物价上涨均为正相关;而我国农业的就业增长与产出增长存在负相关. 相似文献
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This paper examines the effect of labor unemployment risk on firm risk. Using unemployment insurance benefits as a proxy for unemployment risk, we find an economically significant positive relation between unemployment risk and firm risk. This positive relation is more pronounced for firms that are more labor-intensive, have a higher layoff propensity and are more financially constrained. While existing literature that employs corporate policy measures such as debt and cash holdings suggests an opposite relationship, our paper presents evidence that the effects stemming from earnings management, earnings quality and reporting quality appear to dominate. 相似文献
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中国现行失业保障面临重重困境,迫切要求探索失业保障的制度创新。针对实践中出现的新型失业保障模式,对政府—社会合作型失业保障体系的构建进行初步探讨,对于建立以政府主导的失业保险为基础,非营利组织失业救助为补充,政府、企业和非营利组织合作促进再就业,以社区作为政府—社会合作的结合部的失业保障体系具有一定的现实意义。 相似文献
10.
Amarakoon Bandara 《Applied economics》2019,51(8):762-780
In this paper, we investigate the factors that influence youth labour market expectations and outcomes. We also perform a job matching exercise to understand youth labour market dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our results show that youth education is an influential factor of youth employment expectations and employment, ceteris paribus. Higher educational attainments have a great impact on expecting and securing better jobs, particularly in the technical and professional fields. Youth with low educational attainments, particularly primary education and lower, have a higher tendency to expect to be employed in occupations with low job complexity. Our results indicate a severe job-skill mismatch in all occupational categories, both before and after the youth’s transition into the labour market. Using education as the only selection criterion, we found that less than 10 per cent of employment expectations match with skills required while 55 per cent and 34 per cent are under or over-educated for the jobs expected, respectively. Over and under education is a notable feature in youth labour markets in Sub-Saharan Africa. About 47 per cent of employed youth in the sample are overqualified for their respective jobs while 28 per cent are under qualified. 相似文献