老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

碳排放交易制度的节能减排路径：效率提升还是结构转型？——来自中国省级数据的准自然实验

以中国2013年以来实行的碳排放交易试点政策作为准自然实验事件，基于2000-2017年中国30个省市的面板数据，运用双重差分法实证检验碳排放交易制度的节能减排效应及影响机制。研究发现，碳排放交易制度有利于实现中国经济“节能”与“减排”的双重目标，并通过了一系列稳健性检验；作用机制检验表明，能源效率提升和能源结构转型都是碳排放交易制度实现节能减排目标的重要路径；能源效率提升在碳排放交易制度实现“节能”和“减排”中分别发挥了10.19%和5.93%的作用，而能源结构转型分别发挥了48.87%和52.95%的作用。这意味着中国碳排放交易制度实现节能减排的主要动力来自能源结构转型，而非能源效率提升。能源结构转型涉及问题更加宏观和深层，这为中国加快推进节能减排进程，特别是完成2030年碳达峰和2060年碳中和的国际承诺提供政策启示。     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

对我国风险投资组织模式选择的研究

有限合伙制以其特有的产权和责任安排而被认为是最符合风险投资行业特点和要求的组织形式。我国在对建立有限合伙制风险投资企业的认识上存在一定的分歧，本认为随着我国经济的不断向前发展，相关法律法规的完善，有限合伙制必然会成为我国风险投资企业组织模式的首选。     

小学生体型特征及其随年龄变化规律

该文对嘉兴市6个年级共600个小学生的人体测量数据，进行了统计分析，探讨了男女小学生体型随年龄变化的规律。     

Economic Implications of Alternative Allocation Schemes for Emission Allowances*

For reasons of political feasibility, emission trading systems may have to rely on free initial allocation of emission allowances in order to ameliorate adverse production and employment effects in dirty industries. Against the background of an emerging European‐wide emission trading system, we examine the trade‐off between such compensation and economic efficiency under output‐based and emissions‐based allocation rules. We show that the emissions‐based allocation rule is more costly than the output‐based rule in terms of maintaining output and employment in energy‐intensive industries. When the international allowance price increases, the inferiority of emissions‐based allocation vis‐à‐vis output‐based allocation becomes more pronounced, as emission subsidies drastically restrict efficiency gains from international trade in emission allowances.     

Political Measures for Strategic Environmental Policy with External Effects

This paper investigates an environmental policy designed to reduce the emission of pollutants under uncertainty, with the agent problem as an optimal stopping problem. We first analyze the two cases in which there are one agent and two competing agents by following Ohyama and Tsujimura (2005). When we consider a model of strategic agents, we need to analyze the external economic effect that is peculiar to an agent’s environmental policy implementation. Then, to improve and resolve these external effects, we examine three alternative political measures, comprising an environmental subsidy, an environmental tax and an emission trading system. The results of the analysis indicate that the environmental subsidy and environmental tax promote environmental policy. However, they do not create an incentive to be the leader. On the other hand, an emissions trading system not only promotes environmental policy but also creates an incentive for leadership.This paper was previously circulated under the title “Political Measures for Strategic Environmental Policy with Induced Effects”. The authors would like to thank Masaaki Kijima for helpful comments. The authors would also like to thank Alistair Munro and two anonymous referees providing detailed comments and suggestions. This research was partially supported by Daiwa Securities Group Inc. The second-named author was partially supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B) (2), 16310118.     

Static and dynamic efficiency of pollution control strategies

A great deal of the economic literature on pollution control strategies concentrates on the efficiency of environmental policy instruments. Most analytical studies in this field show that market instruments are more efficient with respect to the cost of pollution abatement of a given number of polluters than non-market instruments. According to several analytical studies, market instruments should also be more efficient with respect to innovation in pollution abatement equipment than non-market instruments. In the empirical literature a great number of case studies exist with estimations of the savings of abatement costs of market instruments in a situation without technological progress. Empirical studies about the impact of environmental policy market instruments on the abatement costs in situations with technological progress are lacking.The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap. The paper deals with an empirical estimation of abatement costs for the emission of SO₂ of coal-fired electricity units in the Netherlands from 1985 to 2000. First, the working of market instruments and non-market instruments (the existing environmental policy of the Dutch government) is simulated in a static situation. Second, we analyse the learning effects of flue gas desulphurization. The efficiency advantage of market instruments turns out to be larger in a situation of technological progress than in a static situation.     

Analysis of cointegrated VARMA processes

VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) processes are proposed for modelling cointegrated variables. For this purpose the echelon form is combined with the error correction form. Procedures for estimating the Kronecker indices which characterize the echelon form and for specifying the cointegration rank are discussed. The asymptotic distribution of the coefficient estimators is given. An example based o n US macroeconomic data illustrates the procedure and demonstrates its feasibility in practice.     

城市地标设计与城市旅游发展

城市地标与城市旅游具有密切的关系,城市地标设计是城市旅游业发展的重要环节.城市地标形态具有多元性,应当根据地域特征采取相应的方法进行城市地标设计.