Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value.     

Stability, Asymmetry and Seasonality of Fund Performance: An Analysis of Australian Multi‐sector Managed Funds

Using a sample of Australian Multi-sector trusts we examine selectivity and market timing performance and extend the analysis to include the relatively new measure of volatility timing. This is of particular relevance to our data set, as high levels of volatility persistence are prevalent in Australia. In addition we consider the stability, asymmetry and seasonality of the various performance and risk measures. A survivorship adjustment procedure is also employed in order to assess the impact of survivorship on selectivity, market timing and volatility timing performance.     

存款保险制度的产生发展及其理论基础

本文通过对存款保险制度在国际上产生发展的背景分析 ,发现该制度在实践中有内在的必然性 ,在理论上有坚实的基础 ,银行的存在是金融效率所在 ,尽管挤兑可能会发生甚至迅速演化为银行危机 ,但不能否定银行的客观必要性。相反 ,需要防止挤兑和银行危机发生的制度安排 ,其中没有任何一种安排能够取代存款保险制度。中国现在比以往任何时候都需要采纳这一制度以适应市场化金融改革开放的需要 ,当然相应的技术问题仍需要解决。     

The Recognition and Timing of Deferred Tax Liabilities

Abstract:   This paper examines the characteristics of firms that account for deferred tax liabilities related to government investment grants under an extended adoption timing period. Not only the recognition but also the timing decision is associated with changes in future performance and changes in the debt structure. Recognisers outperform non‐recognisers in the future, while early recognition is related to post recognition performance but only for those firms that currently perform well. Changes in the balance sheet structure are also related to both decisions. Firms with recent increases in the debt level tend to postpone recognition, while currently well‐performing firms that increase their future debt level are less likely to recognise deferred taxes.     

风险投资项目退出的时机与方式选择研究

文章对影响风险投资项目退出时机选择的微观因素和风险投资项目退出方式及其必要条件进行了深入分析,文章认为,风险投资项目退出的时机与方式选择具有动态性和一体性特点,遵循风险资本增值最大化的一般性原则,选择适宜的退出时机与方式对风险投资项目实现投资收益或锁定投资损失有着重要的意义。     

中国户口制度改革的理论分析

随着户籍制度改革的深化 ,从完全禁止户口迁移到数量限制政策 ,再到征收费用政策和放开小城镇入户限制的逐步放松户籍管制政策 ,对经济发展的贡献日益增加 ,损害逐渐减轻。我国放开小城镇户籍限制的改革放活了地方经济。我国户籍制度改革进程是由经济内生决定的 ,城市经济发展的需要推进着户籍制度的改革进程。那些放开户籍限制的城市也没有出现人们担心的问题。放开户籍限制不会构成对城市就业、住房、治安、交通的压力 ,反而创造了发展的契机。     

遗产动机与公共养老保险制度的效应分析

本文运用内生增长模型与世代重叠模型的结合分析，试图从理论上来探讨在考虑人们遗产动机的情况下，公共养老保险制度对于经济增长率和社会福利（social welfare）所产生的效应。在分析中，基金积累式养老保险制度的中立性的特征再次得以确认；同时，我们还发现在一定条件下，现收现付方式养老保险制度也可能保持中立性，即当具有遗产动机的个人对于今后养老保险制度拥有完全信息时，个人会将足够的遗产留与后代，使得后代在养老保险费上的负担与获取的遗产相抵，从而使得各代人消费路径以及资本积累路径不发生变化，因此，养老保险制度的建立也不会对经济增长率和社会福利水平产生影响。     

现阶段我国汇率政策在金融政策组合中的效应分析

尽管对单一宏观政策的研究已经较为深入了，但对两种宏观政策的组合效应的研究还较为缺乏。本文正是从这一角度出发，分析了当前我国实行的积极的货币政策和稳定的汇率政策组合的正负效应。并且指出，尽管这种组合对由于货币供给的内生性造成的货币政策效率低下具有弥补作用，但是却加剧了外部经济的失衡，并且，这种失衡由于“溢出效应”而会影响到内部经济均衡。从而出现了诸如储备机会成本增高、基础货币供应控制的难度加大、准备金制度改革难度加大等矛盾。因此，不应该将牺牲外部均衡来保全内部均衡的做法作为其长期政策取向。     

Minimum Quality Standards under Asymmetric Duopoly with Endogenous Quality Ordering: A Note

In this note, we revisit minimum quality standards (MQS) under a vertically differentiated duopoly. We generalize the model in Ronnen (1991) and Valletti (2000) by introducing asymmetry into the fixed cost of quality improvement and by explicitly taking into account the endogeneity of quality ordering. In the generalized model, we show that the results derived by Ronnen (1991) and Valletti (2000) are largely robust.