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《International Journal of Forecasting》2019,35(4):1669-1678
We estimate a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) for the UK economy and assess its performance in forecasting GDP growth and CPI inflation in real time relative to forecasts from COMPASS, the Bank of England’s DSGE model, and other benchmarks. We find that the BVAR outperformed COMPASS when forecasting both GDP and its expenditure components. In contrast, their performances when forecasting CPI were similar. We also find that the BVAR density forecasts outperformed those of COMPASS, despite under-predicting inflation at most forecast horizons. Both models over-predicted GDP growth at all forecast horizons, but the issue was less pronounced in the BVAR. The BVAR’s point and density forecast performances are also comparable to those of a Bank of England in-house statistical suite for both GDP and CPI inflation, as well as to the official Inflation Report projections. Our results are broadly consistent with the findings of similar studies for other advanced economies. 相似文献
3.
Jacek Liwiski 《Economics of Transition》2019,27(2):409-423
Over 200,000 European students study abroad under the Erasmus programme. It appears that studying abroad may impart skills which are helpful for professional careers after graduation. Approximately, 54% of European students report that participation in the Erasmus exchange programme helped them to obtain a first job; however, interestingly, those from Central and Eastern European countries report it much more often—in 73% of cases. The aim of this paper is to find out whether studying abroad enhances the employability of higher education graduates in Poland. Using the propensity score matching method and data from a nationwide tracer survey of Polish graduates, we find that Polish students who completed at least one semester of their studies abroad do not benefit in terms of a higher employment rate after graduation. 相似文献
4.
Gunther Tichy 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2004,71(4):341-363
It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists. 相似文献
5.
This paper revisits the relationship between a country’s openness and its per capita income. Building on Frankel and Romer,
it argues that a dynamic econometric specification similar to the ones used in empirical growth studies better fits the theoretical
literature and also resolves some otherwise unresolved inconsistencies. The preferred econometric method is Blundell and Bond’s
system-GMM estimator, which allows dealing with measurement error, weak instruments, and time-invariant country-specific effects.
The findings confirm the existence of a strong effect of trade on income but fail to find evidence for trade as an independent
factor of divergence.
JEL no. F43, O40 相似文献
6.
We use line integral theory to lay out in a more general theoretical framework the conditions under which it is possible to measure with market data the welfare effects of a change in a nonmarket good. We present in detail a numerical method of measuring the value of nonmarket goods using market data, under either weak neutrality or weak complementarity. Our numerical method is more flexible than the existing analytical method because it can be used with any well-behaved Marshallian demand function, and can be used even when the willig condition does not hold. 相似文献
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This article investigates the extent to which options on theAustralian Stock Price Index can be explained by parametricand nonparametric option pricing techniques. In particular,comparisons are made of out-of-sample option pricing performanceand hedging performance. The dataset differs from many of thoseused previously in the empirical options pricing literaturein that it consists of American options. In addition, a broaderspectrum of techniques are considered: a spline-based nonparametrictechnique is considered in addition to the standard kernel techniques,while the performance of a Heston stochastic volatility modelis also considered. Although some evidence is found of superiorperformance by nonparametric techniques for in-sample pricing,the parametric methods exhibit a markedly better ability toexplain future prices and show superior hedging performance. 相似文献
9.
We re‐examine the benefits of using a broader set of research methods to address key questions associated with the resource‐based view (RBV) of the firm. In responding to Levitas and Chi, we consider how research inside organizations can complement and augment research relying on secondary data. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
刘向红 《广东农工商职业技术学院学报》2005,(4)
编辑有法,这是不容质疑的。编辑方法是编辑学理论的一个重要研究范畴。然而编辑学现状表明,我们对编辑方法论的研究缺乏应有的重视。编辑方法是反映编辑工作全过程中核心内容的方法。包括选题方法、组稿方法、审稿方法、加工方法和校对方法。在当今信息时代,编辑应将计算机技术的方法纳入到编辑方法之中。要有效实施方法还应遵循一些编辑方法的原则。 相似文献