INTERNATIONAL RESERVE MANAGEMENT: A DRIFT‐SWITCHING REFLECTED JUMP‐DIFFUSION MODEL

We study the cost of shocks, that is, jump risk, with respect to reserve management when the reserve process is formulated as a drift‐switching jump diffusion with a reflecting barrier at 0. Inspired by the Brownian drift switching model, our model results in a more realistic dynamic behavior of international reserves than the buffer stock model. The new model can capture both the jump behavior in reserve dynamics and the leptokurtic feature of the increment distribution which has a higher peak and two asymmetric heavier tails than the normal distribution. Through the selection of an initial distribution that reflects certain steady state behaviors, the reserve process becomes a regenerative process. This selection enables us to derive a closed‐form expression for the total expected discounted cost of managing reserves, thus helping us to numerically find management strategies that minimize costs. The numerical results show that shocks at the reserve level have a significant effect on reserve management strategies and that model misspecification can result in nonnegligible additional costs.     

高等职业教育应担负起创新型人才培养的重任

培养创新型人才是高等职业教育的神圣使命,在创新型人才培养中,必须做好转变观念齐抓共育,创造条件加强实践,建立机制引导创新,以点带面不断完善,勇于探索不断创新。     

Evolutionary Stability in the Investment-Opportunism-Retaliation Game

Can economically efficient outcomes be obtained and sustained in the absence of externally enforced property rights? We study the evolutionary properties of a game that exhibits two well-defined Nash equilibria: one generates an inefficient outcome while the other set generates an efficient outcome supported by the potential for retaliation. Although standard forward-looking refinements eliminate the efficient equilibrium, neither equilibrium type satisfies strict evolutionary stability criteria. However, both types of equilibrium define strategies that are neutrally stable, which makes them vulnerable to drift in dynamic environments. We conduct computer simulation experiments in which players learn adaptively via a tournament selection mechanism called sophisticated experimentation. Our simulations demonstrate that while the system spends a disproportionately high proportion of time in the inefficient equilibrium set, the efficient equilibrium is pervasive as the system drifts back and forth between the equilibrium sets, never settling on one or the other.     

Wage drift and minimum contractual wage: Theoretical interrelationship and empirical evidence for Italy

A two-stage wage setting process whose outcomes are identified in the wage drift, at the local level, and in the tariff wage, at the central level, is analyzed. The impact of insider and outsider factors in each stage of the bargaining process is investigated both theoretically and empirically for Italy. In the light of its extreme policy relevance, particular attention is devoted to the analysis of the interrelationships between the wage drift and the tariff wage. Panel data estimation carried out on a sample of 105 Italian three-digit industries and 41 contract groups, reveals that: (1) Insider factors (productivity, inventories and the insider workers power) are important determinants of the wage drift while outsider factors (aggregate wage and unemployment) have a prominent role in determining the tariff wage. (2) Wage drift and tariff wage are closely interrelated.     

经营环境的多变与管理理念的转变

从工业时代到信息时代、从体力劳动到智力劳动、从人力资源到经营伙伴、从金融资本到智力资本；从有限市场到全球化、从稳定到变化；从官僚化到民主化、从命令到定向、从孤立到集体活动、从专业化到多样化；从侧重产品和服务到客户取向等经营环境的转型对管理提出了挑战。环境的挑战需要管理理念进行根本转变，包括：一种新的用人哲学，一种新的参与性和民主化的企业文化，激励工具和个人成功的融合，建立在员工需要上的管理政策和实践；与公司目标更紧密的联系，子系统结构对职能化部门的取代，决策权向中层管理者的转移；客户服务取向和价值增加的侧重；企业收缩战略和敏捷化制造；知识管理和智力资本创造的凸现；以及未雨绸缪等。     

一类企业物流成本核算的M-A模型

本文在分析和比较任务成本(Mission Costing)与作业成本(Activity-Based Costing)的前提下,将任务成本与作业成本结合起来构建了企业物流成本核算的M-A模型框架.在这个模型框架内,系统地阐述了企业物流成本核算的涵括范围、数据收集来源以及相关物流成本的分配架构等.     

R&D Progress, stock price volatility, and post-announcement drift: An empirical investigation into biotech firms

I investigate the effects of R&D progress on the dynamics of stock price volatility and the post announcement drift to provide insights into whether or not and how capital markets react to corporate R&D progress in the context of the biotech industry. I find both stock price volatility and the post announcement drift decrease in R&D progress. More importantly, the decrease is proportional to the increase in the drug development success rate driven by R&D progress. Findings suggest that R&D progress conveys useful risk-relevant information, and plays an important role in explaining stock price volatility change and market anomalies.     

中小型侦察监视特种飞机系统的设计技术

分析了当前国内外典型中小型特种飞机的特点和应用方向，阐述了中小型特种飞机系统的技术发展趋势。通过分析典型的特种通用飞机的性能和平台构型特点，详细描述了基于典型中小型特种飞机平台的机载侦察监视应用系统的组成、原理、主要性能及技术难点，并结合实际工程应用，介绍了系统的应用成果。应用分析表明，基于中小型特种飞机平台的机载平台的应用系统有较大的应用范围和市场前景。     

Conditional Persistence of Earnings Components and Accounting Anomalies

We suggest that the failure of investors to distinguish between an earnings component's autocorrelation coefficient (unconditional persistence) and the marginal contribution of that component's persistence to the persistence of earnings (conditional persistence) provides a partial explanation of post‐earnings‐announcement drift, post‐revenue‐announcement drift, and the accrual anomaly. When the conditional persistence of revenue surprises is high (low) relative to its unconditional persistence, both the post‐earnings‐announcement drift and the post‐revenue‐announcement drift are high (low), because investors’ under‐reaction to revenues and earnings is stronger when the persistence of revenue surprises is more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings surprises. Also, the mispricing of accruals decreases substantially when the conditional persistence of accruals is high relative to its unconditional persistence, because investors’ over‐reaction to accruals is mitigated when the persistence of accruals is indeed more strongly associated with the persistence of earnings. Our findings also suggest that financial analysts’ failure to distinguish between unconditional and conditional persistence of revenues and accruals results in more biased revenue and earnings predictions.     

Strategic Drift and Strategic Crisis Management of Organization

The research reports how the choice of the organization behavior--strategic drift can lead to strategic crisis as a form of manifestation of a deepening organizational crisis. The research questions whose solution is sought are connected with the relation of strategic drift--strategic crisis--strategic crisis management, in terms of whether the errors in the process of strategic management lead to organizational crises. The results of the historical analysis of the theoretical research and practice in this field show the interdependence among these processes and the reasons for strategic crisis in support of the concept of strategic crisis management and its implementation in business. The study outlines the evolution of the theory of strategic drift, as well as opinions of various scientists on the types of crises, which are perceived as a uniform classification and universal interpretation of the term ＂strategic crisis＂. The organization＇s ＂strategic drift＂ leads to serious organizational crisis which first form that strategic crisis. Practice shows that the management of market leaders often leads to complacency, choosing strategy stability. Soon, as a result of aggressive strategies or implemented innovations of their competitors, they lose their competitive position.