汇率波动模型与人民币汇率调整新趋势

文章对四种汇率波动模型进行简要介绍与说明,指出中国渐进式的改革和开放决定了入世后人民币汇率的制度调整也应是渐进式的,现阶段人民币汇率制度的选择应实行目标区汇率制。     

国有商业银行资本充足率探析

资本充足率是《巴塞尔协议》的核心内容,是全球银行共同遵守的风险管理标准。然而我国的国有商业银行的资本充足率没有达到规定的标准,影响了这些银行在国际上的评级和融资能力,因此这篇文章的写作目的在于探索国有商业银行提高资本充足率的途径,以提高国有商业银行抗风险的能力,保障整个国家的金融安全。     

Farming systems and Conservation Agriculture: Technology,structures and agency in Malawi

Conservation Agriculture (CA) is advocated as an agricultural innovation that will improve smallholder famer resilience to future climate change. Under the conditions presented by the El Niño event of 2015/16, the implementation of CA was examined in southern Malawi at household, district and national institutional levels. Agricultural system constraints experienced by farming households are identified, and in response the technologies, structures and agency associated with CA are evaluated. The most significant constraints were linked to household health, with associated labour and monetary impacts, in addition to the availability of external inputs of fertiliser and improved seed varieties. Our findings show that such constraints are not adequately addressed through current agricultural system support structures, with the institutions surrounding CA (in both Government extension services and NGO agricultural projects) focusing attention predominantly at field level practice, rather than on broader system constraints such as education and health support systems. Limited capacity within local institutions undermines long term efforts to implement new technologies such as CA. It is vitally important that the flexibility of farmers to adapt new technologies in a locally-appropriate manner is not closed down through national and institutional aims to build consensus around narrow technical definitions of a climate-smart technology such as CA. To enable farmers to fully utilise CA programmes, interventions must take a more holistic, cross-sectoral approach, understanding and adapting to address locally experienced constraints. Building capacity within households to adopt new agricultural practices is critical, and integrating healthcare support into agricultural policy is a vital step towards increasing smallholder resilience to future climate change.     

El Niño,La Niña,and world coffee price dynamics

Coffee is produced in equatorial and subequatorial regions of the world, which are also most affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO events have a tendency to amplify weather conditions such as droughts or excess precipitation in the affected regions, resulting in production shortage or excess supply, subsequently impacting agricultural commodity prices. In this research we assess effects of ENSO events on world coffee price dynamics using the monthly data between March 1989 and December 2010. We employ smooth transition autoregression framework to examine nonlinear dynamics of ENSO and coffee prices, and illustrate the results of this research using generalized impulse‐response functions. We find that ENSO events indeed have short‐term impacts on coffee prices. The research findings are of interest to coffee producers and intermediaries in the coffee markets as well as researchers in the fields of environmental and development economics.     

Interplay between ethanol and electric vehicles as low carbon mobility options for passengers in the municipality of São Paulo

The Brazilian cities as well as many of the large urban centers in the world continue to expand, increasing the demand for mobility and transport, while, at the same time, the same cities are investing in greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation to avoid climate change. Brazil's urbanization rate increased from 26% in 1940 to almost 70% in 1980. During this period, the Brazilian population tripled and the urban population multiplied by seven. In 2010, the transport sector in São Paulo accounted for 71% of the total emissions released by the energy sector. Ethanol has been considered a fuel with less greenhouse gas emissions, when compared with fossil fuels. However, ethanol production would have to double to meet the expected demand. Electric vehicles (EVs) market is expanding around the world, and is also an option to reduce the transport emissions, if powered by clean electricity. To assess whether the adoption of EVs might bring more benefits than the current ethanol, we develop prospective scenarios supported by the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) simulation tool, taking a bottom-up tank-to-wheel approach to consider the CO₂ emissions of car in São Paulo. The scenario considering a substitution of 25% of gasoline-powered cars by EV in 2030 showed a reduction in energy consumption and CO₂ emissions, around 15% and 26% respectively in that year in comparison with 2015. We discuss the interplay between ethanol and EV, also considering emission coefficients from life cycle analysis conducted in Brazil, and concluded EV will have higher positive impact on climate change mitigation than ethanol.     

The dynamics of tourism discourses and policy in Brazil

This article employs a Foucauldian inspired discourse analysis in order to unveil hidden aspects of the tourism development policy-making process in the UNESCO Espinhaço Range Biosphere Reserve, Brazil. It identifies the emergence of different representations of tourism development and demonstrates the process of social construction of sustainable tourism as an overarching discourse, which incorporates different—sometimes opposing—representations of tourism development to gather the support of people with different backgrounds and interests. However, this research demonstrates that this flexibility caused the sustainable tourism narrative to become a vague and imprecise discourse in the context of the case study, which has been used by the regional elites to conserve the status quo, but disguised as a critical alternative perspective.     

中国装备制造业发展的金融支持测度研究

装备制造业作为中国的重要产业之一,也是制造业的“母体”,近几年发展迅速,但与美国、 日本、德国等制造业强国相比还有很大差距。本文以中国装备制造业为研究对象,从政策性 金融支持、商业性金融支持、资本市场金融支持、风险投资金融支持4个角度出发,选取了2 005～2014年10年的全国装备制造业的面板数据,创新性地运用超越对数生产函数模型与岭 回归分析4项金融支持方式对装备制造业的支持程度,找出各种金融支持方式存在的问题, 为促进我国装备制造业的发展提供借鉴。     

Are there ENSO signals in the macroeconomy?

Whether ENSO has affected U.S. macroeconomic performance has been a matter of dispute. To address the issue we explore whether there has been any co-cyclicality of ENSO fluctuations and the rates of inflation and economic growth over the 1894-1999 timespan and, failing this, whether aperiodic ENSO shocks have had any impact on these variables. Neither co-cyclicality nor aperiodic shocks are discernible. While ENSO may briefly influence the performance of particular sectors of the economy in particular regions, as documented by the previous literature, such locally-important effects vanish into the noise surrounding macroeconomic trends in an economy as large and complex as that of the U.S.     

浅议高等旅游教育的专业技能操作课

高等旅游教育中，技能专业课具有很强的实践性。从高等旅游教育长期忽视技能操作课所产生的弊端入手，提出重视技能操作的观点，并就此展开论述，从六个方面提出解决的办法。     

关于中国城市饭店产业评价的思考

中国饭店业的发展加深着人们对饭店业的认识。单体饭店在走向成熟的同时，也需要整个饭店行业的成熟。文章提出衡量一个区域或城市饭店业是否成熟，有这样几个标准：拥有一批好的饭店群体，城市(地区)饭店的结构合理，有自身特色，有标志性的饭店，与城市特点相协调，有健全的行业法规，成熟的投资动机，成熟的职业经理人队伍，有成熟的市场和成熟的消费者，有成熟的饭店衍生业以及成熟的行业自律组织。