Estimation of the mean in ranked set sampling with non responses

The estimation of the population mean when ranked set sampling [rss] is used for selecting the sample and non responses [nr] are present, is studied. The nr stratum is sub sampled using simple random sampling with replacement. Two strategies are analyzed. One of them is based on the selection of a sub sample from the nr in each cycle. The other uses sub samples selected among the nr in each rank.  The accuracy of the proposed estimators is characterized by the corresponding expected variances. Simulations and real life data are used for analyzing the behavior of them. Acknowledgements: This paper was developed partially during the visit of the author to Université des Antilles et Gouyane. The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful suggestions of the referees and thanks the support of DAAD for visiting Humboldt University where a version of the paper version was made.     

基于“行为经济学理论”的旅游者行为分析

传统的旅游者行为分析方法,主要是进行定性的分析,将各个因素进行框架分析,而对旅游者行为的影响因素分析深度不够。借助行为经济学的理论和分析方法,从旅游者的心理活动角度入手,注重旅游者的心理变量分析,应用前景理论和心理账户分析旅游者行为,充分考虑了情境因素和体验因素,使得关于旅游者的行为分析更加细化和接近现实生活。     

Stop and Go Agricultural Policies with a Land Market

This article studies the design of farm policy in the presence of asymmetric information about farmers' productivity, a government objective to insure farmers a minimum "parity" income, an endogenous land rent, and diminishing returns on alternative (nonprogram crop) land uses. In this setting, acreage set asides are never part of an optimal farm policy, although compensated acreage limits are. When there are new farmer entrants who cannot be excluded from farm programs, optimal policy takes the form of a pure voluntary acreage limitation—or "buyout"—program in which high-cost producers participate and low-cost producers do not.     

基于集对分析法的地区大中型工业企业自主创新能力评价

为了对地区大中型工业企业自主创新能力进行全面、科学的评价,基于集对分析法,提出了地区大中型工业企业自主创新能力评价指标体系及综合评价模型。通过对我国30个省市区大中型工业企业的实证分析,表明该方法科学简便,具有很好的实用价值。     

当代大学生心理健康教育与素质培养

21世纪充满着机遇与挑战。作为21世纪的大学生必须具备良好的心理素质,心理素质是一个人整体素质的基础和归宿,它渗透在各种素质之中,影响和制约着各种素质的形成和发展。大学生在同龄群体中较优秀的群体,一般大学生是具有较高的智力水平和较多的专业知识和技能。但由于多方面的原因,特别是由于社会对大学生的要求和期望也较同龄群体为高,因此,大学生没有良好的心理素质同样是无法适应这个时代的。而良好心理素质的养成是靠教育来实现的,大学生心理健康问题越来越受到人们的关注。加强大学生的心理社健康教育,已成为高校亟待解决的问题。     

略论行政不作为违法的国家赔偿问题

实践中，行政不作为违法给公民、法人及其他组织的合法权益造成的损害程度不亚于行政作为违法，我国的《国家赔偿法》在此方面的规定存在不足。本文将从该法有关行政不作为违法的立法缺失入手，肯定国家对此应当承担赔偿责任，浅析此举的意义，最后分析了如何将《国家赔偿法》中行政不作为违法纳入国家赔偿机制。     

Forecasting recovery rates on non-performing loans with machine learning

We compare the performance of a wide set of regression techniques and machine-learning algorithms for predicting recovery rates on non-performing loans, using a private database from a European debt collection agency. We find that rule-based algorithms such as Cubist, boosted trees, and random forests perform significantly better than other approaches. In addition to loan contract specificities, predictors that refer to the bank recovery process — prior to the portfolio’s sale to a debt collector — are also shown to enhance forecasting performance. These variables, derived from the time series of contacts to defaulted clients and client reimbursements to the bank, help all algorithms better identify debtors with different repayment ability and/or commitment, and in general those with different recovery potential.     

On the non-emptiness of the Mas-Colell bargaining set

We introduce an extension of the Mas-Colell bargaining set and construct, by an elaboration on a voting paradox, a superadditive four-person non-transferable utility game whose extended bargaining set is empty. It is shown that this extension constitutes an upper hemicontinuous correspondence. We conclude that the Mas-Colell bargaining set of a non-levelled superadditive NTU game may be empty.     

“绿康城市”论

城市是人类聚集和生活的场所，随着人类的进化不 断发展。理想城市应当符合人类对美好生活的向往，既能满足 生态可持续的绿色发展需求，也能提供有益人类健康的适宜人 居环境。“绿康城市”论就是当今缓解“城市病”与“城市人 群病”的理想模式之一，而日本东京城市中心“大手町之森” 正是“绿康城市”论的实践先驱案例。基于人、自然和城市三 者之间的关系，追溯欧美、日本与中国理想城市的发展历程， 并对进行建设“绿康城市”实践时应坚持的原则与构成要素进 行了较为深入的探讨。     

Unexpected windfalls,education, and mental health: evidence from lottery winners in Germany

This paper investigates the causal impact of large unexpected windfalls on individual mental health, physical health, as well as health behaviors. I use a large individual-level panel data set of lottery winners from Germany between the years 2000 and 2011 and observe lottery winners before and after winning a large lottery prize. Mental health declines immediately after winning a large lottery prize for individuals with low education and low levels of financial literacy. While these individuals report being happier after winning the lottery, evidence from commonly used SF-12 measures of mental health indicates that winners with low education experience increased role limitations due to emotional problems, are more anxious, and have less energy after their win. The impact on various measures of mental health is highly robust, statistically significant, economically significant, and persists for up to two years after the win. Unexpected windfalls have no impact on the mental health of individuals with high education or high financial literacy. Winning the lottery has no impact on individuals’ health behaviors such as smoking or alcohol consumption, and it has no impact on doctor visits, hospital stays, or illness-related work absences regardless of education level.