Reducing CO2-Emissions Under Fiscal Retrenchment: A Multi-Cohort CGE-Model for Austria

The stabilization of budget deficit and budget debt ratios by fiscal retrenchment in order to fulfill the Maastricht criteria for the EMU is of central focus in most EU countries. At the same time the national policy dimension of acute environmental problems such as global warming has receded in the public eye. The environmental dimension nonetheless remains urgent, and a re-evaluation of the prospects of CO2-policy is needed against the background of fiscal retrenchment required by supranational obligations. We shall do this for the small, open, Austrian economy by constructing a dynamic multi-cohort CGE model enabling us to assess quantitatively the lifetime welfare impacts on the cohorts affected by three different options for using CO2-permit revenues. The distribution of welfare costs of (Toronto-) CO2-policy across cohorts significantly differs with use. This is explained by income, inheritance and price effects.     

养老保险缴费率、综合税率的调整路径和个人账户改革

建立反映我国城镇职工养老保险制度的交叠世代模型，并引入养老保险个人账户资产不实、国有资产收益划拨等因素，研究测算了养老保险缴费率和综合税率的最优调整路径：1.企业缴费率降低会使最优个人缴费率以1.51的替代弹性上升，调整后的总和缴费率依然会低于现行水平，可以真正降低缴费率水平，而当就业人口增长率降低时，最优替代弹性将会上升为1.66；2.个人缴费率的上升将会使最优税率以0.69的替代弹性下降，可以真正降低个人的税收负担，而当就业人口增长率降低时，替代弹性会下降为0.56；3.个人账户“名义化”改革后的最优总和缴费率会比改革前下降约1.5个百分点，最优税率会下降约2个百分点，说明个人账户的“名义化”改革有利于进一步降低税、费负担。     

The Distribution of Human Capital and Economic Growth

This paper analyzes the interaction between the distributionof human capital, technological progress, and economic growth.It argues that the composition of human capital is an importantfactor in the determination of the pattern of economic development.The study demonstrates that the evolutionary pattern of the humancapital distribution, the income distribution, and economic growthare determined simultaneously by the interplay between a local home environment externality and a global technologicalexternality. In early stages of development the local home environmentexternality is the dominating factor and hence the distributionof income becomes polarized; whereas in mature stages of developmentthe global technological externality dominates and the distributionof income ultimately contracts. Polarization, in early stagesof development may be a necessary ingredient for future economicgrowth. An economy that prematurely implements a policy designedto enhance equality may be trapped at a low stage of development.An underdeveloped economy, which values equality as well as prosperity,may confront a trade-off between equality in the short-run followedby equality and stagnation in the long-run, and inequality inthe short-run followed by equality and prosperity in the longrun.     

Informal Institutions, Consumption Custom, and Assumption of OLG Model—A Theoretical Analysis on Households’ Consumption Decisions in the Oriental Culture and Belief

Orthodox consumption theories have not incorporated the overlapping-generations (OLG) model and wealth-stock model, whereas this article explains households’ characters in consumption and savings in countries such as China and some other regions from the viewpoints of social convention, moral formation, ethics, and other informal institutions. The authors exploit and extend the OLG model, introduce the concepts of bequest, gift, and wealth preference to the economic agent’s utility function, then apply optimal conditions to analyzing the characters and problems concerning consumption and savings behavior. Furthermore, they deliberate on the effects of this analysis on government macroeconomic policies and suggest some relevant theoretical thinking and solutions. Translated from Economic Research Journal, 2005, 4 (in Chinese)     

Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for intra-generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter- and intra-generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened.     

世代交叠模型中的环境政策分析

本文在OLG模型中考虑资本生产带来的环境外部性,分析了市场竞争均衡结构下的资本动态学,并且在稳态时比较静态分析经济中各因素对经济和环境的影响,认为：严厉的环境政策有利于积累更多的资本,且有利于提高环境质量等。另外,政府在征收环境税,内在化环境外部性的同时,还需要征收消费税、一次性转移等内在化代际外部性以实现社会最优配置。     

A Dynamic Model of the Choice of Technology in Economic Development

In this overlapping-generations model, there is unemployment in the manufacturing sector. Manufacturing firms engage in oligopolistic competition and choose technologies to maximize profits. With capital as a fixed cost of production, increasing returns in the manufacturing sector exist. In the unique steady state, first, when individuals become more patient, the savings rate increases while the level of an individual’s income decreases. Second, an increase in population or percentage of income spent on manufactured goods does not change steady-state technology while the level of an individual’s income decreases. Third, an increase in the wage rate leads manufacturing firms to choose more advanced technologies and the steady-state capital stock increases. Finally, an increase in the level of subsidies to technology adoption does not change steady-state technology.