老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.     

Developing design principles for the digitalisation of purchasing and supply management

This paper develops an approach to evaluating designs for digitalisation interventions in purchasing and supply management (PSM), and identifies some fundamental design principles for such interventions. A set of advanced technologies for digitalisation and a theory-based set of seven value drivers for PSM are identified for the proposed grid to facilitate the design of applications and interventions for digitalising PSM. The grid relates the digital technologies to the PSM value drivers in a matrix-like manner, allowing the structured consideration of the space defined by these two dimensions. The proposed approach to the strategic evolution of digitalisation in PSM is tested and its utility is demonstrated in analyses of practitioner literature and multiple case-study-based perspectives on PSM digitalisation. Two fundamental design principles relating to the use of the grid, or to the filling of its space, are set out, thus the research provides new theoretical perspectives on the design of advanced forms of PSM digitalisation. The proposed grid may be used in application design, communicating current and future states of PSM digitalisation to stakeholders, and specifically in developing a future-oriented strategy with a digitalization element for the PSM function.     

Do pensions foster education? An empirical perspective

The paper examines the effect of population ageing on public education spending. On the one hand, ageing is expected to have a negative effect on education, as an increasing number of retirees results in ‘intergenerational conflict’ and, hence, the condemnation of education expenditure. On the other hand, ageing, in combination with pay-as-you-go pension systems, offers incentives for the working-age generation to invest in the public education of the young in order to ‘reap’ the benefits (that is, higher income tax/contributions) of their greater future productivity. Empirical evidence derived from the application of a fixed effects approach to panel data for OECD countries shows that the increasing share of elderly people has a non-linear effect on education spending. This indicates a certain degree of intergenerational conflict. Nevertheless, we find that future population ageing, which reinforces the mechanism linking public education and pensions, reflects positively on education expenditure. Furthermore, by disaggregating total education expenditure by educational levels, we observe that this effect is led by levels of non-compulsory education, probably as a reflection of the direct connection to labor productivity.     

江泽民对邓小平科技思想的继承与发展

以江泽民为核心的第三代中央领导集体在坚持和继承邓小平科学技术是第一生产力的思想的基础上,与建设有中国特色社会主义的伟大实践相结合,积极探索,勇于创新,极大丰富和发展了邓小平的科学思想.     

Estimating the Size of a Criminal Population from Police Records Using the Truncated Poisson Regression Model

The truncated Poisson regression model is used to arrive at point and interval estimates of the size of two offender populations, i.e. drunk drivers and persons who illegally possess firearms. The dependent capture–recapture variables are constructed from Dutch police records and are counts of individual arrests for both violations. The population size estimates are derived assuming that each count is a realization of a Poisson distribution, and that the Poisson parameters are related to covariates through the truncated Poisson regression model. These assumptions are discussed in detail, and the tenability of the second assumption is assessed by evaluating the marginal residuals and performing tests on overdispersion. For the firearms example, the second assumption seems to hold well, but for the drunk drivers example there is some overdispersion. It is concluded that the method is useful, provided it is used with care.     

安徽区域科技基础条件平台建设面临的问题与对策探讨

区域科技基础条件平台建设是一项复杂的系统工程,建设工作分为基础性工作和特色性工作的提法有助于地方政府分析条件平台建设的重点和难点.科技条件平台的核心功能之一是以科技资源共建共享的方式向社会提供共性技术尤其是产业共性技术.地方政府解决科技资源供给和需求之间的矛盾的关键在于对共性技术范围进行界定以及确定如何供给共性技术.     

人口老龄化背景下农村养老的困境及其路径选择——基于安徽省砀山县的实证分析

在中国农村人口老龄化程度快速发展背景下，中国农村养老面临的形势不容乐观。文章基于对安徽省砀山县农村养老状况的调查，在论述当前农村养老的基本现状以及存在的主要问题的基础上，提出了农村养老保障体系建设应遵循既要使农村社会的养老资源得到充分整合又要体现社会主义新农村建设的要求的基本思路。同时，积极推进农村养老保险制度创新、尽快编织农村最低生活保障“安全网”以及不断完善新型农村合作医疗制度是当前农村养老保障工作的重心。     

What Can Be Learned from DuPont and the Freon Ban: A Case Study

Between 1974 and 1988, executives of DuPont, the world's largest producer of CFCs, were confronted with emerging evidence that CFCs were destroying the stratospheric ozone layer. The difficulty that executives face in such cases is that scientific knowledge develops over time and does not necessarily proceed in a straight line toward true conclusions. At the beginning of a new field of research, there is much uncertainty and disagreement among the experts. The solution of the ozone problem required a remarkable cooperation among science, business, and international governments. After looking at the role of DuPont executives in this drama, and the difficulties facing any executive dealing with uncertain science, the paper turns to an evaluation of the field of Business Ethics to see what light it might throw on this and analogous problems. Finally, the paper offers specific suggestions in terms of principles in dealing with uncertain science, and concludes that the course of action that DuPont followed, including some mistakes, can serve as a model for analogous crises.     

基于CSSCI对浙江省图书馆学情报学研究现状的定量分析

利用CSSCI 2000-2002年来源数据，运用统计学方法，对浙江省图书馆学、情报学领域研究状况进行了定量分析，揭示了其个性特点和群体特征。     

中国人口资源困境的认识论根源探析--新发展观视野中的"天人关系"

从我国当前人与自然之间关系紧张、对立和冲突的事实出发 ,从新发展观层面审视当代人与自然的关系 ,揭示了当代中国自然资源有限性与人类需求发展无限性矛盾的严重程度及其对当代中国社会发展的制约 ,提出化解天人矛盾的理论路径。