Why will Trump lose the trade war?

ABSTRACT

The escalating U.S.–China trade conflicts have increasingly shadowed the outlook of the world economy. The Trump administration aims to achieve its strategic goals including reducing current account deficits, promoting the U.S. manufacturing sector, and curbing Chinese high-tech industries by waging the trade war against China. This paper argues that the current account deficits and the declining manufacturing sector in the U.S. are mainly driven by its internal structural factors, such as low saving rates, high labor costs, and rising service sector, rather than by the import competition from China. Moreover, the trade war further deteriorates the U.S. current account deficits and erode its comparative advantage, and it forces China to invest more in technological innovation and human capital, and thus promote its progress in high-tech industries. Thus, the U.S. will not be able to achieve its strategical goals and eventually lose the trade war.     

Lead markets, innovation differentials and growth

This article suggests that the specialization of countries in international trade is determined by the lead-lag market pattern of national markets. Many internationally successful innovations have been adopted first in one country while other countries initially either preferred other designs or an established product. A model for the international diffusion of innovations is presented in which nationally preferred innovation designs compete to become a globally dominant design. In this model, there are country-specific market attributes that increase the likelihood that the choice a country makes among alternative technologies is followed around the world. It is argued that technological knowledge gaps are not the origin of an international competitive advantage. Instead, a country gains a competitive advantage because a specific innovation design was adopted earlier than in any other country. This gives local firms a head start in producing, gathering marketing intelligence and securing the property rights of a globally successful innovation. In countries with lag market characteristics, domestic innovations are less likely to get adopted worldwide. Lag markets often switch from a domestic innovation design to a foreign innovation design, which increases imports. The lead-lag market explanation of trade specialization has implications for national policies. In this model domestic innovations do not always foster exports; idiosyncratic innovations induced by lag market contexts can hamper the export chances of local firms and in the end lead to an increase in imports. It is suggested that in order to increase exports, national policies have to distinguish between a domestic lead and lag market context in each industry. While in a lead market context, traditional policy instruments that enhance the rate of innovations are effective, in a lag market situation national follower strategies are more appropriate.     

Internal labour markets in the Australian banking industry: their nature prior to the Second World War and their recent decline

This paper uses evidence from late nineteenth-and early twentieth-century personnel records of two Australian banks to examine the nature of internal labour markets prior to the Second World War. It is argued that the industry possessed all the classic features of internal labour markets: limited ports of entry, internal promotion, long careers, and assignment of wages by well-defined rules. The paper then examines the reasons why banks adopted internal labour markets. Finally, the paper examines the recent decline of internal labour markets and examines the role of technological and social changes in this decline.     

我国液体生物质燃料开发问题与制度方法创新

当前,液体生物质燃料开发已经成为一个世界性实践问题.本文结合我国及云南实际,分析液体生物质燃料开发进程中的问题及其成因,进而从制度与方法方面提出我国液体生物质燃料开发的思路.     

Moore's Law and the Semiconductor Industry: A Vintage Model*

In this paper we develop a vintage model to gain a better understanding of the semiconductor industry and its role in recent U.S. productivity gains. Unlike previous work, in our model the observed price declines of individual chips are driven by the introduction of better vintages rather than by learning economies. Dominated chips, nonetheless, continue to be produced, for a time, due to sunk investments in chip‐specific production equipment. The model lends partial support to Jorgenson's hypothesis that an exogenous increase in Moore's Law could have generated the more rapid price declines, and faster productivity growth, seen after 1995.     

科学创新的人文动源系统

创新是当今世界发展的主题,科学创新是创新链条的初环,研究科学创新的动力系统成为一种必然.科学创新的人文内涵表现在各种人文要素对其影响上,这些结构要素的系统动力学效应成为科学创新的动力源泉.这些人文要素大体包括哲学、宗教、政治制度、法律、社会道德、文学和艺术等.它们主要从诱发基本观念、规范、情感三个角度对科学创新产生影响.     

强化政府引导服务功能 提高企业整体创新能力

怀化是一个欠发达的山区,要发展、壮大民营经济,提升民营科技企业整体创新能力,必须注重发挥科技部门职能作用,强化政府引导服务功能。     

实现企业高成长的价值创新利基、途径及风险

作为一种新的战略逻辑,价值创新逻辑已经在一些高成长企业的战略实践中显示出巨大效力。价值创新的利基和途径依企业的类别而异。本文将以企业价值链及其多重联系为切入点,提出中间投入品生产型企业实现高成长的价值创新利基和途径,并对价值创新的风险进行了初步的探讨。     

转型与经济信息生产方式的演化创新

一定制度下的经济信息生产方式是决定其资源配置效率的重要基础。从制度或资源配置方式的转型角度,分析了经济信息生产方式与一定制度下资源配置的效率关系;指出与传统自由市场经济相对应的现行的会计、统计理论方法及其制度属于经济信息个体性生产方式,不适应以混合经济为特征的现代市场经济对经济信息的需求;最后以现代市场经济的混合经济特征为基点,从市场经济活动的广泛联系性、经济信息的公共物品性和满足社会需求出发,提出了建立经济信息社会化生产方式与制度模式的构想。     

Static and dynamic efficiency of pollution control strategies

A great deal of the economic literature on pollution control strategies concentrates on the efficiency of environmental policy instruments. Most analytical studies in this field show that market instruments are more efficient with respect to the cost of pollution abatement of a given number of polluters than non-market instruments. According to several analytical studies, market instruments should also be more efficient with respect to innovation in pollution abatement equipment than non-market instruments. In the empirical literature a great number of case studies exist with estimations of the savings of abatement costs of market instruments in a situation without technological progress. Empirical studies about the impact of environmental policy market instruments on the abatement costs in situations with technological progress are lacking.The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap. The paper deals with an empirical estimation of abatement costs for the emission of SO₂ of coal-fired electricity units in the Netherlands from 1985 to 2000. First, the working of market instruments and non-market instruments (the existing environmental policy of the Dutch government) is simulated in a static situation. Second, we analyse the learning effects of flue gas desulphurization. The efficiency advantage of market instruments turns out to be larger in a situation of technological progress than in a static situation.