Change-point detection for expected shortfall in time series

Expected shortfall (ES) is a popular risk measure and plays an important role in risk and portfolio management. Recently, change-point detection of risk measures has been attracting much attention in finance. Based on the self-normalized CUSUM statistic in Fan, Glynn and Pelger (2018) and the Wild Binary Segmentation (WBS) algorithm in Fryzlewicz (2014), this paper proposes a variant WBS procedure to detect and estimate change points of ES in time series. The strengthened Schwarz information criterion is also introduced to determine the number of change points. Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to assess the finite-sample performance of our variant WBS procedure about ES in time series. An empirical application is given to illustrate the usefulness of our procedure.     

离心泵并联运行工况点的数值求解

建立了求解多台不同型号离心泵并联运行工况点的数学模型,给出了用数值计算中的“二分法”求解该模型的方法,并附有用Exce l计算的实例。     

新安江流域安徽省地区水环境状况分析

统计分析流域内点源污染、面源污染产生量与污染物入河量的调查监测数据,结果表明:安徽省辖新安江流域点源入河系数约为面源入河系数2~3倍,点源污染是流域内主要污染来源,但面源污染的作用不容忽视,尤其是总磷,有近2/3来自面源,相对省辖淮河、长江两流域来说,面源污染贡献率明显增大。指出流域污染防治必须综合考虑点、面源污染两个方面;在点源污染不太严重的情况下,对面源污染的治理必须引起足够的重视,才能取得实效。     

明渠水流泥沙运动水深平均及力矩方程的理论和验证

首次提出了水流泥沙运动水深平均及其力矩方程的概念 ,并从理论上推导出这套方程组。提出水流泥沙运动力矩方程的目的有两个 ,一是在不增加空间维数的情况下可以有效地恢复水流泥沙因子沿水深分布信息 ,克服目前普遍使用的水深平均方程过多地忽略沿水深分布信息的缺点 ;二是增强模型的模拟能力。针对这两个目的是否能真正得到体现 ,分别从理论和实验室资料两个方面对新推导的力矩方程进行了全面的检验。理论验证结果表明 ,一维的力矩方程除了能模拟水深平均的流速和含沙量 ,还能够较好地模拟水流泥沙因子沿水深分布信息 ,这充分说明了一维力矩方程的二维特性。为了检验力矩方程的模拟能力 ,特别选取了一些极端的水流泥沙运动实验 ,如清水冲刷、点源加沙和深槽回淤等。模拟结果表明 ,力矩方程对于这些极端的水沙运动具有较好的模拟能力     

糯扎渡水电站机组主保护方案

结合糯扎渡水电站大型机组的发电机结构、发电机中性点引出方式及主接线对发电机主保护方案进行了分析研究，提出了发变组主保护方案，并初步确定了发电机中性点CT配置方案。同时也对主要的后备保护及异常运行保护进行了分析，并提出了设置方案。     

泥沙起动条件及机理的非线性研究

 分析了单颗粒、均匀沙及非均匀沙的起动现象及其机理，认为泥沙的起动属于突变论研究的范畴。从泥沙起动所遵循起动条件的力学规律出发，导出泥沙起动条件方程。在此基础上，利用尖点突变性质对各种泥沙起动现象及机理进行了描述和说明。     

Impact of dams on point bar habitat: a case for the extirpation of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle,C. hirticollis abrupta

Quantitative analyses of flow and stage data, remote sensing and geographic information systems analysis, and field studies were used to assess the impact of dams and diversions on the point bar habitat of the Sacramento Valley Tiger Beetle (Cicindela hirticollis abrupta). The reaches of interest include sites of known historic populations of C. h. abrupta along the Sacramento River from approximately 8 km north of Colusa southward to the confluence with the Feather River and along the Feather River between Yuba City and its confluence with the Sacramento River. The results from this study show that construction of two major dams has altered flows such that prolonged and increased flows during summer, fall, and early winter have most likely disrupted life cycles, flooded larvae, drowned overwintering adults and led to high mortality. Additionally, habitat availability has decreased over time because point bars have decreased in number and area causing increased distances between populations and isolation of populations. Moreover, point bar armouring, channel scouring, altered flows, redirected flows through weirs, and lithologic controls have produced a bimodal distribution of mean grain sizes in the Sacramento River in which the more northern bars contain gravel deposits and more southern bars possess fine sands. These conditions negatively alter moisture retention and sediment compaction and, consequently, burrowing conditions needed by this tiger beetle. Additionally, more stabilized flows (reduced variability) and increased fine‐grained deposition have enabled development and encroachment of vegetation onto the sand bars. Finally, human stresses, such as foot traffic and vehicular traffic may have interfered with burrowing, ovipositing, and foraging. The combination of these stress factors has most likely led to a reduction in source populations and, ultimately, the apparent extirpation of the entire metapopulation. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河下游稳定主槽之节点整治

稳定主槽是当前黄河下游河道治理的关键。窄深河槽具有很强的泄洪能力与输沙能力,是主槽整治追求的目标。黄河下游均是顺直微弯河道,河道水流最基本的主导机理是沿着阻力最小的方向流动,走直路、走近路,主槽整治设计流路应以顺直为上策。当前有必要对微弯整治方案进行再认识,实现对其否定之否定的提高。控制性弯道整治、对口丁坝整治、节点整治都属于双岸整治的范畴,对双岸整治的方向应予肯定。今后的整治应从微弯整治向节点整治发展,逐步过渡到以节点整治为主,最终达到稳定河势流路、高效排洪输沙之目的。     

Another view on optimal design for estimating the point of extremum in quadratic regression

In this paper we illustrate how certain design problems can be simplified by reparametrization of the response function. This alternative viewpoint provides further insights than the more traditional approaches, like minimax, Bayesian or sequential techniques. It will also improve a practitioner’s understanding of more general situations and their “classical” treatment.     

随机存货决策中的安全库存研究

在有短缺成本下 ,讨论了再定购点的确定 ,着重分析了安全库存的一种简易计算。