工程项目计划管理系统设计与实现

本文通过研究分析工程项目管理的具体运行过程,采用结构化分析方法对工程项目组织机构、业务活动进行了详细的系统分析,建立了工程项目计划管理系统基本数据库,具体实现了工程项目计划管理系统的各功能模块,提出运用计算机辅助决策技术开发工程项目计划管理系统的必要性和可行性.     

Refining the debate on GM crops using technological foresight—the Danish experience

Rapid developments in and the controversial nature of biotechnology call for communication, networks, partnerships, and collaboration in research, not just among researchers, but also between researchers and research “users” in industry, government, and elsewhere. Technological foresight appears to offer a coordinating method for developing and strengthening those linkages. To test this, a technological foresight study was performed on genetically modified (GM) crop technology in the Danish context. The background of the study was the conflict and intense debate in Denmark over applications of gene technology, especially over the deliberate release of genetically modified (GM) crops. However, the current debate characteristically involves sharply opposed fronts, lacking willingness and courage to engage in a free-flowing and open-minded debate on both rational and normative components of biosafety. In it, stakeholders and experts on both side of the conflict advocate widely differing opinions. Without a proper generally intelligible dialogue, the broader public audience finds it hard to comprehend this type of debate. The study pursues the notion that public dialogue can act as a driver of future applications in the technological domain, specifically GM crops. The study concluded with a stakeholder workshop that revealed three key issues that might provide helpful starting points for a more free-flowing and open-minded debate about the future of GM crops. The issues were those arising from the following statements: a broad perspective on risk is crucial; international regulation must make allowance for developing countries; a better configuration of the risk debate is needed. These issues are discussed in more details in the article.     

渭北旱塬区典型测井地下水埋深的灰色预测研究

地下水埋深变化是地下水系统动态变化最主要的表现形式之一,通过预测地下水埋深分析地下水系统未来演变趋势,对合理开发、持续利用地下水资源有着重要的现实意义。本文选取2000-2010年渭北旱塬区的两个典型监测井的地下水埋深数据,用灰色GM(1,1)理论建立预测模型,并对该监测井的地下水埋深进行短期预测。经检验,该模型具有较高的预测精度,说明采用灰色理论预测渭北旱塬区监测井地下水埋深的方法可行。     

Major Psychological Factors Affecting Acceptance of New Breeding Techniques for Crops

New plant biotechnologies called new breeding techniques (NBT), which will follow the present genetically modified (GM) technology, have appeared and are attracting attention worldwide. The first purpose of this study was to show consumer attitudes toward traditional plant breeding, GM, and NBT crops. The second purpose was to verify the validity of a psychological model determining the acceptance of NBT crops. A survey was conducted in Japan with 657 randomly selected adult participants. The results showed that perceived risk, perceived benefit, trust, sense of bioethics, anxiety, and anger play an important role in the personal and public acceptance of NBT and indicated that trust and anxiety are especially important factors in both situations.     

我国金融创新人才的需求预测

金融业在现代经济中发挥着极其重要的作用,而金融创新是金融业持续发展的源泉,人才又是金融创新的关键。文章首先运用GM(1,1)模型对我国2012年-2020年金融业人才需求量做了预测,随后根据2009年金融创新人才的占比,以金融业从业人员的平均增长速度作为金融创新人才需求量的平均增长速度推算出了2012年-2020年金融创新人才需求量的占比,最后根据金融业人才需求量和金融创新人才需求量的占比预测出了2012年-2020年金融创新人才需求量,并根据预测结果提出了相关的建议。     

基于GM(1.1)模型的西宁市商品房价格预测研究

采用西宁市1999-2008年商品房价格数据,以灰色系统理论为基础,利用GM(1,1)模型对西宁市商品房价格进行了预测。结果表明:未来5年西宁市商品房价格仍将呈上涨趋势。     

房价变动优化分析

为预测未来房价的变动范围,根据往年的房价应用GM(1,1)模型,并结合灰色-马尔科夫模型对房价进行预测。考虑到影响房价的诸多因素变量,对给定的多个因素应用回归分析加以确定。从市场投机因素和政府的调控手段出发优化模型,通过模型分析给出合理的建议。     

政府在耕地减少中的责任和在耕地保护中的作为

集成曲线估计模型和灰色数列模型,研究耕地总量在1983-2006年间的变化过程以及在2010～2020年间的变化态势,分析政府行为在耕地总量减少中的责任和在保护耕地中的作为.研究结果:2020年耕地总量可能低于新的耕地红线,政府对耕地减少负有不可推卸的责任.     

A Conjoint/Logit Analysis of Consumers’ Responses to Genetically Modified Tofu in Taiwan

We use data collected from a consumer survey of face‐to‐face interviews to determine consumer demand for genetically modified (GM) tofu attributes in Taiwan. Conjoint analysis using logit models reveals that, on average, brand is the most important attribute in terms of influence on consumers’ preferences, followed by price, with GM content having the least influence. However, the analysis also reveals three distinct market segments for tofu. Apart from the largest segment (which reflects the average lack of concern about GM food), the remaining two segments are split according to their preference or antipathy towards GM tofu. This result suggests that GM labelling is helpful to Taiwanese tofu consumers.     

海南城乡居民消费水平差异性分析和预测

从1985-2018年海南城乡居民收入、消费数据出发,分别建立消费关于收入、消费差距关于收入差距的自回归模型,结果表明农村居民当期消费更易受近期收入和消费水平的影响,具有不稳定性。再利用GM(1,1)模型预测城乡居民收入差距,结合自回归模型,完成未来10年海南城乡消费差距的预测：收入差距和消费差距将呈直线递增趋势,收入差距的增幅高于消费差距增幅。缩小海南城乡居民消费差距的根本途径在于缩小收入差距,应因地制宜,切实提高农民收入水平。