Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

基于“天空地”一体化技术的安全监测系统建设与应用

西藏江达县白格村金沙江右岸于2018年10月11日和2018年11月3日先后发生2次大规模滑坡—堰塞湖堵江事件,溃堰洪水对下游拉哇库区不良地质体的稳定性造成不同程度的影响。为保障下游水电站建设安全,对拉哇库区主要不良地质体建立了基于星载InSAR技术、无人机技术和地面传感器实时监测的“天空地”一体化监测预警体系,以多维空间采集技术获取变形信息,通过智能监控平台对信息及时进行处理、分析和可视化呈现,利用平台、短信等方式向相关人员进行分级告警,取得了较好的应用效果。     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.     

乐滩灌区输水隧洞穿合山煤矿采空区处理设计

分析了乐滩灌区工程北干渠溯河隧洞段长约1.06 km穿合山煤矿采空区的地质情况.借鉴高速公路煤矿采空区的成功处理经验,通过科学分析,对采空区变形和区域内覆岩的稳定性做了评价,论述了输水线路穿采空区段采取全充填压力注浆法的工程处理方法.     

珠江河口区水环境整体数学模型研究

根据珠江河口区的特点，建立了珠江河口区水流，泥沙及含氟度的整体联解数学模型，探讨了联解的计算模式；利用珠江三角洲和河口区水流泥沙、含氟度连续条件，把珠江三角洲网河区一维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型和河口区二维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型进行联解。同时采用最新的地形资料并选用洪、中、枯水及大、中、小潮等多种水文组合条件对该模型进行分区验证和整体验证，模型验证成果满足精度要求。     

胶性材料在混凝土坝裂缝处理中的应用

介绍了观音阁坝被埋水下6年越冬停浇面水平裂缝采用“粘贴T1密封胶及表面粘三元乙丙后锚固”的处理方案。结果表明,利用胶性材料处理运行中的重力坝迎水面裂缝,技术可靠,方法简单,经济合理。     

Design Methodology and Area Sensitivity Analysis of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands

An approach is presented to satisfy the demand for simple criteria, guidelines and models for the preliminary sizing of horizontal subsurface flow (SF) constructed wetland systems. This approach eliminates time-consuming calculations and iterations by providing graphical solutions for wetland system sizing. Therefore, it can be used for the preliminary assessment of new or performance evaluation of existing subsurface flow constructed wetland systems. The validity of this methodology is checked with data from existing systems and is found to be quite satisfactory. This methodology is combined with simple equations predicting the maximum wetland capacity in summer, so as to assist designers in sizing installations in tourist areas with increased summer populations. Furthermore, based on this methodology, a sensitivity analysis is performed of the area requirements for wastewaters of various strengths and various design conditions and performance criteria. The results provide a useful overview to engineers and further simplify the design methodology of new subsurface flow constructed wetland systems.     

三峡三期工程主坝大体积混凝土内部温度控制

三峡右岸三期工程施工中,为了有效控制坝体大体积混凝土内部温升,采取了高温季节使用预冷混凝土浇筑、控制混凝土出机口温度及浇筑温度、对混凝土内部人工通水进行初冷、中冷和后冷等措施。三峡三期工程大坝混凝土内部温度没有出现超标现象,混凝土温控工作取得了良好的效果。     

工程建设的新特点与中国三峡总公司的可持续发展

本文介绍了三峡工程进入2002年后工程建设的新特点,并对工程下一步两个重点项目三期截流和碾压混凝土围堰的技术难点和工期安排做了深入分析。另外,作者根据国家电力体制改革的重要内容,以及中国三峡总公司自身情况,对公司未来的可持续发展之路亦做了深入探讨。借助中国三峡总公司的品牌优势和资本实力,吸收其它形式的能源,优化能源结构;进一步降低工程造价,提高三峡电价在电力市场的竞争力;依靠科学管理,实现电力生产利润最大化,深化内部改革等措施,促进中国三峡总公司可持续发展。     

辽宁省白石水库主要地质问题综述

本文着重就区域构造稳定性、水库渗漏、坝线比选、坝基地层岩性、坝基地质构造、坝基缓倾角结构面、坝基渗漏与渗透稳定、大坝下游冲刷坑、天然建筑材料等主要地质问题进行了综合评述。