新基建发展对产业升级的影响机制研究

新基建作为现代化基础设施体系的重要组成部分，已经成为中国经济高质量发展的重要支撑。基于2015—2021年中国71个城市的面板数据，构建双向固定效应、中介效应和调节效应三种回归模型，实证检验新基建发展对城市产业结构水平的影响及内在机制。研究发现：新基建发展能促进产业高级化水平，改善不合理的产业结构状态，提升产业合理化水平；新基建通过发展物联网和激励城市研发创新两种间接路径对产业结构转型升级产生积极影响；新基建对产业结构水平的影响受到地方政府干预行为的调节作用，在地方政府合理的行政管理下，新基建对产业转型升级的积极作用更为明显；新基建发展对产业结构水平的提升作用具有区域异质性和城市规模异质性，在中西部地区和大城市地区的作用效果更为明显。     

Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Technologies in caregiving: professionals’ strategies for engaging with new technology

This article explores the adoption of new technology in organisations that provide senior citizen care. Inspired by Niklas Luhmann’s systems theory, we study how technology reduces complexity by identifying client needs and ensuring predictability in service delivery. However, how technologies are adopted in practice is not determined by technology since it is also structured by care-workers' continuous decision-making. Against this backdrop, we explore how technologies alter the conditions for decision-making in two settings of elderly care, and we describe how care workers seek to adapt technologies to their practical needs as well as conception of care ethics. Developing a systems theory approach, the article eschews a priori assumptions of technological constraint on care-workers’ professional autonomy, offering a more open-ended exploration of diversified strategies for coping with new technology. Our case studies show that employees develop diversified strategies for technology adoption, including both non-usage, heated resistance, excessive embrace, and creative adaption.     

经济新常态下煤炭企业发展战略研究

着眼于当前我国煤炭企业的新环境,我们要转变视角,致力于探索推动我国煤炭行业发展的新途径和新方法,为了更好地保护矿工的合法权益,保障煤炭行业的可持续发展,煤炭企业需要引进一些创新性技术和先进管理理念。论文主要基于关心矿工生命安全和煤炭企业安全发展的角度,对目前我国煤炭企业的发展提出一些思考和策略。     

新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障战略对策

进入新发展阶段，中国水资源安全保障需要以“节水优先、空间均衡、系统治理、两手发力”治水思路为指导，厘清问题、研判趋势、优化对策，支撑新阶段水利高质量发展。本文在全面分析我国水资源安全保障存在的突出问题与面临形势基础上，阐述了新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障的基本思路与战略路径，从保证资源安全、构建国家水网、强化供水保障、建设美丽河湖、改善水环境质量等方面提出了战略对策和需要进一步回答的重大问题，以期为完善新发展阶段中国水资源安全保障战略，全面提高国家水资源安全保障能力提供有力支撑。     

Inflation,real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters

Expectations are at the centre of modern macroeconomic theory and policymakers. In this article, we examine the predictive ability and the consistency properties of macroeconomic expectations using data of the European Central Bank (ECB) Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). In particular, we provide evidence on the properties of forecasts for three key macroeconomic variables: the inflation rate, the growth rate of real gross domestic product and the unemployment rate.     

基于“天空地”一体化技术的安全监测系统建设与应用

西藏江达县白格村金沙江右岸于2018年10月11日和2018年11月3日先后发生2次大规模滑坡—堰塞湖堵江事件,溃堰洪水对下游拉哇库区不良地质体的稳定性造成不同程度的影响。为保障下游水电站建设安全,对拉哇库区主要不良地质体建立了基于星载InSAR技术、无人机技术和地面传感器实时监测的“天空地”一体化监测预警体系,以多维空间采集技术获取变形信息,通过智能监控平台对信息及时进行处理、分析和可视化呈现,利用平台、短信等方式向相关人员进行分级告警,取得了较好的应用效果。     

新时代背景下创建党建引领基层社会治理新模式的探索——以兰州市城关区为例

随着我国社会发展的不断推进与创新,对于执政基础的巩固、在最大限度内保证党的执政能力等均成为使基层党建可以获得良好效果的主要手段,并且使工作在不断的实践探索中获得更好的成效。但是,以党建引领基层社会治理的过程仍然存在众多问题,其中包括形式化严重以及做表面功夫等。因此,如何在新时代的背景下,通过党的全面领导将党与群众紧密地联系在一起,从而确保党建工作可以在基层发挥更强的社会治理职能,已成为基层社会治理模式探索并创新的主要内容。     

新进入者如何在版权引进市场中有所作为

外版书引进在近现代中国出版史上具有非常重要的地位。我国版权贸易市场渐趋稳定的力量对比格局，给新进入者造成了不小的困惑：好版权抢不到，差版权没法要，夹缝中求生存异常艰难。新入者要改变这种困境就要精准定位，必须贴合本单位现有的资源基础，必须借助社会化分工并灵活创新。     

Re‐vitalizing money demand in the Euro area. Still valid at the zero‐lower bound

The analysis of monetary developments has always been a cornerstone of the ECB's monetary analysis and, thus, of its overall monetary policy strategy. In this respect, money demand models provide a framework for explaining monetary developments and assessing price stability over the medium term. It is a well‐documented fact in the literature that, when interest rates are at the zero‐lower bound, the analysis of money stocks become even more important for monetary policy. Therefore, this paper re‐investigates the stability properties of M3 demand in the euro area in the light of the recent economic crisis. A cointegration analysis is performed over the sample period 1983 Q1 and 2015 Q1 and leads to a well‐identified model comprising real money balances, income, the long‐term interest rate and the own rate of M3 holdings. The specification appears to be robust against the Lucas critique of a policy dependent parameter regime, in the sense that no signs of breaks can be found when interest rates reach the zero‐lower bound. Furthermore, deviations of M3 from its equilibrium level do not point to substantial inflation pressure at the end of the sample. Excess liquidity models turn out to outperform the autoregressive benchmark, as they deliver more accurate CPI inflation forecasts, especially at the longer horizons. The inclusion of unconventional monetary policy measures does not contradict these findings.