考虑社会责任的异质有限理性制造商产量博弈均衡复杂动力学分析

通过考虑消费者剩余,企业利润中引入承担社会责任参数,建立了具有异质性有限理性的古诺寡头博弈竞争模型,分析利润相关参数对系统博弈均衡稳定性的影响,并进行了数值模拟。研究表明单方有限理性系统比双方有限理性系统稳定。产品成本超过一定阈值应避免产量竞争,可以通过承担社会责任,提升产品价格来增加利润,但当企业承担社会责任增加时,系统稳定性降低。此时降低调整产量的速度,观察竞争对手产量调整速度,避免系统进入混沌状态,失去最优产量优势。     

Modeling Disinterest and Dislike: A Bounded Bayesian Mixed Logit Model of the UK Market for GM Food

Mixed logit models represent a powerful discrete choice analytical model but require assumptions about the functional form of the parameter distributions. The use of unbounded distributions, such as the normal distribution, may be regarded as unsuitable where theory indicates that all are negatively affected by increases in an attribute, such as price. Bounded distributions such as the triangular and log-normal are unable to model the case where a section of the population is indifferent towards an attribute, while the remainder are negatively disposed toward it. Train and Sonnier’s bounded mixed logit model accommodates these features and is employed in this paper. A censored normal and Johnson’s S_b distribution are used to model preferences in the UK for food attributes, including price and GM technology. Bi-modal distributions are identified regarding GM food: some are unlikely to ever consume it, some are close to indifference and willing to consume at relatively small discounts while the remainder are fairly unresponsive to further price reductions.     

Low information nash equilibria for oligopolistic markets

This paper deals with an infinite horizon n firm oligopoly in which firms are assumed to have incomplete information about one another's actions and profit functions. An equilibrium concept is defined that is similar to the Nash non-cooperative equilibrium, but is suitable for the information assumptions of the model. The equilibrium uses a type of bounded rationality which makes firms' computations relatively easy. This is due to an implicit assumption that computation is costly and a Bayesian approach is prohibitively costly. This low information Nash equilibrium is proved to exist, and, in addition, an adaptive expectations decision process is described which, if followed by all firms, leads to the low information Nash equilibrium.     

有界灰数空间的完备性可分性与局部紧性

本文首先指出有界灰数对于四则运算不具备封闭性。证明了有界灰数所构成的空间(G(?),D)是可分的,局部紧的完备度量空间。     

“经济人”分析范式内含的理性悖论——长远利益、为己利他与行为理性的理解

"经济人"分析范式在理性概念的使用上存在明显的逻辑悖论:基于行为功利主义的定义以及由此展开的行为分析,实质上使用的是有限理性,而在理性模型的构建和宏观经济的分析上实际使用的却是完全理性。正是由于在不同场合所使用理性内涵存在如此的不一致,现代主流经济学对短期的行为评价和长期的现象预测之间就出现了断裂。而且,现代主流经济学试图用"无形的手"将两者沟通起来,却一直无法说明"无形的手"是如何运作的。相反,基于长期利益的实现程度和"为己利他"行为机理的实施程度这一视域,可以更好地区别有限理性和完全理性这两个概念,可以更好地认识现实生活中各种行为的理性程度,从而理解社会中不同程度的合作现象。     

Myopia and saliency in renewable resource management

An important challenge in managing renewable resources is to understand why owners and managers sometimes make decisions that deplete resources and future earnings, such as when graziers allow pastures and land condition to be degraded. In this paper, we test two potential reasons for unsustainable management practices, myopia and salience, with each explaining why resource managers may exhibit impatience in harvest decisions. Myopia is associated with decision makers placing lower weight on future outcomes than would be implied by their pure time preference. Salience is associated with overweighting of consumption ‘now’, implying inconsistency in time preferences. To test for these effects on renewable resource management, an incentivised, dynamic field experiment was carried out with rangeland grazing enterprise owners in north‐eastern Australia that related management choices with uncertain rainfall events to both profits and land condition over time. Results demonstrate that respondents exhibiting myopia/salience in their choices tended to achieve lower cumulative scores in the experiment, as well as lower land conditions on their properties as measured with remote sensing data. Our results explain why there may be persistent optimisation failures by resource owners that reduce both profits and environmental outcomes.     

Pricing a rural development program: uncertainty,indifference, and protest behaviors

This article presents an econometric approach to modeling uncertainty, unwillingness to pay, and protest behavior in contingent valuation studies. For that purpose, a mixture model with sample selection is developed for a multiple‐bounded uncertainty elicitation format. The proposed theoretical framework is applied to evaluate the social welfare impact of implementing a sustainable rural development program. Results show that a “naive” analytical approach that excludes protesters from the analysis would result in significantly higher willingness to pay estimates for those individuals who favor the implementation of the program and agree to reveal their true reservation prices.     

Optimal growth and impatience: A phase diagram analysis

When the time preference exhibits decreasing marginal impatience, the rate at which the discount function decreases plays a central role in the stability analysis. This paper shows that if the discount function is strictly decreasing, strictly convex and has a uniform bound on its first derivative, then the continuous-time, one-sector optimal growth problem has a unique steady state that exhibits the saddle-point property. Moreover, the phase diagram analysis is geometrically similar to the case of a constant discount rate. The proposed bounded slope assumption is inspired by and in direct contrast with Magill and Nishimura's "division of countries" example.     

INDIFFERENCE PRICE WITH GENERAL SEMIMARTINGALES

Using duality methods, we prove several key properties of the indifference price π for contingent claims. The underlying market model is very general and the mathematical formulation is based on a duality naturally induced by the problem. In particular, the indifference price π turns out to be a convex risk measure on the Orlicz space induced by the utility function.     

Clarence Ayres’s Critique of Orthodox Economic Theory

Mainstream economists and liberal politicians are criticizing the Third Way as it is being applied in the Netherlands. They argue that mutual consultation precludes an efficient adaptation to disturbances. The present study analyzes changes in wage and income policy in the Netherlands until 2005. It finds that wage and income policy has proven to be flexible enough to address “new” challenges in the Netherlands. The flexibility is rooted in a culture of tolerance that allows for some breaking of working rules. The latter arises from bounded socialization, that is, the imperfect transmission of information with respect to social working rules that result in similar but not identical copies of institutions.