Trade networks and economic fluctuations in Asian countries

The paper presents a new methodology, based on tensor decomposition, to map dynamic trade networks and to assess its strength in forecasting economic fluctuations at different periods of time in Asia. Using the monthly merchandise import and export data across 33 Asian economies, together with the US, EU and UK, we detect the community structure of the evolving network and we identify clusters and central nodes inside each of them. Our findings show that data are well represented by two communities, in which People's Republic of China and Japan play the major role. We then analyze the synchronisation between GDP growth and trade. Furthermore we apply our model to the prediction of economic fluctuations. Our findings show that the model leads to an increase in predictive accuracy, as higher order interactions between countries are taken into account.     

电磁精细探测法在隐伏型导水地质裂缝勘探中的应用

针对传统隐伏型导水地质裂缝勘探方法存在勘测精度较差的问题,提出电磁精细探测法探析隐伏型导水地质裂缝。依照屏蔽系数、实测场强和理论场强数据绘制综合曲线图,通过该图获取隐伏型导水地质裂缝所处位置几何阴影范围,采用层析成像法得到网格化的工作面,获取隐伏型导水地质图像。通过图像直接观测隐伏型导水地质工作面裂缝所处位置,在此基础上,观测四个电磁场分量,采用正交电磁场分量计算介质视电阻率,依据计算视电阻率数值和视电阻率分布状态研究裂缝发育情况和裂缝富水程度。结果表明:采用该方法能较为精准地获取隐伏型导水地质裂缝位置。通过裂缝位置进一步检测出隐伏型导水地质裂缝最大发育高度为63.5 m。当视电阻数值不断增加时,隐伏型导水地质裂缝和裂缝富水性逐渐减小,与实际情况较为相符,说明该种方法探析效果较好。     

Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using CANARY event detection software for water quality analysis in the Milwaukee River

Urban water sources are susceptible to various contamination events as a result of natural, accidental, and human-induced occurrences. An early warning monitoring system provides timely information on changes in urban water quality. In this study, an analysis was made with CANARY event detection software (EDS) to monitor water quality parameters in river water and to identify the onset of anomalous water quality periods. Water quality signals including pH, conductivity, and turbidity from the Milwaukee River over specified periods during the summer season of 2018–2020 were employed as inputs to event detection algorithms in CANARY. The data analysis results show that CANARY can be useful as an early warning system for monitoring contamination in urban water sources and help to identify abnormal conditions quickly. The sensibility of the model relies on optimizing the configuration parameters, which involves selecting the ideal set of parameters for the event detection algorithm and adjusting the BED parameters to increase or decrease the probability of generating an alarm. The number of events reported between the Linear Prediction Correction Filter (LPCF) and Multivariate Nearest Neighbor (MVNN) algorithms varied as a result of different residual calculation mechanisms. Climate factors that contributed to the abnormal water quality events in the river were examined. The analysis of rainfall on water quality was carried out using a statistical method by determining whether there is a significant difference (p-value) between the seasonal mean water quality data and the mean value of water parameters during the sampling duration. Regression analysis was also performed to estimate the best model that describes the relationship between each of the water quality parameters and temperature.     

沥青混凝土心墙坝渗漏检测及防渗体系修复综述

针对部分沥青混凝土心墙坝出现渗漏情况,为判定沥青混凝土心墙坝渗漏的部位及通道,需采用多种检测方法对坝体渗漏情况进行综合分析和判定。列举了多个工程应用实例,对沥青混凝土心墙坝渗漏检测方法如水下声纳检测、孔内彩电观测、示踪连通试验、坝体内水位分析和物探检测,以及混凝土防渗墙和控制灌浆修复坝体防渗体系方案及其影响因素进行了综述,以期为类似工程提供借鉴。     

引调水工程实体质量检测技术及其应用

针对引调水工程建设和运行设施特点,应在工程建设期直至运营管理期对引调水工程适时进行无损检测,并对其建筑物质量进行评价和监督。详细介绍了工程设施实体质量无损检测的主要内容、适用方法及检测结论等,为工程实体质量控制以及工程建设整体质量保证进行了有益的探索。通过工程应用实例验证,说明工程建设和安全运行期间的实体质量检测可判定所检测出的工程质量问题缺陷是否应及时进行修复和处理,从而为质量控制和质量保证提供了可靠的科学依据。     

基于应变传递率的管道结构损伤识别研究

为了研究海底管道损伤识别的分布式监测方法,在标量传递率概念的基础上提出了应变传递率概念和相应的损伤识别方法来对海底管道进行损伤识别,并通过有限元模型模拟对该方法进行了验证。对管道模型的不同损伤程度进行了分析,对比发现该方法相比加速度传递率和理论传递率对损伤程度更加灵敏。对不同边界条件进行分析,发现该方法对损伤位置的识别不受边界条件的影响。对参考单元的选取进行了验证分析,验证了参考单元应选择远离反弯点的非损伤位置。     

三维激光扫描技术在引水隧洞检修中的应用

三维激光扫描技术是国际上近年发展的一项集光、电和计算机技术于一体的新技术,利用该技术可以快速、精确地获取空间数据。锦屏二级水电站引水隧洞放空检修时发现少数洞内存在混凝土破损情况,但受时间与费用等因素限制,难于以采用常规手段详细检查混凝土表面缺陷与变形等问题。通过采用三维激光扫描技术对隧洞进行全断面扫描,及时探查了混凝土表面的缺陷并进行了处理,确保了工程安全运行;同时,还得到混凝土表面的三维坐标信息,建立了混凝土表面缺陷基准数据库,可为后续进一步分析混凝土表面缺陷的变化情况提供参考。     

基于电站最优维护信息系统的机组机械振动分析

葛洲坝水电站是我国在长江干流上自主设计的第一座大型水电站,共安装有2台单机容量为175 MW、19台单机容量为125 MW（改造前）、1台装机容量为20 MW的轴流转桨式水轮发电机组。从首台机组发电至今,葛洲坝电厂累计运行超过35 a。长时间的运行使机组出现老龄化的同时也存在着稳定性、安全性方面的隐患。基于电站最优维护信息系统(HOMIS),对葛洲坝电厂10号机组进行了状态检测,结果发现机组存在上导X/Y向摆度、水导X/Y向摆度过大的问题,为此,借助于HOMIS集成的快速傅里叶变换函数进行诊断,结果诊断出上导、水导摆度的主频为1 Hz,表明该现象为主轴或其附件引起的机械故障。依据机组诊断结论,经分析研究,提出了适宜的检修方案,并根据方案最终对磨损连杆进行了更换处理。最后,对检修前后的机组状态进行了对比,对比结果表明,检修质量达到了预期目标。     

基于压实度保证率的砾石土压实度快速检测法优化

砾石土心墙料压实度指标是砾石土心墙大坝工程质量控制的一个关键指标,常借助核子密度仪进行快速检测。鉴于砾石土的非均质特性,常规方法利用最大干密度均值求取的压实度为近似值,当实际最大干密度大于最大干密度均值时,压实度计算值偏大,易引起误判,影响工程质量。提出了压实度保证率概念,通过压实度及压实度保证率双控指标,对常规方法进行优化,明确了优化方法的评定流程及判定准则。并结合两河口水电站工程实例,论证了常规方法仅为优化方法的一种特殊表现形式。通过两河口水电站工程2019年3月份实测数据对比分析发现：采用常规方法检测的压实度均一次检验合格,而采用优化方法检测时,存在个别不合格点,需进一步复测。优化方法较常规方法更为严格,提高了工程安全裕度,保障了工程质量。