MODELING SOVEREIGN RISKS: FROM A HYBRID MODEL TO THE GENERALIZED DENSITY APPROACH

Motivated by the European sovereign debt crisis, we propose a hybrid sovereign default model that combines an accessible part taking into account the evolution of the sovereign solvency and the impact of critical political events, and a totally inaccessible part for the idiosyncratic credit risk. We obtain closed‐form formulas for the probability that the default occurs at critical political dates in a Markovian setting. Moreover, we introduce a generalized density framework for the hybrid default time and deduce the compensator process of default. Finally, we apply the hybrid model and the generalized density to the valuation of sovereign bonds and explain the significant jumps in long‐term government bond yields during the sovereign crisis.     

Advertising to the masses: the effects of crowding on the attention to place-based advertising

Advertising situated in environments where people congregate or pass through on their way to somewhere else benefit from being placed in such high traffic areas. However, these strategically placed ads also suffer from conditions of human crowding that prevents them from being noticed and processed. We undertake a study of place-based advertising in a shopping mall using facial recognition software to determine the effect of human density on the attention directed to advertising. We find that as human density increases, attention to advertising decreases, but only to a point where it begins to increase again. Our research also finds that human density plays a moderating role on the motivation to process advertising.     

基于云概率密度分布估计的大坝监测数据分析

大坝运行监测易受自然环境和监测条件影响，存在时间和空间上的变异性，监测数据具有不确定性。以云理论的随机性和不确定性分析方法为基础，并与空间数据辐射思想相结合，建立了云滴概率密度分布估计模型，然后导出云概率密度分布函数，依据样本监测数据推求母体空间数据的分布特征，并设计了基于逆向云算法云变换的计算程序。分析陆浑水库1979~1999年测压管监测数据和位移变形数据的云概率密度分布特征和云数字特征，得出了20 a来大坝的数据分布特征和运行状态。监测数据分析结果表明，云概率密度分布估计不仅能有效合理地分析大坝的运行状态，而且能够依据云数字特征来判断监测状态和监测环境的异常变化。      

有植被的河道水流紊动特性模型试验研究

通过物理模型试验,研究了有植被的河道水流紊动特性.试验结果表明,在复式断面河道滩地种植柔性植被后,滩地糙率增大,水流紊动更为剧烈,河道水流紊动强度峰值由原先的滩槽交界区转移到滩地区.滩地的水流紊动强度沿程递减;滩槽交界区的水流紊动强度沿程不断增大;主槽的水流紊动强度主要与床面糙率有关,滩地植被影响了滩地水流的归槽时间,使主槽水流流速沿程增大.     

珠江河口区水环境整体数学模型研究

根据珠江河口区的特点，建立了珠江河口区水流，泥沙及含氟度的整体联解数学模型，探讨了联解的计算模式；利用珠江三角洲和河口区水流泥沙、含氟度连续条件，把珠江三角洲网河区一维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型和河口区二维水沙、含氟度输移数学模型进行联解。同时采用最新的地形资料并选用洪、中、枯水及大、中、小潮等多种水文组合条件对该模型进行分区验证和整体验证，模型验证成果满足精度要求。     

非稳定井流模型的半解析解

为了提高非稳定渗流计算的计算精度 ,通过数学分析得到了水位传导系数随时间变化时 ,一类非稳定渗流井流模型的半解析解 ,并进行了计算比较     

零售企业敏捷供应链系统CSS-SCM的研究

供应链核心在于实现供应链环节中的信息沟通，数据互换和协同工作，改造和整合企业的业务流程，因此供应链系统模型应该具有动态可重构的特点，系统主体的构成也应反映这种思想，在系统中引入“大规模定制”，“工作流”的新思想和“异构系统兼容”，“通用报表”以及“三层架构应用体系及开发手段”等新技术将使供应链系统更为“敏捷”。     

Design Methodology and Area Sensitivity Analysis of Horizontal Subsurface Flow Constructed Wetlands

An approach is presented to satisfy the demand for simple criteria, guidelines and models for the preliminary sizing of horizontal subsurface flow (SF) constructed wetland systems. This approach eliminates time-consuming calculations and iterations by providing graphical solutions for wetland system sizing. Therefore, it can be used for the preliminary assessment of new or performance evaluation of existing subsurface flow constructed wetland systems. The validity of this methodology is checked with data from existing systems and is found to be quite satisfactory. This methodology is combined with simple equations predicting the maximum wetland capacity in summer, so as to assist designers in sizing installations in tourist areas with increased summer populations. Furthermore, based on this methodology, a sensitivity analysis is performed of the area requirements for wastewaters of various strengths and various design conditions and performance criteria. The results provide a useful overview to engineers and further simplify the design methodology of new subsurface flow constructed wetland systems.     

掺气减蚀保护作用的新概念

利用针式掺气流速仪测量原型和模型掺气浓度场、流速场，气泡尺寸及其概率分布的研究成果表明，原型水流韦伯数高，形成微小气泡的能力比模型强，气泡上浮慢，接近底部的小尺寸气泡概率及掺气浓度比模型大。初步研究认为：0.2mm或0.5mm以下的微小气泡在掺气减蚀中起着主要作用，可能只要很小掺气浓度即可达到掺气减蚀的效果。因此以小尺寸气泡的掺气浓度，作为判断掺气减蚀保护作用的指标将更为准确。     

NUMERICAL INVESTIGATION ON MUD BED-GENERATION AND IMPACTING A WALL ALONG A SLOPE

In this paper mud was treated as the Bingham fluid. In staggered grids, two-dimensional incompressible Navier-Stokes equations for non-Newtonian fluid was solved by the MAC method. Numerical simulations were conducted on mud bed-generating phenomenon and mud impacting a wall along a slope. The distributions of free surface, pressure and velocity of mud and water were obtained. The results indicate that the computed layer thickness of mud bed almost equals the theoretically predicted value. Because of the differences in constitutive relationship, the distributions of free surface are different for water and mud. The distortion of water free surface is much more complicated.