吉林省特大干旱灾害对粮食的影响及其对策

本文通过分析我省历史发生的特大干旱灾害事件，论述了不同时期特大干旱对粮食产量的严重影响。提出了21世纪特大干旱的研究与对策。     

Effect of sampling density on the measurement of stream condition indicators in two lowland Australian streams

There is widespread application of indicators to the assessment of environmental condition of streams. These indicators are intended for use by managers in making various comparative and absolute assessments and often have a role in resource allocation and performance assessment. Therefore, the problem of formally defining confidence in the results is important but difficult because the sampling strategies used are commonly based on a compromise between the requirements of statistical rigour and the pragmatic issues of access and resources. It is rare to see this compromise explicitly considered and consequently there is seldom quantification of the uncertainty that could affect the confidence a manager has in an indicator. In this paper, we present a method for quantitatively assessing the tradeoffs between sampling density and uncertainty in meeting various monitoring objectives. Assessments using judgement‐based representative reaches are shown to be unreliable; instead a sampling approach is recommended based on the random selection of measuring sites. A detailed dataset was collected along two streams in Victoria, Australia, and the effect of sampling density was assessed by subsampling from this dataset with precision related to the number of sites assessed per reach length and the intensity of the sampling at each site. The sampling scheme to achieve a given precision is shown to depend on the monitoring objective. In particular, three objectives were considered: (1) making a baseline assessment of current condition; (2) change detection; and (3) detection of a critical threshold in condition. Change detection is shown to be more demanding than assessing baseline condition with additional sampling effort required to achieve the same precision. Sampling to detect a critical threshold depends on nominating acceptable values of Type I and II error and the size of the effect to be detected. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Internal-corrosion inhibitors for pipelines carrying deaerated heating water

The effect of internal-corrosion inhibitors on heating-system pipelines is investigated. Tests were conducted on a testing device for polarization measurements under conditions corresponding to the Rostov Heat-Supply System. The concentration of OEDP-zinc, which provides a high degree of protection from general corrosion, is determined. The reagent has been successfully incorporated into the Rostov No. 2 TPP. __________ Translated from élektricheskie Stantsii, No. 7, July 2007, pp. 37–43.     

安徽省旱涝急转规律的认识与研究

旱涝急转是指某一地区或某一流域发生较长时间干旱时，突遇集中强降雨，引发山洪暴发、河水陡涨．客水入侵、内水难以及时外排的一种自然现象。旱涝急转极易造成人员伤亡、水库垮坝等重大经济损失。在防汛抗旱中，安徽省要充分认识旱涝急转的危害性，加强应急管理，具体包括思想上保持高度的警觉，加快防汛抗旱工程体系和预测预警体系建设，有效应对旱涝急转。     

全球气候变暖对水资源的影响

全球气候变暖加剧了干旱、洪涝、台风等自然灾害的发生，是目前各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的热点问题。根据有关资料对气候变暖研究进展情况作相关介绍，可供参考。     

辽宁省2000年夏季干旱分析

本文针对辽宁省2000年发生的干旱,从大气环流、气候、降水、径流、水资源量等方面,较系统地阐述了各因素的发展规律、特点及物理成因。采用降水指标、径流指标、受旱率进行干旱程度分析。评价出辽宁省2000年干旱为特大干旱。     

中国的主要水问题及水文学的机遇

从水资源开发利用与保护、水旱灾害防治等方面论述中国当前存在的主要水问题：水危机和水浪费同时存在、水污染日趋严重、防洪减灾任重道远、生态环境破坏严重、全球气候变暖产生不利影响；进而论述水文学研究面临的新课题：水文现象的不确定性、人类活动对水文的影响、水位频率计算、水资源开发利用的最佳效应、水资源供需分析、农业节水灌溉机理及水旱灾害的防治，并指出必须加强对这些新课题的研究     

旱情预报技术进展与展望

受全球气候变化影响和人类活动的加剧,干旱灾害发生频次增加且强度增大,严重威胁着我国的粮食安全和水安全。准确及时的旱情预报,对于制定科学有效的干旱应对策略、减少灾害造成的损失具有重大意义。从基于数理统计模型的预报技术和基于物理机制模型的预报技术两方面入手,梳理回顾了国内外研究进展,揭示了当前预报技术所存在的问题,并提出针对性的解决方案。未来研究应注重提高干旱监测数据的质量、突破核心关键技术、构建全国旱情预报业务化系统,为抗旱减灾事业提供强有力的科技支撑。     

基于SPI的辽宁省庄河市近35年干旱演变特性研究

庄河市是辽南地区的重要水源地,分析其干旱演变特性有利于该地区水资源的合理开发与利用,对于防旱减灾、合理布局产业结构具有重要的现实意义。本文根据庄河市1984年1月1日至2018年12月31日的逐日降水数据计算了1个月、3个月、6个月、12个月共4个不同时间尺度下的标准化降水指数(SPI),并基于SPI对该地区近35年的年际与季节干旱演变特征进行了分析。结果表明:在年际变化方面,庄河市的SPI在2000年以前波动幅度较小,说明该地区的降水在时间上分布较为均匀;但自2000年以来,SPI序列出现较大的波峰与波谷,说明降雨的分布不均匀性有所增强;SPI的时间序列趋势线斜率为负值,说明该地区整体上呈现偏旱趋势,因此其水资源压力不断增大。在季节演变特征方面,夏季干旱和秋季干旱呈现增强趋势;秋旱的发生频率最高,而夏旱的出现频率最低。本研究结果可为庄河地区的抗旱减灾与水资源规划提供科学依据。     

安徽省农业旱灾脆弱性综合分析与评价

旱灾是影响安徽省农业特别是粮食生产可持续发展的重要制约因素。在相同致灾强度下,灾情会随灾害脆弱性的增强而加重,因此,研究农业旱灾脆弱性对安徽省防灾减灾和农业可持续发展具有特别重要意义。根据影响旱灾脆弱性的因素和指标体系选取的原则,选择了旱灾面积比、森林覆盖率、农村人均收入等9个指标,采用加权综合评价方法对各市旱灾脆弱性进行分析,并利用聚类分析方法进行旱灾脆弱性区划。结果表明,除合肥市、阜阳市、池州市、宿州市和黄山市5个市需要采取措施降低旱灾脆弱度外,安徽省总体上农业旱灾脆弱性较弱,有较强的抗旱承灾能力。